Before All-Star weekend and the Olympic break comes, we have a couple of days of WNBA action to get under our belt. Tuesday's slate gets started pretty early with an 11:30 a.m. ET matchup between the Phoenix Mercury and the Washington Mystics.
On League Pass, the Los Angeles Sparks host the Seattle Storm at 3:30 p.m. ET. And in a Prime Video doubleheader, it's a matchup you don't want to miss between two of the WNBA's hottest teams as the Connecticut Sun make a visit to the Big Apple to face the New York Liberty with a tip at 7 p.m. ET. And the Chicago Sky will end the night against A'ja Wilson and the surging Las Vegas Aces at 10 p.m. ET.
Let's get right into our WNBA best bets for Tuesday, July 16.
WNBA Best Bets Today | Tuesday, July 16
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 11:30 a.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
| 11:30 a.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
| 11:30 a.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our WNBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mercury vs. Mystics
Phoenix is the most dominant tipoff team with Brittney Griner jumping. Washington, on the other hand, takes the first shot at the lowest rate across the league.
The Mystics don't allow many paint attempts, but they do surrender the third most 3-point attempts per game and third most points per jump shot.
Taurasi paces Phoenix in shots per game from deep. She also has taken Phoenix's first attempt in 30% of her starts, which is second best on the team behind Griner.
I would play this at half a unit, down to +650 odds.
Pick: Diana Taurasi First Field Goal (+800)
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Sun vs. Liberty
This opened at 156.5 and unsurprisingly has dropped a few points.
Why still play it?
Well, it's been bet down for a reason.
These two just went 71-68 at Mohegan Sun in Connecticut less than a week ago — that's a 139 total.
Sun games generally aren't high scoring, as we've been saying all year, but even the Liberty — listed at an over/under of 78.5 — have just gone over that twice in five games.
We might be headed for another slobber knocker.
Pick: Under 152.5
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Mercury vs. Mystics
The Mystics are fun but they’re not a great team as presently constructed. They do happen to be the best team in the W in the first half though at 18-6 ATS. Despite no Shakira Austin and Brittney Sykes for most of the season, they’ve found success from folks like Ariel Atkins, who’s having a great season. Myisha Hines-Allen and Stephanie Dolson are two of just six WNBA players shooting 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from 3. Dolson is even shooting 50 percent from 3, herself.
The Mercury have dealt with injuries to Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner, both of whom seem like they’ll play, but will play their last game before heading to the Olympic break. I think the Mystics come out and surprise the Mercury who are a brutal -10.3 Net Rating on the road.
Pick: Mystics 1H +2
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Storm vs. Sparks
A 6-17 Sparks team down Cam Brink and reeling into the summer is actually in a nice spot Tuesday. L.A. is fresh off an upset win, but the market tends to assume bad teams (like the Sparks) are due to crash down to earth.
Actually, WNBA teams with awful win percentages, off an upset, under certain spread ranges, have covered 58% of the time.
There's value in backing the underdog in a projected low-scoring game, especially with Seattle in a weird, midday road spot.
Sparks +8.5 (Good to +7, -110)
Pick: Sparks +8 (-110)
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Mercury vs. Mystics
I’m also on the Mystics for the full game, although I’m just putting .75-units on this bet. I mentioned the Mystics being a great first half team, but they’re also great for the full game. Despite having just six wins this season, Washington is 16-7-1 ATS. The reason for the discrepancy is the Mystics tend to collapse in the fourth quarter specifically. Their late-game offense can be difficult and that’s where the injuries to Sykes, and Austin tend to rear their head the most.
However, the Mystics face another team that struggles in the fourth quarter in the Mercury, who have just a -1.7 Net Rating in the final frame. I’ll take the Mystics +4.5 and hope the Mercury are already picturing themselves in Paris for the Olympics.
Pick: Mystics +4.5
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