We have two WNBA games scheduled for today's Fourth of July holiday, with Sun vs. Lynx set to tip off the action at 8 p.m. ET, followed by Mystics vs. Aces at 10 p.m. ET. Both matchups will stream live on Prime Video.
Our basketball betting experts have locked in five bets for tonight's doubleheader, featuring a spread pick for Connecticut-Minnesota, a total prediction for Washington-Las Vegas, as well as a trio of player props spanning the slate.
Read below for our WNBA best bets for Thursday, July 4.
WNBA Best Bets Today: Thursday, July 4
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our WNBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sun vs. Lynx
Clear sharp side emerging here on the Lynx as they travel back home after a four-game road trip. They had a really tough schedule loss after the Commissioners Cup in the finale, where they had to travel to Dallas off an emotional win and play 40 hours later on a rest disadvantage.
Then they had to go back to New York and take on the Liberty for a second time on the road trip, where it was the final game and a team they already beat.
A classic sports psychology-spot for the Liberty last game panned out. So now we get an amazing Lynx team, back at home, off two losses in their last three.
I feel we are getting a discounted price on the Lynx because the rest schedule isn't quite equal here. But, the Sun also have to travel west to take on the Lynx in this matchup.
Pick: Lynx -2.5 (-110)
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Sun vs. Lynx
By Jim Turvey
The Connecticut Sun travel to Minnesota on Thursday in a battle of two of the elite WNBA teams in 2024.
Alyssa Thomas, the reigning MVP runner-up, is certainly not shy of any moment, but I'll be looking to fade her against what has been a top-two defense in Minnesota.
This is actually a showdown between the top two defenses, and the total for this game has already dropped seven (!) points from the opening line of 157.5.
Thomas is one of those players I expect to struggle, as she really hasn't quite been herself over the past month or so. In May, AT was averaging 14.6 points and 8.7 assists, basically in line with her near-MVP season in 2023.
However, since the start of June, those averages are down to 10.6 points and 6.8 assists, due in large part to a drop in free throws, along with a small drop in overall field goal attempts.
As a result, Thomas has cleared this 19.5 combined points and assists three times in her last 12 games, and the projections I'm working on have this total at 17.2.
That is due in part to AT quieting down offensively. But also due to this juggernaut Lynx defense that allows the second-fewest points and the fewest assists per game in the entire league.
I would play this all the way down to under 17.5 even money.
Pick: Alyssa Thomas Under 19.5 Points + Assists (-130)
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Mystics vs. Aces
Myisha Hines-Allen has gone over her point-total in four straight games. That's four of her five appearances in the starting lineup this season.
It also includes an over against the Las Vegas Aces two games ago.
This could be an even worse beatdown, so her minutes might be trimmed if that's the case.
Still, she's averaging nearly 16 points per game over her last four and had three clearances (14, 16 and 21) that weren't even close to this 11.5 margin.
We'll ride the momentum here.
Pick: Myisha Hines-Allen Over 11.5 Points (-108)
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Mystics vs. Aces
Jackie Young has seen a considerable uptick in rebounding this season. The Aces guard averaged 5.6 rebounds over her first seven games. It’s worth noting that throughout her career, Young has averaged 4.0 rebounds per game.
So, how can we explain Young’s sudden surge in rebounds? The reality is, there will always be peaks and lulls when you’re dealing with a small sample size.
Young also played at least 36 minutes in five of those seven games. She’s accomplished that feat just once in her last nine games. And during that nine-game stretch, she finished with more than four rebounds only once.
It was always likely that we’d see Young’s rebounding numbers regress back to the mean.
With FanDuel offering her rebounding prop at 4.5 for Thursday’s game against the Mystics, the under still has value even with odds of -152.
Pick: Jackie Young Under 4.5 Rebounds (-152)
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Mystics vs. Aces
There seems to be a league-wide trend toward the over right now in the WNBA. I theorize it's because of a tightly packed schedule, which creates tired legs, bad defense, and more transition opportunities.
It seems backwards, but scoring actually tends to increase when players are tired.
The last Aces game closed nine points higher than it opened, and all of those games have trended upward. With this opening at 168.5 and climbing, I would grab the over here.
The Aces are on the first night of a back to back where they will travel to LA to play the Sparks on Friday. I have my eyes on Sparks ATS at open, but make sure to check back on tomorrow's best bets piece to see if I have a play!
Pick: Over 172.5 (-110)
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