Although the Phoenix Mercury haven't been at their best in recent weeks, they did manage to clinch a playoff spot earlier in the week by defeating the Atlanta Dream 74-66 at home. It was the Mercury's only victory in its last five games as it hovers around the .500 mark.
The Mercury are now 17-18, and you have to go back to June 18 to find the last time they won a game against a team with a winning record. You could argue that Phoenix is fortunate to have 17 wins, considering its Pythagorean Expectation suggests its record should be closer to 14-21.
Next up for the Mercury is a visit to Seattle to take on the Storm as a six-point underdog. While the odds for this matchup have already seen plenty of movement in both directions, I'll share how bettors can still find value at the current number. Let's get to my Mercury vs Storm predictions for Saturday night.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Prediction
The Mercury visits the Storm on Saturday night in search of its first victory against a winning team in more than two months. However, given Phoenix's mediocre play and playoff qualification, there's no reason to suddenly expect it to raise its level against one of the better teams in the league. With both teams already winning on their home court, Seattle's defense could be the key to winning the game and cashing our same game parlay.
Mercury vs. Storm Pick: Same Game Parlay – Seattle -2 / Under 169.5 (+120)
Mercury vs. Storm Odds
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+7 -112 | 163.5 -108 / -112 | +225 |
| Storm Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-7 -108 | 163.5 -108 / -112 | -290 |
Phoenix Mercury: Time to Panic?
There's almost a sense that Phoenix is just playing out the string to get to the playoffs. With five games remaining in the regular season, the team's strategy might be more about self-preservation to avoid unnecessary injuries.
After all, Phoenix has the oldest roster in the league, with an average age of 29.2 years. However, the warning signs have always been there for this Mercury team, which isn't very good defensively. For example, Phoenix's defensive efficiency of 104.6 points allowed per 100 possessions is the fourth-worst mark in the league.
Even teams like Washington, Chicago, and Atlanta, with no more than 12 wins on the year, have a better defensive rating. Unfortunately, a closer look at some hustle stats might even point to a lack of effort. Opponents are shooting a league-high in 3-point attempts (26.9 per game) against Phoenix, and it's allowing a league-worst in second-chance points (12.6 per game).
Those are numbers you'd associate with a team at the bottom of the standings, not one that's already clinched a playoff berth.
Seattle Storm: Defense & Tempo
Seattle is one of the more fascinating teams in the league, considering that it ranks in the top-third in defense and pace. In comparison, if you look at the other top four teams in defense, they're no higher than eighth in tempo.
To Seattle's credit, it's trying to generate offense as best as possible because it's an inferior perimeter shooting team, ranking 10th with 5.9 3-pointers per game. Thus, by playing a bit faster, the Storm can pick up additional scoring opportunities, whether off turnovers, on the fastbreak, or second-chance attempts.
It's worth noting that Seattle ranks in at least the top-half of the league in those three categories despite being the eighth-best team in offensive efficiency (101.2). If the Storm can stick to its strengths and not fall in love with the 3-point shot, it should be able to ride its defense to victory.
Mercury vs. Storm Same Game Parlay
Betting Pick & Prediction
This will be third meeting between the teams this season, as the series currently tied at one apiece. Both teams won on their home court, and I expect that trend to continue on Saturday night. Phoenix's recent form against teams above .500 is quite damning, making it hard for one to identify any signs of optimism.
When this line opened, Seattle dropped from a -5.5 point favorite to -4, and now we see it as high as -7 at FanDuel. The total has also been on the move from 166.5 down to 163.5.
My model pointed to an initial edge on Seattle at -4, with a lean to the under.
As a result, I recommend adjusting the odds by 4.5 points using a BetRivers same-game parlay with Seattle at -2 and playing the total under 169.5 points. This combination results in some favorable odds at +120.
Mercury vs. Storm Pick: Same Game Parlay – Seattle -2 / Under 169.5 (+120)
