Connecticut won't be too happy with the schedule makers as the Sun are returning home to play a back-to-back that includes two games in less than 24 hours. After defeating Washington 96-85 on Saturday in a game that tipped off at 3 p.m. ET, Connecticut hosts Seattle on Sunday at 1 p.m.
Interestingly, Connecticut's next two games are against Seattle. One could argue a Monday-Tuesday schedule would've been more sensible to avoid such a quick turnaround with the Sun having to rush home for the first leg.
Connecticut that prides itself on its defense, and if its players are feeling a bit weary, we could see a higher-scoring game than normal. That being said, let's get to my Storm vs. Sun prediction.
Storm vs. Sun Prediction
The Connecticut Sun return home on short rest to take on the Seattle Storm. Two games in two days might be enough to expose some cracks in the Sun team.
I'm expecting Seattle to take advantage of Connecticut's tired legs by playing more up tempo, which should lead to value on the game going over the total.
Storm vs. Sun Pick: Over 154 Points
Storm vs. Sun Odds
| Storm Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 154.5 -110/-110 | +104 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 154.5 -110/-110 | -128 |
Seattle Storm: Pace will be Key
Seattle enters this game as one of the better defensive teams in the league with a 95.7 efficiency rating that's only 1.1 points higher than the league-best Connecticut Sun. When these teams met earlier this season, Seattle won 72-61 at home.
One of the more surprising things about the Storm is that while they're a quality defensive unit, they also likes to get up and down the court. Seattle ranks second behind the Aces in pace with 81.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
Thus, for two teams that are relatively equal defensively, the Storm's average total this season is 5.5 points higher than the Sun's.
Connecticut managed to dictate the tempo in the first meeting, as there were only 77 possessions in the game. The game wasn't the best offensive display as both teams shot a combined 6-for-30 from beyond the arc.
To be successful, the Storm have to inject some pace into the game because they are such a poor perimeter shooting team. Seattle is the only team in the league shooting below 30% from distance.
As the fresher team, look for Seattle to do a much better job of playing this game at a faster pace.
Connecticut Sun: Mabrey Makes Sun a Title Threat
We finally got a glimpse of what this Connecticut team could look like in the postseason.
Marina Mabrey scored a game-high 21 points in Connecticut's road win over Washington.
Her 3-point prowess is something the Sun desperately need to have any legitimate chance of challenging for a WNBA title. And if we look at the three teams with the highest offensive rating (Liberty, Aces and Lynx), Connecticut averages at least three fewer 3-pointers per game.
Mabrey knocked down five of the Sun's 14 3-pointers against the Mystics and has been shooting 42.5% from long range since joining up with her new teammates.
Given her perimeter threat, Connecticut pushes the ball even more to create opportunities to get her open looks. With Mabrey on the team, Connecticut is up to sixth in pace (80.7 possessions per 40 minutes) after ranking last (76.97) before her arrival.
Storm vs. Sun Pick: Bet the Over/Under
If you're a Connecticut fan, you have to be a bit concerned with whether the Sun can muster any defensive intensity with two games in under 24 hours.
Moreover, one of Connecticut's best defensive stoppers, Alyssa Thomas, might not be available to play after departing the game against Washington in the second quarter following a collision with the Mystics' Karlie Samuelson.
Thomas's absence likely led to Mabrey playing 30 minutes off the bench, and we could see a similar scenario against Seattle.
Finally, there's some credence to Connecticut's defense being somewhat compromised when on short rest. According to our Action Labs database, the over is 7-1 in this spot with Connecticut at home.
While this total has ticked up after opening at 152.5, you can still play this game to go over 154 points at Caesars.
Pick: Over 154 Points
