Minnesota has been one of the bigger surprises in the 2024 WNBA season. Let's not forget that it began the year tied for the second-highest title odds at +6000.
Those odds are long gone, as the best number you'll find on the Lynx is 5-to-1.
Minnesota has also been on a decent run, winning three straight games and nine of its last 10. It'll wrap up a three-game road trip against the Dream on Tuesday night.
This will be the fourth and final meeting between the two teams, with Atlanta still looking for its first victory in the season series.
As good as Minnesota's been, sweeping an opponent over four games is never easy.
However, if you can't quite bring yourself to fade Atlanta as a 5.5-point underdog, the player props market is an exciting alternative for bettors to pursue.
Lynx vs. Dream Prediction
Minnesota has yet to suffer a loss against Atlanta this season, as it has won each of the previous three meetings. But while backing the Lynx might feel like a slam dunk, beating the same team four times in a regular season is always a challenge. If you can't resist fading Atlanta, perhaps you'll consider taking the under with Rhyne Howard's player prop.
Lynx vs. Dream Pick: Rhyne Howard under 3.5 3-pointers (-120 at FanDuel)
Lynx vs. Dream Odds
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 158 -110o / -110u | -215 |
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 158 -110o / -110u | +172 |
Minnesota Lynx: A Complete 180
A season ago, the Lynx reached the playoffs with a 19-21 mark. While Minnesota certainly deserves some credit for that accomplishment, a closer look reveals it was quite fortunate to end the season just two games below .500.
After all, Minnesota's Pythagorean Expectation, based on points scored and allowed, suggests its record should've been closer to 12-28.
The Lynx had the third-worst Net Rating at -5.9, yet its .475 win percentage was good enough to finish in the league's top half. This season, we've seen a complete reversal as it has the second-best Net Rating (+8.3) to go along with a stellar 26-9 record.
The most significant change we've seen with the Lynx has been on the defensive end, as it improved its efficiency from 105.7 points allowed per 100 possessions down to 95.1. Against the Dream, Minnesota's defense has been even better, as evidenced by a 93.0 rating.
At 12-23, the Dream has an even worse offensive rating than the 7-28 Los Angeles Sparks.
If Atlanta is already struggling to score points, it's difficult to like its chances against a Lynx team that boasts one of the best defenses in the W.
Atlanta Dream: Hobbling Into Tonight
There's no question that injuries have played a role in Atlanta's struggles this season. The team recently ruled out Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (ankle) for the rest of the season, while Aerial Powers is still rehabbing a calf injury.
Both players averaged roughly 18 minutes per game while contributing 17.8 points. To fill their void, Atlanta has had to turn to its bench and insert younger players like Haley Jones and Naz Hillmon into the starting lineup.
However, those players are averaging roughly more minutes combined (39.8) despite contributing fewer points (9.3).
As a young player in the league, you must show some promise fairly quickly, given how competitive it can get for roster spots. With Jones and Hillmon still in the early stages of their professional careers, I'm not sure Atlanta expected a ton from both players heading into the season.
While there's certainly enough blame to go around, the reality is this Dream roster lacks some depth and is stretched far too thin because of the injuries.
Lynx vs. Dream: Minnesota Locking The Perimeter
Betting Pick & Prediction
You can't truly appreciate the Lynx's defensive quality without digging into the numbers. Minnesota gives up the fifth-highest opponent field goals per game (69.1), yet it's allowing a league-best 41.3% shooting from the floor.
It's particularly stingy on the perimeter, with opponents shooting 30.1% on 22.7 attempts. Of the teams ranked in the top third defensively, none faces more opponent 3-point attempts than the Lynx.
Thus, Minnesota is practically contesting every perimeter shot as much as possible.
One Atlanta player who could struggle against Minnesota's perimeter defense is Rhyne Howard. The 2022 first-overall pick has been on a tear lately, averaging 5.25 3-point field goals over her last four games.
As a result, we've seen her 3-point field goals prop increase to 3.5, 0.7 points higher than her season average.
However, when Howard faces a top-five defense in 3-pointers allowed, she finished under this prop projection in 10 of her last 11 games.
Moreover, she's stayed under 3.5 3-pointers in her last six games against Minnesota.
Considering that we've seen a solid move to the under on the game total from 163.5 down to 158, there's some correlation here with Howard finishing with under 3.5 3-pointers.
Lynx vs. Dream Pick: Rhyne Howard under 3.5 3-pointers (-120 at FanDuel)
Key Matchups to Watch
One of the most intriguing matchups to watch will be between Rhyne Howard and the Minnesota Lynx’s formidable defense. Howard has been on fire recently, averaging 33.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game over her last three outings. However, she will face a stern test against a Lynx defense that excels at limiting perimeter shooting, allowing a league-best 41.3% shooting from the floor. Another key battle will be between Napheesa Collier and the Dream’s defense. Collier, an All-Star this season, has been a consistent force, averaging 20.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. How these matchups play out could very well determine the game’s outcome.
