Aces vs. Sky Odds
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -115 | 168.5 -110 / -105 | -1600 |
| Sky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -105 | 168.5 -110 / -105 | +820 |
The Las Vegas Aces (21-2) take their show to ESPN on Tuesday night when they face the Chicago Sky (9-13).
The Aces have been everything we dreamed of and more this season. They have a chance to tie or break the all-time winning percentage record previously held by the 1998 Houston Comets (27-3). They're also tracking for the best net rating of any team in WNBA history. Even with Candace Parker, their big offseason acquisition, sidelined the last few games, Las Vegas hasn't slowed down.
The Sky, on the other hand, have had a turbulent season. They started off 5-3 and looked like a team that wasn't going to be rebuilding after all.
However, they've gone 4-10 since and lost a head coach along the way. The talent is still there, but they seem a bit lost at how best to use it at times.
The spread opened at Las Vegas -12.5 but took early money, so let's get right into the Aces vs. Sky preview so you don't miss any more potential value.
Las Vegas Aces
As noted above, the Aces have not slowed down with Parker out of the lineup, winning their last five games by an average of over 20 points. Their net rating for the season sits at 19.2, and they are 12-10 against the spread, despite getting absurd lines each game.
I have several plays in this article, but the first and most straightforward is the Aces spread at 14.5. As noted, the Aces have proven capable of covering monster spreads, even though they often take their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter.
I project the Aces to be around an 18-point favorite, and while those numbers can get a little fuzzy the bigger the spread gets (variance comes into play in blowout fourth quarters), I like the 14.5 as a lean.
One way of targeting the Aces if you don't want that full-game spread is the first half. The Aces have blitzed teams in the first half with a net rating of +23.4. They've been covering the first-half spread left and right (17-6 for the season), and the Sky are nothing special in the first half.
I will also be looking at a couple player props.
A few patterns have emerged with Parker out, one being that A'ja Wilson is picking up the slack on the boards. Her rebound over was already a play I liked due to weird low-rebound games that messed up her mean average (compared to her actual median). With Parker out, I would bet Wilson to 11.5 rebounds even money.
Chelsea Gray has also seen her assists take a bump. This would seem to be less correlated, but Parker is a playmaker from her spot, and Gray's assists per 100 possessions do take a modest bump with Parker off the court (22.7 to 25.7, per pbpstats.com). I'd play over 7.5 assists to -115.
Chicago Sky
I'll keep the Sky section brief: I honestly don't have as much to say about them.
From a matchup perspective, the good news is the Sky give up the fewest threes of any team in the league. The bad news is part of that is because teams can just absolutely feast inside the arc, with the Sky possessing the worst two-point defense in the W this season.
For my player prop forecast this week, I looked at Kahleah Copper, who is seeing an increase in scoring and usage under new head coach Emre Vatansever.
This is the game I said would be a lean at best, though, because of the Aces' strong defense. Likely drawing Jackie Young, Copper will be up against it on Tuesday night, so unless the books hang 17.5 again, I probably won't be on this prop.
Aces-Sky Picks
Bettors have plenty of ways to attack this game.
I like the Aces full game spread (-14.5) as a lean, but the first half (-8.5) as a full best bet.
Lean: Aces -14.5 |
For props, I like A'ja Wilson rebounds (over 10.5) and Chelsea Gray assists (over 7.5), while Kahleah Copper points is going to be super reliant on the number books post.
Pick: A'ja Wilson Over 10.5 Rebounds |
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