Wild vs. Flames Odds
| Wild Odds | -113 |
| Flames Odds | -105 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100/ -122 |
Here's everything you need to know about Wild vs. Flames on Tuesday, Dec. 5 — our expert NHL prediction and preview.
In the late window of Tuesday's NHL slate, the Calgary Flames host the Minnesota Wild in a Western Conference tilt. Low-scoring games have been a trend when these teams have met over the past couple of seasons, with six or fewer total goals scored in four of the past five meetings.
Will this trend continue? Or will the scoring pick up?
Let's dig into the NHL odds and make a Wild vs Flames prediction.
Minnesota Wild
Low-scoring games have been a common trend for Minnesota, regardless of whether Dean Evason or John Hynes is behind the bench. There have been five or fewer total goals scored in four of Minnesota's past five games and that trend is likely to continue on Tuesday.
First, the offense has been practically non-existent as the Wild rank in the bottom half of the league in goals scored per game, power play percentage and shooting percentage. At 5-on-5, Minnesota ranks 21st in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60).
However, this new-look blue line has been markedly better, which is partly a product of the tremendous defensive play from rookie Brock Faber. At 5-on-5, Minnesota ranks sixth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
Backing up this strong blue line is goaltender Filip Gustavsson, who will start between the pipes on Tuesday. Gustavsson has been a prime positive regression candidate for some time now, and it's finally starting to come to fruition.
Over his past two starts, he is 2-0 with a .961 SV% and 1.00 GAA.
Calgary Flames
Despite strong defensive play at even strength, Minnesota still ranks poorly in goals allowed per game. That's the case for two reasons.
First, Gustavsson hasn't been playing as well as we have come to expect. Second, the Wild's penalty kill has been the worst in the league.
However, that second variable is mostly nullified against a Calgary team that ranks 28th in power play percentage. In fact, the Flames also struggle to score at even strength as they rank 18th in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.
Like Minnesota, Calgary's metrics improve on the defensive side of the ice as it ranks in the top half of the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.
Wild vs. Flames
Betting Pick & Prediction
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The biggest question mark for the Flames is the goaltending situation as Jacob Markstrom abruptly left practice on Monday after taking a puck off his right hand. The extent of the injury is unknown, but we can expect Daniel Vladar to take the crease if Markstrom is unable to go.
While that is the most concerning aspect of taking the under in this game, it's worth noting that Vladar is coming off his best performance of the year in Calgary's 2-1 win over the Vegas Golden Knights. In that game, Vladar stopped 27-of-28 pucks.
I don't necessarily trust him to put together another performance of that magnitude, but he should still be in a good spot in a game that features two poor offenses and two stronger blue lines.
Pick: Under 6 (+105 at DraftKings | Play up to -110)
