The last time the Liberty was in action, it defeated the Storm 98-85 last Friday to wrap up a three-game West Coast trip.
On Thursday, six days between games, New York returns home to again face Seattle for a chance to sweep the season series.
Meanwhile, Seattle is in the midst of an East Coast trip after playing two road games against the Sun in the last four days.
While there's no question New York already has a unique scheduling advantage, there are other factors in play that should lead to a comprehensive victory for the Liberty on Thursday night. So, let's get to my Storm vs. Liberty prediction.
Storm vs. Liberty Prediction
The Liberty will have a significant rest advantage when it hosts the Storm on Thursday night. However, the disparity in perimeter shooting between the two teams could be enough to give New York a commanding victory as a 7.5-point favorite.
Storm vs. Liberty Pick: Liberty -7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Storm vs. Liberty Odds
| Storm Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 165 -112o / -108u | +270 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 165 -112o / -108u | -355 |
Seattle Storm: Struggles Continue from Deep
Seattle's addition of forward Nneka Ogwumike almost guaranteed that the Storm wouldn't endure another 11-29 season as it did in 2023.
At 20-13, Seattle has already qualified for the playoffs while Ogwumike continues to climb up WNBA record books.
The 13-year veteran is on pace to crack the top-10 on the all-time scoring list by the end of the regular season, trailing two-time champion Katie Smith (6,452) by 57 points.
Ogwumike (17.5 PPG) gives the Storm another scoring threat behind Jewell Loyd (20.5 PPG). While that's been enough to spark a resurgence in the Emerald City, the one area it's still lacking has been on the offensive perimeter.
Seattle ranks 10th in 3-point field goals (5.8 per game) and last in 3-point shooting percentage (28.3%).
Given its struggles from the perimeter, teams that fit the Storm's profile tend to play at a slower pace to limit the number of possessions for their opponents in a game.
However, Seattle ranks third in pace (81.49 possessions per 40 minutes), which creates more of a challenge to overcome deficits when facing the better teams around the league.
New York Liberty: Dominating Both Ends of Court
The Liberty came up short last year in its quest for a first WNBA title. New York looks more determined than ever to reach the summit this season.
In addition to having the best record at 27-6, New York also has the best offensive (107.1) and defensive ratings (94.9).
This dominance resembles what we saw with the Aces last season, who also led the league in both categories. The most significant difference with New York has been on the defensive end of the court, as it's allowing 4.5 fewer points per 100 possessions.
What's impressive about New York is its versatility in playing different styles, whether fast or slow.
It ranks seventh in pace (80.39 possessions per 40 minutes) yet still has the highest offensive efficiency in the league.
New York's league-leading Effective Field Goal Percentage (52.5%) can be problematic for teams like the Storm. The Liberty averages roughly 4.5 more 3-pointers per game than Seattle.
Thus, New York has almost a 14-point advantage on the perimeter even before the teams line up for the opening tip.
In the two previous meetings, New York outshot Seattle 45-33 from beyond the arc while winning both games by double digits.
Storm vs. Liberty: Lay the Points
Betting Pick & Prediction
While it's always challenging to sweep a team in the regular season, this matchup doesn't suit the Seattle Storm.
And when you add in New York's scheduling advantage, there's even more reason to lay the points with the home underdogs.
My power ratings make New York closer to a double-digit favorite, giving me a significant edge with the current line at -7.5.
Storm vs. Liberty Pick: Liberty -7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
