Jets vs Flames Odds
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 6.5 +104o / -128u | +116 |
| Flames Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 6.5 +104o / -128u | -140 |
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Day two of NHL opening week includes the Winnipeg Jets heading to Calgary to face the Flames. The Flames had the upper hand over the Jets last season as they won two out of the three matchups.
The Jets had an exciting end to the preseason, where they announced the long-term extensions for Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck. There’s a good amount of turnover for the Jets, who lose Pierre-Luc Dubois and former long-time Jet Blake Wheeler. After last season’s debacle in the playoffs, the Jets are expecting to turn the corner in this franchise’s new era.
Calgary certainly has had a rough two years. It lost two of its key weapons two offseasons ago and tried to replace them with Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri, who both underwhelmed. The Flames also lost Tyler Toffoli, who was the team's leading scorer. They will need multiple players to step up in order for this season to be a success.
Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my betting prediction and pick for the Winnipeg Jets vs. the Calgary Flames.
Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg enters this season ready to win. It ended last season with an exorbitant amount of uncertainty, but general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff maneuvered some kind of wizardry in the summer. He pulled Gabe Vilardi, Alex Iafallo and Rasmus Kupari for Dubois.
After adding those pieces to the already-strong foundation for the Jets, Winnipeg is a sneaky-good option for winning the Central Division.
The Jets had a really solid team and looked great at the start of the season. However, they folded by the time January hit. Regardless, they were around the league average in Expected Goals with a 52.19 xGF%. They held on about the same on the defensive end, with a 2.57 xGA/60.
I really like Winnipeg on special teams, but it really underperformed when needed. With scorers like Kyle Connor and Scheifele who can pop off 40 goals a season, it’s always a threat for them to score. The Jets power play stood at 19%, and led by Josh Morrissey, the penalty kill stood at a stout 82%.
With Hellebuyck’s future set in stone, any trade discussions get washed away. He’ll most likely man the crease for his usual 55-60 games. The American netminder remains a top-five goalie in the NHL, as last year he posted a .920 save percentage (SV%) and an elite 30.8 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).
Calgary Flames
The Flames are seemingly entering a gray area in their franchise’s history. It’s truly hard to tell where they’ll end up, and it starts with first-time head coach Ryan Huska. He spent his whole career as an assistant, mainly in the American Hockey League.
Believe it or not, the Flames had the fourth-most efficient offense last season with a 54.53 xGF%. It seemed as if goaltending and finishing were the biggest hurdles for this team in achieving success since the defensive metrics were pretty strong (2.48 xGA/60).
I mentioned Huberdeau being a disappointment last season, and he posted a drastically different season with 55 points compared to his 115 two seasons ago in Florida. He will need to be his old self, especially after re-signing for eight years at 10.5 million dollars per year.
With the man advantage, Calgary was pretty average. It averaged just under 20% on the power play, which all but confirms that the Flames’ top guys were not themselves last season. The penalty kill did well though, as do most Darryl Sutter teams with a fifth-best 82%.
Will Jacob Markstrom return to his old self? After a Vezina-caliber season two years ago, Markstrom had himself a rather below-average showing in the 22-23 season. In 59 games, the towering Swede posted an .892 SV% and a -3.1 GSAx. His performance will play a key role in how this team performs for the year.
Jets vs Flames
Betting Pick & Prediction
Heading into the season, there’s a lot of promise out in Manitoba. The Jets are much better than what we saw last year, especially after the Dubois trade. There’s too much to like, and the models favor them significantly.
For Calgary, on the other hand, it’s difficult to tell. Part of me wants to think that guys like Huberdeau, Kadri and Elias Lindholm will get back to their old ways, but who’s to say? We also don’t know what a Huska-coached team looks like.
What about Markstrom? There’s just way too many questions than answers in CowTown.
From last season's metrics, it would seem that this game would be fairly even. However, the Jets can only go up from here. They ended on a sour note but managed to turn their uncertainty into a positive with Hellebuyck and Scheifele’s extensions. They’re also much younger with way more depth than the Flames.
FanDuel has the Flames as the favorites here, but I’m very bearish on them. The Jets at +114 will only be there for so long, so I’d get in while I can on the Winnipeg moneyline.
