Let's dive right into a solid three-game slate on Tuesday night, highlighted by arguably the best matchup of the early season so far!
WNBA Odds & Picks
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| Matchup | Time |
| Aces vs. Sun | 7 p.m. ET |
| Fever vs. Sky | 8 p.m. ET |
| Sparks vs. Storm | 10 p.m. ET |
Aces vs. Sun Odds
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 167.5 -108 / -112 | -265 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 167.5 -108 / -112 | +210 |
What a showdown! The combined record for these two teams is 12-1, as they sit atop their respective conferences. It's the first real test for the Aces as well, who have yet to face any of the top four teams we have this season in the W. This was a game I was going to be looking to play the under, but the line came out right where I projected, so instead, I lean towards taking the points with the Sun in what I think should be a very close game.
The Aces haven't really been running away from their opponents lately, with a four-point win over the Fever following up a seven-point win over the Dream — two straight failed covers.
There were a few actionable player props when they were released, but all have moved to numbers that no longer have value. Just a friendly reminder to follow in the Action app (@TurveyBets) to get these bets as soon as you can, since the market for the WNBA (especially player props) often moves very fast.
Pick: Sun +6.5 |
Fever vs. Sky Odds
| Fever Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -120 | 158.5 -114 / -106 | +210 |
| Sky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -102 | 158.5 -114 / -106 | -265 |
Here are the four losses the Fever have suffered all season: twice to the 6-1 Sun, once to the 4-2 superteam Liberty, and once to the 6-0 superteam Aces. Most recently they lost by three to the Sun and four to the Aces and were right there in each game.
This Fever team is incredibly spunky and a downright juggernaut in the fourth quarter, making them a great team to beat on as an underdog (and even better to live bet). As such, I'm taking the 6.5 points against the Sky, who started the season pretty well, but are a bit short-handed for the time being. They were still able to defeat the Liberty over the weekend thanks to a stellar performance from their star, Kahleah Copper, but I don't see that as their baseline performance.
From a player prop perspective, there are a few good looks here. I love Aliyah Boston under 15.5 points (best line is at DraftKings). She has reached 16 points only once this season, and she's due for some shooting regression on top of that. Add in a tough matchup with Elizabeth Williams, and that's my best bet from this game.
On the flip side, I think NaLyssa Smith should get cooking for Indiana a bit more than the books see, and I like her over 12.5 points (best line at BetRivers), and I even like it up to a juiced 13.5.
Finally, I do like one over for the Sky, as Marina Mabrey has cleared 14.5 points prop in every game she has gotten at least 26 minutes (four of six), so this is really just a bet on her minutes stabilizing, which, in a shortened rotation, should be likely.
Bet: Boston under 15.5 points; Smith over 12.5 points; Mabrey over 14.5 points; Fever +6.5
Sparks vs. Storm Odds
| Sparks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -112 | 164.5 -115 / -105 | -158 |
| Storm Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -108 | 164.5 -115 / -105 | +128 |
This game has my favorite spread bet for Tuesday and my favorite total. These two teams are a combined 7-1 to the over this season, thanks in equal parts to both high-scoring offenses and porous defenses. When the two teams played over the weekend, the total nearly reached 180. That game had some hot 3-point shooting, but these are the worst and third-worst 3-point defenses this season. They are also the two worst defenses on 2-point shots this season — they just aren't great defensive teams overall.
The one area the Sparks have at least been decent in terms of defense, is forcing turnovers, which is better for an over. It means shorter defensive possessions and more fastbreak points. Both teams are in the top half of the league in terms of Pace. Add it all up, and I'd play this over to 168.5.
As for the side, the Sparks are a team I am consistently higher on than the market. They are 4-1 against the spread so far this season, so that has been a profitable stance, and one I'm taking again on Tuesday. The Sparks have a somewhat random collection of players that allow Curt Miller to pick his spots with this roster, playing a hot hand here, picking a good matchup there, giving extra minutes because of what he saw in practice etc., etc.
They are better than the sum of their parts in part due to Miller and in part due to their star, Nneka Ogwumike, who is playing like a top five player in the league again and is one of the easiest superstars to play alongside. Now they add Azura Stevens back for this game, which only bolsters their post offense and hopefully helps with some of the defensive issues laid out above.
Overall, I like the Sparks up to -4.5.
Pick: Sparks -3.5 |
Pick: Over 164.5 (up to 168.5) |
