Titans vs Steelers Prediction, Pick, Spread | Odds for Thursday Night Football
Getty Images. Pictured: Will Levis (left) and Kenny Pickett.
Titans vs Steelers Odds & Prediction
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 37 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 37 -110o / -110u | -165 |
All sportsbooks have Titans vs. Steelers odds for Thursday Night Football at Pittsburgh -3. My Titans vs. Steelers prediction and pick is on the over/under, which has settled at 37.
Can't you just feel your body aching from all the hits in this game already? This is a classic, ugly Thursday Night Football game featuring a rookie quarterback making his first start on the road and a second-year quarterback who’s dealing with a rib injury.
Ryan Tannehill is again out due to injury, so it will firmly be the Will Levis show — against Kenny Pickett!
Let's break down my Titans vs. Steelers prediction below.
If you're looking for flashy offense and high-flying attacks, you're looking at the wrong game.
Both offenses rank 20th or below in DVOA. Neither team has passed the ball consistently, and neither looks capable of putting up a big number.
Will Levis had a heck of a debut with four touchdowns against the Falcons, but there's a big difference between doing it at home with a bye week to prepare vs. hitting the road on a short week of prep against a nasty Steelers defense. Levis's numbers looked great and he certainly showed off his huge arm talent, but the Titans' passing game was inconsistent outside of a few big plays and there are some troubling underlying signs.
Levis got happy feet under pressure at times against Atlanta but wasn't pressured often. T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and the Steelers will get after him, and the Titans have the worst offensive line in the league, per Pro Football Focus rankings. Tennessee should find some success running the ball and Pittsburgh will miss S Minkah Fitzpatrick, but this will be a big step up for Levis. Pittsburgh's defense ranks seventh by DVOA and eighth against the pass.
Tennessee's defense leaped from 18th to 11th in DVOA itself after a strong Sunday performance, and its defensive line should cause plenty of problems against Pittsburgh's bad line too. Kenny Pickett has vowed to play through a rib injury but hasn't exactly been good, and Matt Canada's offense has been stuck in the mud all season, lacking creativity.
Make a Titans vs. Steelers Pick at FanDuel
Both defenses have the advantage. Each offense has been improving some of late, but this looks like a defensive battle all the way.
If you're looking for a side, I have to lean Pittsburgh under three.
The Titans have been much worse on the road, and the Steelers are great at home. Just check the DVOA splits:
- Tennessee offense: 31st road, 12th home
- Tennessee defense: 24th road, 8th home
- Pittsburgh defense: sixth home, 19th road
Pittsburgh's home-field advantage is significant here, especially with a loud home crowd and an outstanding defense against a rookie QB making his second start and first ever on the road.
But the Steelers could struggle to score themselves, especially if Pickett is less than 100%, so the under feels like the best play.
Titans vs. Steelers
Betting Picks & Predictions
Hopefully, by now, you know to expect low-scoring games on Thursday nights.
Primetime unders continue to be a profitable play, hitting at a 61% rate over the last four seasons and 72% so far this season.
Thursday night unders with low totals have been especially profitable. When a Thursday total is at 40 or below, the under is 17-4 (81%) since 2010. On a short week without much time to prep, these offenses just don't have a chance.
The line has dropped slightly since Sunday, but 37 was widely available on Thursday afternoon. In this case, the move down costs us a point but triggers another trend. Over the last four calendar years, unders at 37 or below are 21-6-1, hitting at a 78% clip. Basically, when the line starts to drop this low, books just can't move the total down far enough.
Also, Pittsburgh is 6-1 to the under so far this season, and Tennessee is 5-2 to the under.
Be sure to grab 37 if you can since it's a key number for totals. Otherwise, just grab the best number available. (Use our live NFL odds page to make sure you get it.)
On Wednesdays, we wear pink. On Thursdays, we go low.
Pick: Under 37
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