Following a 72-64 defeat to Connecticut, the Liberty's Sabrina Ionescu warned the league, saying, “I can promise you we’re not gonna have a game like that again.” Four days later, New York suffered a 94-88 loss to Los Angeles, which has the fewest wins (seven) in the WNBA.
With eight games remaining in the campaign, one has to wonder if New York is starting to get restless in anticipation of the postseason. Next up for the Liberty is a visit to Seattle on Friday to wrap up a three-game road trip.
This will be the second meeting between the two teams after New York won 73-64 back in May. While this would seem like an optimal spot to back the Liberty as a short favorite off a loss, it's the total that piqued my interest, considering these are two of the best defensive teams in the league.
Liberty vs. Storm Prediction
The Seattle Storm will host the New York Liberty in a matchup featuring two of the league's best defenses. There's no fluke to their success because both teams are highly skilled at defending the perimeter.
If they continue to limit their opponent's three-point opportunities, there's some value in this game finishing under the total of 163.5 points.
Liberty vs. Storm Pick: Under 163.5 points
Liberty vs. Storm Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 163.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Storm Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 163.5 -110o / -110u | +114 |
New York Liberty: Seeking Gold
It's back to the drawing board for a Liberty team that, at 26-6, has a legitimate chance to bring home its first WNBA title. New York's issues against Los Angeles were more defensive than anything else, as it committed 20 turnovers, resulting in 29 points for the opposition.
The Sparks would go on to shoot 51.5% from the floor — nine percentage points higher than their season average (41.5% FG). New York also committed seven more fouls than its season average (15) and got outscored in transition 17-4.
Although the effort wasn't there, it's difficult to think the Liberty could produce such a stinker in back-to-back performances. In the long run, coaches like to use these losses to send a message to their players.
The obvious takeaway is that New York still has plenty of work ahead if it plans to end its title drought.
Seattle Storm: Stopping the Perimeter
After the Las Vegas Aces posted a 113.0 Offensive Rating, one could only wonder if there was anything opposing teams could do to narrow the gap. While building a super team to rival the Aces offensively was always going to be a massive challenge for the rest of the league, it appears there's been a greater focus on the defensive end of the floor.
Seattle is one of four teams (Minnesota, Connecticut and New York) with a Defensive Efficiency of 95 or better, while the Aces were the only team last season with a rating lower than 98.0.
There's also not much that separates New York and Seattle defensively because both teams are almost spitting images of one another. Opponents shoot just 42% from the floor against Seattle vs. 42.2% against New York.
Both teams also give up just 6.9 3-point field goals per game. Defending the perimeter has become somewhat of a cheat code in the modern era as more and more teams optimize their shot selection.
As a result, it's no surprise that the four best defensive teams also rank in the top four at guarding the perimeter.
Liberty vs. Storm: Defense Taking Precedence
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'd expect much more of a defensive response from New York coming off its shocking performance against the Sparks. One thing we can't do is underestimate how good this Liberty team has been defensively this season.
But this matchup features two teams that are almost on par with one another in their ability to thwart opposing offenses. In addition to a team's perimeter defense, I also pay close attention to whether they can defend without fouling.
New York allows only 15 free throw attempts per game, which is the best mark in the league. The first meeting fully displayed its defensive qualities by limiting Seattle to only 14 free-throw attempts.
Moreover, both teams combined to shoot just 9-of-47 (19%) from the perimeter in the game.
According to our Action Labs database, the total is 58-49-3 to the under this season in games involving at least one of those top four defensive teams mentioned above.
These teams deserve a ton of credit for making defense a focal point of their success, and I expect that trend to continue on Friday night.
