After a month off, the WNBA returns with a three-game slate on Thursday, August 15.
- Mystics vs. Lynx at 8 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
- Mercury vs. Sky at 8 p.m. ET
- Liberty vs. Sparks at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Read below for my WNBA first basket predictions.
WNBA First Basket Predictions: Thursday's Best Bets, Picks
Kayla McBride First Basket (+500 at FanDuel) and Bridget Carleton First Basket (+800 at FanDuel)
The Washington Mystics have secured the first shot in only 28% of their games, the worst percentage across the league. So, let's continue to fade them in the first basket market.
Meanwhile, opponents average the most corner 3-point attempts and the third-most above-the-break 3-point attempts per game against Washington's defense. Washington does an excellent job of limiting paint attempts, which is why I’m looking to back Minnesota’s perimeter shooters.
Across the WNBA, 17 players take at least five shots per game from 3. Of that group, Kayla McBride and Bridget Carleton are the only players who clear 40% on those attempts. In other words, Minnesota possesses the two most efficient high-volume 3-point shooters. That's especially intriguing in this matchup.
McBride has taken Minnesota’s first shot in 24% of her starts, while Carleton checks in at 9.5%. Those marks are tied for second and fifth, respectively, among Minnesota's starters. That’s not a ringing endorsement for Carleton, but the matchup is too juicy to pass up.
In their only previous meeting this season, McBride took the first shot of the game and connected from 3-point range.
I recommend playing one unit on McBride and playing that down to +450 odds. On the other hand, I suggest putting half a unit on Carleton and playing that down to +700.
Breanna Stewart First Basket (+500 at FanDuel)
Nobody takes the first shot of the game more frequently than the New York Liberty (74%). Los Angeles isn’t terrible, but is certainly no match for the Liberty.
Since Cameron Brink’s injury, the Sparks have surrendered the seventh-most paint attempts per game. That’s around the middle of the pack. However, opponents have produced the third-highest paint field goal percentage. Los Angeles is struggling to defend shots near the basket, which is partly why opposing centers average the most points per game against them.
Jonquel Jones is New York’s All-Star center, but she’s a stretch five who spends plenty of time away from the rim. It’s actually Breanna Stewart who easily paces the Liberty in paint attempts. The reigning MVP has also taken New York’s first shot in 39.1% of her starts – only Teaira McCowan and Brittney Griner own larger rates (min. 15 starts) in the WNBA.
Finally, these teams have played twice this season after Brink’s injury and Stewart snagged the first shot in one of those contests.
I would put one unit on Stewart and bet that down to +450.
