The Connecticut Sun visit Washington on Saturday afternoon while trying to complete a series sweep against the Mystics.
Although Connecticut has won all three games thus far during the regular season, the Mystics put forth their best effort in a 94-91 overtime loss when the two teams last met in late June.
After winning three straight games, Washington is currently amidst its best run during this campaign. At 9-22, the Mystics are now 2.5 games out of the eighth and final playoff spot.
While it may already be too late in the season for Washington to make a legitimate run, there's certainly reason for optimism with some key players returning from injuries.
Sun vs. Mystics Prediction
A Mystics' three-game winning streak puts the team back in contention for a playoff spot. While injuries have primarily derailed this campaign, Washington is starting to get healthier, and its recent form warrants some strong consideration as 8.5-point home underdogs against Connecticut on Saturday.
Sun vs. Mystics Pick: Mystics +8.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Sun vs. Mystics Odds
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | -385 |
| Mystics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | +290 |
Connecticut Sun: Connecticut Starting to Feel the Heat
Defeating the same team four times in the same season is never easy. Connecticut is well aware of this after coming up short in a similar scenario against the Fever its last time out.
Indiana snapped the Sun's three-game winning streak (84-80) in front of a packed house at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The Sun's previous loss was an 82-70 setback against Atlanta.
Thus, Connecticut has a bit of vulnerability against teams at the bottom of the standings.
The biggest surprise with Connecticut is that it hasn't entirely kicked into high gear since it acquired Marina Mabrey from Chicago before the All-Star break in exchange for Moriah Jefferson, Rachel Banham, a 2025 first-round pick and swap rights for a 2026 first-round pick.
Mabrey is one of the league's better 3-point shooters, and her ability to connect from beyond the arc is something Connecticut has lacked all season.
Before her arrival, the Sun ranked 10th in 3-point field goals with 5.5 per game. But since joining the team, we've only seen a marginal improvement, with Connecticut averaging six 3-pointers per game, which is the second-worst mark during that span (six games).
We've also seen the Sun's defense take a slight hit as its efficiency rating is down from 93.8 to 95.9.
One might've thought Mabrey would be a reasonably seamless addition because she could camp out on the perimeter and spam 3-point shots.
However, it's not entirely clear whether this Connecticut team is truly better with Mabrey now on the roster.
Washington Mystics: Getting Healthier
The Mystics have only two starters (Ariel Atkins and Stefanie Dolson) from the season opener who have played in 30 or more games thus far. Let's not forget that Washington narrowly lost by five points to New York, the team with the best record in the league.
Neither of the three other starters (Karlie Samuelson, Shakira Austin or Brittney Sykes) has played more than 20 games this season.
Sykes might be the best player on the team, but she's only been involved in nine games. The eight-year veteran was the team's second-leading scorer (15.9 PPG) last year behind Elena Delle Donne (16.7 PPG).
Thus, her absence probably played a more significant role than any other player on the Mystics.
The injuries certainly weren't lost on Dolson following Wednesday's victory over the Chicago Sky.
"I mean, I think we're just playing hard," Dolson told reporters in her postgame interview. "I mean, we got Sykes back, Austin back, Karlie's back and forth. So, I think having more pieces has just helped. Not only is it finding that rhythm together, but it gives us different looks—different people that can attack. Every night, someone else is stepping up."
Washington is 9-10 in its last 19 games, and had it been able to play close to .500 basketball for the entire season, there wouldn't be any questions about this team making the playoffs.
When it's all said and done, you still need your best players on the court to stand any chance of winning games in this league.
Sun vs. Mystics: Washington Bringing in the Dough
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's tough to be too critical of the Mystics, even after their 0-12 start. This recent run suggests their struggles were more about a lack of availability for their players.
To Washington's credit, there was never much of a drop in confidence because it still went out and competed on most nights.
According to our Action Labs database, Washington is the second-most profitable team against the spread at 19-11-1 (63.3%).
Connecticut faces a difficult challenge with not only trying to sweep the season series but also having to do so on the road. I expect the Mystics to be up for the challenge and keep the game close enough to have an opportunity in the fourth quarter to come away with an outright win.
