Action Network contributor Jim Turvey joined host Maria Marino on the BUCKETS Podcast on Tuesday to break down the WNBA playoffs slate, including best bets from both games.
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Sun vs. Liberty Odds
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+8.5 -104 | 161.5 -113 / -113 | +320 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-8.5 -118 | 161.5 -113 / -113 | -450 |
Jim Turvey: It's interesting that both the spread and total for Game 2 opened at the same number that Game 1 opened. It signals that the books saw Game 1 and felt pretty confident with what the closing line was. The Liberty have taken a little bit of money and I think part of that is the Zig-Zag Playoff theory that we often see with the team that's trailing in the series has that extra push, but it's starting to get backed into the spread.
I lean a bit toward the Liberty, but I also lean toward the under, which makes me scared to lay double-digit points. The first game was really slow — the slowest Pace for any of the games these two teams play against one another this season. I think that does play into the Sun's hands.
To me the biggest factor (groundbreaking news) is Breanna Stewart. She hasn't looked herself the last couple of weeks, but she's been incredible in the postseason for large chunks of her career. I'm looking at her points prop tonight. Last game she shot just 28% from the field. In the eight games in which she shot 30% or worse this season, she followed it up with 45 points, 28 points, 24 points, 25 points, 25 points, 12 points, 10 points, and 27 points.
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Wings vs. Aces Odds
| Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 175.5 -113 / -113 | +470 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 175.5 -113 / -113 | -700 |
Jim Turvey: I'm not exactly on the Wings spread, but the bet I have is a similar one. I'm going with the under on the Aces team total. It's always scary betting against this team and this offense in particular, but there are some signs that make me think their point total may drop from Game 1 to Game 2.
The Aces did score 97 points in Game 1, but the actual pace was slower than some of their previous matchups this season and each team's pace this season as two pretty fast-paced teams. That's typical of the postseason — we see pace go down and field goal percentage go down — and it's that field goal percentage part that interestingly went up for the Aces. They shot 7% better on 3s than they did in the regular season and A'ja Wilson went 15-of-21 from inside. If either of those factors come back to what we're expecting, we're right around that 93-point mark.
I might even look to live-bet this because the Aces have been a team that puts up impressive totals in the first half. If you're watching this game and the Aces are making a lot of 3s but the pace is slow, I might bet on regression around halftime.
Bet: Aces Under 93.5 (-112)
