We haven't seen many double-digit favorites in the NFL this year, but this week we have two and next week a few more on the horizon. Thanksgiving is right around the corner, it's time for late November football.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 11 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Wednesday, Nov. 20, at 10 a.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Double Trouble
Big Favorites Thrive
Double-digit favorites are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS this season, marking the first time they’ve been undefeated outright through 11 weeks since 2004 (8-0) and only the second time in the past 40 years.
It’s also the first time since 1950 that double-digit favorites have been undefeated ATS through 11 weeks. This season is tied for the fewest double-digit favorite games through 11 weeks since 1950.
A Season To Forget
Titans Betting History
The Titans are 1-9 against the spread this season, worst record in the NFL…
That is the worst mark for any team thru 11 weeks since the 2007 Ravens & just the second 1-9 ATS start thru 11 weeks in the last 30 years
Regular Dog
Purdy's Streak Broken
Brock Purdy has made 37 career starts entering this week. He’s only been listed as an underdog once, against the 49ers in the 2022-23 playoffs where he got hurt and Philly won 31-7. Purdy has gone his first 31 career regular season starts as a favorite, with that streak now breaking this week vs. Packers.
A Different Era
Passing The Game Bye
Teams to throw for 300 or more passing yards this season are just 16-20-2 ATS (44.4%). Over a full season, that would be the lowest ATS mark since 2003 and the 3rd-lowest in the Wild Card era.
This season, when a team throws for 200 yards or less, they are 73-68-2 ATS. Only five seasons have ended a year above .500 ATS for sub-par passing teams.
Jerry's Nightmare
Cowboys Can't Lose Again
The Cowboys have lost five consecutive games both SU and ATS entering this week. That hasn’t happened in Dallas since 2010. The last time they lost 6 straight both SU and ATS? Back in 1988-89, when they lost 7 games SU and ATS.
The Cowboys rarely close as big underdogs against Washington. In the last 20 years, they’ve closed +4 or higher just once – back in 2007 at +9. 2000 is the last time Dallas closed as a double-digit underdog vs. Washington (+10.5 that day).
All About Halves
Different But The Same
No team has seen a difference in their 1H and 2H play this year. The Texans are 10-1 against the first half spread, best mark of any team in the NFL. That 10-1 1H ATS mark is the best start for any team in the last 20 years.
Will Levis is 0-5 SU/ATS in divisional games, failing to cover the spread by 8.8 PPG. Since 2003, only two QBs are 0-5 ATS or worse vs. divisional opponents – Will Levis and Zach Mettenberger, both for the Titans.
Bo Knows
Broncos On Their Way
Denver finally did it. With a win total of 5.5, they are now 6-5 SU this season and have eclipsed their preseason win total for the first time since 2015. The Broncos had gone under their win total in four straight years and were 0-7-1 to their win total over since 2016. They had last gone over their win total back in 2015 when they won the Super Bowl with Peyton Manning.
Jim and John
Harbaugh's On Monday Night
The Harbaugh brothers on Monday Night Football are a combined 20-8 SU and 19-9 ATS as head coaches, both top-10 in ATS profitability. Where they've done the most damage is on the road — the spot for John Harbaugh and the Ravens, where they are 16-5 ATS on MNF.
Chargers aren’t historically great home teams. Entering this matchup, they’ve covered three in a row at home for the first time since the 2014 season. They haven’t covered the spread in 4 straight home games since the 2007 season.
Every NFL Game For Week 11
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Tomlin Struggles
➤On the road on any game played on a Thursday, the Steelers are 5-17 SU and 9-13 ATS in franchise history. Since 1980, they are 3-14 SU and 5-12 ATS.
The Steelers have never won a road, divisional Thursday Night Football game. They're 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS all-time and 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS under Mike Tomlin. Tomlin is 2-8 SU on the road on TNF.
Steelers Stumble After Facing Ravens
➤Steelers have had to play a night game directly after facing the Ravens three times since 2020 and they are 0-3 SU/ATS. Between 2007-19, Steelers went 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in this spot to begin Tomlin’s career with Pittsburgh.
Russell Wilson: Night Game Peaks and Valleys
➤Russell Wilson started his career 24-7-3 ATS in night games with the Seahawks, between 2012-18. Since then, he is 9-16 ATS in night games. The 24-7-3 ATS mark was best in the NFL. The 8-16 ATS mark is second-worst of 90 QBs, ahead of only Tom Brady.
In 2024 with the Steelers, Russ is actually 2-0 SU/ATS in night games, beating both the Jets and Giants at home in Pittsburgh.
Thursday Night Road Troubles for Pittsburgh
➤Thursday night road games have not been friendly to Tomlin and the Steelers. In his career, they are 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS. The Steelers have won just one game outright in this spot since 2008.
Browns Shine Bright at Night
➤At home in night games, the Browns have been dangerous under Kevin Stefanski. They are 5-2 SU and ATS, winning and covering three in a row entering this matchup.
AFC North Underdogs: A Bettor's Dream
➤Underdogs in AFC North divisional games have been a cash cow. They're 48-31 ATS (61%) since 2018, best of any division, they're .500 ATS or better in 7 straight seasons and they are 26-16 ATS since 2021.
Jameis Winston and Tight Spreads Don't Mix
➤One of Jameis Winston’s Achilles heels has been playing tight spread games. In his career, he is 19-31-3 ATS when the spread is four or fewer points either way. Of 140 QBs since 2003, he's the least profitable ATS.
Since the start of the 2022 season, Jameis has covered just one of his last six starts.
Jameis vs. the Cold: A Tough Test
➤Jameis Winston has started 73 games in his NFL career, he has only started 5 games below 50°, with no games at 40° or colder. TNF is expected to be around 40° as of now.
In Jameis’ four coldest NFL starts, his teams have scored 12, 20, 19, 10.
Browns' Defense: From Best to Bust
➤The Browns are allowing a yards per attempt average of 7.8 on defense, which is the 4th-worst mark in the NFL. Last year, that was 5.89, the second-best mark in the league. Even in 2022, it was 6.83 and in 2021, it was 6.44.
Steelers Seek Revenge Against Browns
➤The Steelers lost to the Browns both SU and ATS in their last meeting back in November of last year. Pittsburgh hasn’t lost consecutive games SU & ATS vs. Cleveland since 1999 and 2000.
Short Rest Spells Trouble for Steelers
➤Steelers are off a win as underdogs last week. Since 2003, teams coming off a SU win as dogs, who are on short rest the next week are just 98-126-10 ATS (44%).
Low Totals and the Under Trend
➤NFL totals of 37 or less are 33-15-1 (69%) to the under since 2020. Those low totals are also 28-19-2 to the first half under in that span, but just 2-6-1 in 2024.
Lions Dominate, but History Warns of ATS Letdown
➤Last week, the Lions were the first double-digit favorite since 2012 to win by 45+ pts.
Since 2015, teams after winning by 35+ pts are 23-34-1 ATS, but they are 3-1 ATS this season. When they are favored by above 4 pts, they are 23-37 ATS since 2003.
Goff's Bounce-Back ATS Success on the Road
➤The Lions ended up coming back and winning their last road game against the Texans two weeks ago – but they failed to cover the spread in that game.
Since joining Detroit, Jared Goff is 6-2 ATS in Detroit’s next road or neutral game after failing to cover the spread in their previous road/netural matchup.
As a favorite of 4 pts or more road/neutral, Goff is 10-5 ATS in career with both the Rams and Lions.
Goff Struggles on the Road vs. Losing Teams
➤With the Lions, Goff has started eight road games where his opponent is under .500 SU on the season. Detroit is just 2-6 SU in those games, losing by 10.3 PPG. When he was the QB of the Rams, he went 11-3 SU in this spot.
Road Favorites After Big Wins: A Tricky Spot
➤Teams who are road favorites the game after being a double-digit favorite in any location – basically really good teams, have had ATS struggles over the last decade. They are 58-34 SU and 40-51-1 ATS, with the under 54-37-1 in those games.
Colts Shine as Big Home Underdogs
➤Historically, the Colts have been a tough team to cover big numbers against in Indy. They are 13-2 ATS as home dogs of 6+ in the last 30 years.
Colts Thrive in Close Games Under Steichen
➤The Colts have played 19 one-score games under Shane Steichen, and they're 11-8 SU and 14-5 ATS.
Richardson: A Rising Star ATS and in Teasers
➤Anthony Richardson has made eleven starts in the NFL and he is 8-3 ATS, covering the spread in five straight games.
As an underdog in his career, Richardson is 6-2 ATS, including 8-0 in a 7-pt teaser.
Most Profitable QBs ATS This Season
1. Goff: 8-2 ATS
2. Herbert: 7-2-1 ATS
3. Richardson: 6-1 ATS
High-Scoring Teams Falter ATS Late in Season
➤In November or later since 2003, we’ve seen 40 games where a team is averaging 33+ PPG with a 90%+ win pct, those teams are 12-25-3 ATS in their next game, including 4-16-1 ATS when they are coming off a double-digit win.
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Mahomes as Big Road Favorite: Wins, But No Covers
➤Chiefs are massive favorites in Carolina this week. Here are Patrick Mahomes’ biggest spreads as a favorite in any game away from home. As a double-digit favorite away from home, Mahomes ia 4-0 SU but just 0-3-1 ATS in those games.
-14.5 at HOU, 2022. Won 30-24
-14 at OAK, 2018. Won 40-33
-11.5 at DEN, 2021. Won 28-24
-10 at NE, 2023. Won 27-17
Chiefs Bounce Back Strong After Facing Bills
➤Since 2018, the Chiefs are 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS the week after facing the Bills, including 2-0 SU/ATS after facing the Bills in Buffalo.
KC's Post-Sackless Games: Strong SU, Weak ATS
➤The Chiefs didn’t sack Josh Allen once last week. KC is 7-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games dating back to 2019 when their defense doesn’t get a sack in their previous game.
KC also allowed 30 pts last week for the first time since their Super Bowl vs. Eagles. Since 2020, Chiefs are 24-8 SU the week after allowing 24+ pts, but just 12-20 ATS in those games, including 20-12 to the under.
Bryce Young Struggles to Cover Big Spreads
➤Bryce Young has made 21 career NFL starts. He is 7-13-1 ATS, failing to cover by 6 PPG.
In those starts, he has closed above a TD under (+7.5) four times and Carolina is 0-4 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 7 PPG.
Mahomes' First-Quarter Turnover Troubles
➤Mahomes has 5 first quarter interceptions this season, most of any QB in the NFL. In all of last season, no QB had more than 4 1st quarter interceptions and Mahomes had just two.
Mahomes ATS After Losses: Mixed Results
➤In his career, Mahomes is 13-9-1 ATS after a SU loss. When he’s favored by 7.5 or more after a loss, he’s just 2-5-1 ATS.
Chiefs have come off a loss by more than one-score four times with Mahomes, their defense has stepped up each time allowing 17, 13, 17, 14 after the “big loss.”
Chiefs and Panthers: Slow Starts Continue
➤Both Carolina and Kansas City have had their fair share of rough starts to games.
The Chiefs are 2-8 against the 1Q spread this year, tied for the worst mark in the NFL.
The Panthers are 9-18 against the 1H spread since start of last year, 3rd-worst mark in the NFL.
Carolina has covered two in a row 1H ATS entering this week, breaking a 1-15 1H ATS stretch prior to that. Carolina last covered three straight 1H ATS in December of 2022.
Can Carolina Score?
➤Patrick Mahomes has started 44 games as a road favorite. When home team scores less than 20, he’s 11-0-2 ATS as a road fav. When they score 20 or more, he is 9-22 ATS.
Vikings Dominate Chicago Road Matchups
➤The Vikings have won and covered four straight road games in Chicago since the start of the 2020 season – their best road ATS streak in Chicago since 1965. Prior to this 4-game stretch, Minnesota was 3-16 SU and 4-14-1 ATS in Chicago in their 19 previous trips.
Bears Improve in NFC North, But Long-Term Fade
➤Chicago at least got the cover last week vs. Packers. The Bears are actually 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. NFC North.
Historically, the Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons, going 9-21-1 ATS vs. the Lions, Packers and Vikings since 2019, losing a $100 bettor $1,242.
Bears’ Sunday Road Woes Continue
➤Since the start of last season, the Bears are 14-30 SU. They're 4-4 SU at night and 10-26 SU in all other spots.
The Bears' recent historic road woes have now been noticed by bettors. They’ve lost 19 consecutive road games SU on a Sunday. They are 0-4 SU on the road this year and 3-18 SU last three years.
This year, the Bears are 3-2 SU at home and 8-5 since the start of last season.
Caleb Williams Crumbles Under Pressure
➤Caleb Williams has been sacked 41 times through 11 weeks — most for any QB this season.
Through Week 11, it's the most any Bears QB since sacks tracked. Since 2000, only 2020 Carson Wentz, 2006 Andrew Walter and 2005 David Carr had 41+ sacks in 11 games with a lower Y/A than Caleb’s 6.2.
This week, Bears play a vaunted Minnesota defense (5.5% sack pct). When Caleb faces a defense with a sack pct of 2% or higher – the opponents percentage of plays that end as a sack while on defense – He is 1-6 SU, scoring less than 20 pts in 6 of 7 games.
When it is below 2%, he is 2-0 SU, scoring 60 combined pts in two games.
Vikings Defense Blitzes to Dominance
➤The Vikings defense continues to be stingy under Brian Flores this year, ranking first in EPA/play, 1st in success rate, 4th EPA/dropback and first EPA/rush.
In one fewer game played, the Vikings still have 6 more QB pressures than any other team, with the second-highest pressure percentage in the NFL and the highest blitz percentage.
Vikings defense has been stout last three games, allowing 13 points, 13 points and seven points. Teams to allow 14 pts or less in three straight games with a win pct of 75% or higher in November or later during the regular season are 16-27 ATS since 2003.
Bears Struggle After Facing Packers
➤Last 15 years, the Bears have led the Packers entering the 4th quarter eight times. They are now 2-6 SU in those games, including 0-4 SU at home.
Getting over Green Bay hasn’t been easy. Chicago is 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after facing the Packers. Since 2013, they are 6-14 SU and 5-11-4 ATS the week after pacing the Packers, failing to cover the spread by 4.4 PPG.
Eberflus Doesn't Punch Up
➤Matt Eberflus has faced 16 teams who are above .500 SU with the Bears and Chicago is 2-14 SU. Both wins came 13 days apart, both vs. divisional opponents in the Lions and Vikings last year. He is 1-14 SU vs. teams with a 60%+ win pct – that is the fewest such wins in a 15+ game sample for any head coach over the last 20 years.
Protect Caleb
➤At this point, a bet on Chicago is a bet on their OL for that given week. When Caleb gets sacked 4+ times, they are 0-4 SU, scoring 41 pts in four games. 3 sacks or less, they are 4-2 SU – more importantly, 26.2 PPG and 20+ in 5 of 6 games.
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Cowboys on Brink of Historic Losing Streak
➤The Cowboys have lost five consecutive games both SU and ATS entering this week. That hasn’t happened in Dallas since 2010. The last time they lost 6 straight both SU and ATS? Back in 1988-89, when they lost 7 games SU and ATS.
Big Underdogs Against Washington: A Rare Sight
➤The Cowboys rarely close as big underdogs against Washington. In the last 20 years, they’ve closed +4 or higher just once – back in 2007 at +9. 2000 is the last time Dallas closed as a double-digit underdog vs. Washington (+10.5 that day).
Last 20 years, Dallas is 17-21 ATS vs. Washington. Dak is 10-3 ATS, all other QBs are 7-18 ATS.
Commanders and Cowboys: Blowouts the Norm
➤The Commanders and Cowboys rarely play close games. Since the beginning of of the 2019 season, they’ve played each other ten times, with nine of those ten meetings having a final margin of 10 pts or more and 8 of 10 a margin of 15+ pts. Last five meetings have been decided by 28, 35, 20, 15 and 42 pts.
Washington's Fourth-Quarter Fumbles
➤Executing in the fourth quarter has been a minor issue for Washington this year.
1Q ATS: 8-3
2Q ATS: 7-4
3Q ATS: 8-3
4Q ATS: 2-9
Washington’s Extended Rest Struggles Continue
➤This will be Jayden Daniels’ 2nd career NFL start on extended rest/prep. He played the Bengals on MNF earlier this year, a 38-33 win in Cincinnati.
Washington has one more game after this on extended rest this year, Week 15 at the Saints. Washington hasn’t finished a season undefeated SU/ATS on extended rest since 2012. Since then, Washington is 11-27-1 ATS when playing on extended prep, worst mark of any team in that span.
As a head coach, Dan Quinn 3-5 ATS as a favorite of 4 pts or more on extended rest, including 0-3 ATS as a favorite of 7 pts or more.
McCarthy Without Star QBs: A Losing Formula
➤Mike McCarthy is 147-112-7 ATS with Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre as his QB. He's 17-20 ATS with all other QBs.
Without Rodgers, Fave and Dak, McCarthy is also just 3-5 ATS when coaching on short rest, failing to cover the spread by 5.1 PPG.
Cooper Rush: Record-Setting Lows
➤Over the last two weeks, Cooper Rush has made some history.
Rush had 45 yards passing on 23 pass attempts against the Eagles, becoming the first QB since Anthony Wright in 2001 with 45 or fewer yards on at least 23 pass attempts.
Last week, Rush had 55 pass attempts and Dallas only scored 10 pts.The first time that’s happened at home in 2.5 years.
If you’re looking for the Mike McCarthy upset special. He’s 2-18 SU as a dog of 7 pts or more and 0-12 SU above a full TD.
Dallas’ Third-Quarter Troubles Persist
➤Cowboys have struggled out of the locker room this season. They are 1-9 ATS in the third quarter, the worst mark in the NFL. Since the start of last season, Dallas is just 6-21 ATS in the third quarter.
Bye Week Battles: Unders Dominate in This Spot
➤Unique spot here with both teams coming off a bye. When that happens over the last decade, the under is 21-11 (66%) in those games, going under the total by 3.4 PPG.
The Bucs will be the 10th team since 2003 to be in a “bye game” where the road team is above -4. Those teams are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. Overall, road favorites off a bye are 76-53-4 ATS (59%) since 2004.
Baker’s Bye Week Blues vs. Daboll’s Perfect Record
➤Baker Mayfield has started five career games off a bye during the season, he is 3-2 SU, but just 1-4 ATS in those games, including 0-2 ATS as a favorite of 3 pts or more.
On the other hand, Brian Daboll has coached two games for the Giants off a bye, and they are 2-0 SU/ATS, both games coming at home, covering the spread by 5.3 PPG.
Extended Rest, Limited Success for Baker and Bowles
➤Baker has had his struggles on extended rest in his career going just 9-13 SU and 9-13 ATS, including 3-8 SU on the road.
From the coaching side, Todd Bowles is 9-17 SU on extended rest in his career, including 2-8 SU on the road.
Baker’s Buccaneers Bring ATS Turnaround
➤A different Baker. Between 2018-22, he was 24-32-1 ATS, 5th-worst mark in the NFL. With the Bucs, he is 15-9 ATS, the 3rd-best mark in the NFL.
Big Road Favorite Baker: Mixed Results
➤This is a big road line for Baker.
Biggest Road Favorite – Baker Mayfield Career (above -4.5)
-6.5 – 2020 CLE at NYJ, NYJ won 23-16
-6 – 2020 CLE at NYG, CLE won 20-6
Giants’ ATS Consistency Without Daniel Jones
➤Since Daniel Jones’ first career start in 2019, he is 31-27 ATS. When any other QB starts for the Giants during that span, they are 11-10-1 ATS, all 22 games as an underdog, covering the spread by 2 PPG when that game is played at home.
DeVito’s Success Against Leaky Defenses
➤Tommy DeVito has started six career games for the Giants. He is 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS, including 2-0 SU/ATS at home.
The good thing for DeVito, he is facing a Bucs defense allowing 26.6 PPG, allowing 23 pts or more in six straight games.
In DeVito’s six starts, the four opponents with the worst PPG defenses he’s faced, he is 4-0 ATS. The two best defenses, he’s 0-2 ATS.
DeVito’s Struggles in Efficiency Metrics
➤Since the start of the 2023 season, we’ve had 64 QBs have at least 100 plays. DeVito is 56th in EPA/play, sandwiched between Zach Wilson and Bryce Young. He is 63rd in success rate, sandwiched between Bailey Zappe and Drew Lock and he’s 59th in aDOT, too.
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Dolphins Dominate Patriots ATS in Recent Years
➤The Dolphins have dominated this series ATS recently. Miami has covered the spread in 8 straight games vs. Patriots dating back to December of 2020.
At home, Miami is on a 4-game SU/ATS streak vs. New England – their longest SU/ATS win streak vs. NE since 1998-02 (5 straight).
Post-Brady Patriots vs. Division: A Losing Trend
➤The Patriots have fared well vs. the Jets, but not to much the rest of the division since Tom Brady left. They are 6-3 ATS vs. Jets and 4-11 ATS vs. Dolphins and Bills.
Patriots' Poor Performance as Underdogs
➤Since 2021, the Patriots are 9-29 SU as an underdog, the 3rd-least profitable mark in the NFL, ahead of just the Bears and Falcons. Drake Maye has started his career 2-4 SU as a dog.
Dolphins Feast on Sub-.500 Teams, Struggle Against Better
➤Since 2021, Dolphins are 5-17 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 21-10 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.
Tua is 21-8 SU, 18-11 ATAS vs. teams below .500 in his career, including 13-7 ATS at home.
Tua’s Home ATS Struggles in 2024
➤This year, the Dolphins are 1-4 ATS at home. Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015.
Tua prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 19-11 ATS at home and 13-14-1 ATS away from home in his career.
Tua Thrives in Eastern Time Zone Matchups
➤Tua by time zone: 28-16-1 ATS in EST | 4-7 ATS all other time zones
Tua as Big Favorite: Dominant Except in Prime Time
➤Overall in Tua Tagovailoa’s pro career, he has closed as a favorite of six or more points 15 times. Miami is 14-1 SU and 11-4 ATS in those games, with its only SU loss coming to the Titans on Monday Night Football last season. That makes the Dolphins 13-0 SU and 11-2 ATS outside of that night/primetime window in this spot.
Dolphins Scoring Trends Meet Patriots’ Defensive History
➤The Dolphins are coming off scoring 35 points against the Raiders last week.
Of the six teams Drake Maye has faced in the NFL, the opposing offense has scored a max of 23 pts the game before facing NE. That was the Texans, who beat the Patriots 41-21. In Maye’s three covers, the opposing offense came in scoring 15, 14 and 9 pts in their previous game.
Texans Own the Titans in Recent Meetings
➤Texans have dominated the Titans recently. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings, including DeMeco Ryans being 2-0 SU/ATS against them.
In their 44-game matchup history, Houston has closed -8 or higher once and that was in 2012 as a 13-pt favorite vs. Titans.
Texans 1H ATS Dominance, 2H Struggles Continue
➤No team has seen a difference in their 1H and 2H play this year. The Texans are 10-1 against the first half spread, best mark of any team in the NFL.
That 10-1 1H ATS mark is the best start for any team in the last 20 years. The closest were the Eagles in 2017, starting 9-1-1 1H ATS and the 2016 Chargers at 8-1-2 1H ATS.
Houston is also 2-9 against the second half spread, worst mark of any team in the NFL.
Titans’ Second-Half ATS Woes Persist
➤Question is, can Tennessee put up b2b good second halves. They beat the Vikings 10-7 in the 2H last week, covering the +3.5 2H ATS. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Titans have only covered the 2H spread two games in a row once and that was back in Nov. of 2022.
Tennessee is 7-26-1 against the second half spread over the last two calendar years.
Titans’ ATS Struggles Over the Last Two Years
➤Over the last full two calendar years – Nov. 24, 2022 to 2024, the Titans are 9-23-2 ATS (28%), the worst mark of any team in the NFL – the only team with fewer than 10 covers.
When they’ve faced a divisional opponent in that span, they are 2-8 ATS.
Stroud Struggles as a Favorite, Shines as an Underdog
➤Stroud has made 28 career starts in the NFL, he’s only closed -7 or higher once – last week vs. Cowboys. He’s 8-4 ATS as an underdog and 6-10 ATS as a favorite in his pro career.
Levis Joins Exclusive Club of ATS Failures in Divisions
➤Will Levis is 0-5 SU/ATS in divisional games, failing to cover the spread by 8.8 PPG. Last two seasons, only Easton Stick, Zach Wilson, Josh Dobbs and Levis are 0-3 ATS or worse vs. divisional opponents.
Since 2003, only two QBs are 0-5 ATS or worse vs. divisional opponents – Will Levis and Zach Mettenberger, both for the Titans.
Levis’ Night Game Wins Mask Daytime Struggles
➤As a starter, Will Levis is 4-12 SU/ATS in the NFL. On normal prep or less time (seven days or fewer), Levis is 1-9 SU/ATS as a starter. He has scored more than 17 points once in those ten games.
Two of Levis’ four career wins have come in night games. Outside that window, he's 2-11 SU/ATS as a starter.
How To Bet The Total
➤Will Levis is 8-7-1 to under in 16 starts. 8-2-1 to under when home team scores 26 or less, 0-5 to under when they score 27 or more.
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Broncos Break Raiders Curse Under Bo Nix
➤The Broncos have struggled mightily with the Raiders in recent years, but that all broke with Bo Nix in Week 5 – a 34-18 win over Vegas. Denver had lost 8 consecutive games SU vs. Raiders, including 1-10 SU in their last 11 matchups prior to their win earlier this year.
The ATS numbers aren’t any better. Denver is still 2-12 ATS vs. Raiders since the middle of the 2017 season.
Broncos haven’t beaten the Raiders in Oakland or Vegas since October of 2015 behind Peyton Manning. Raiders haven't been swept in season series by Denver since 2014.
Broncos Finally Hit Preseason Win Total Mark
➤Denver finally did it. With a win total of 5.5, they are now 6-5 SU this season and have eclipsed their preseason win total for the first time since 2015.
The Broncos had gone under their win total in four straight years and were 0-7-1 to their win total over since 2016. They had last gone over their win total back in 2015 when they won the Super Bowl with Peyton Manning.
Bo Nix’s Midseason Surge in Efficiency
➤The reason for that elevated play is Bo Nix. Between Weeks 1-4, he had a CPOE (completion pct over expected) that ranked 30th in the NFL. Since Week 5, Nix is 12th in the NFL.
Bo Nix is 5-1 ATS on the road this season, tied with Joe Burrow for the best mark in the NFL.
Sean Payton’s Success After Near-Perfect Games
➤Denver is coming off a nearly perfect game last week vs. Falcons, with 0 turnovers and winning by 20+ pts. It’s the first time a Sean Payton team will be coming off a game with those parameters in Denver, he was 13-7 SU/ATS in New Orleans in his next coached game.
Home Divisional Underdogs: Recent ATS Struggles
➤We have four home divisional underdogs this week. Those teams are just 26-36-3 ATS (42%) over the last two seasons.
Minshew’s ATS Misfortunes Against Payton-Coached Teams
➤Gardner Minshew has faced a Sean Payton-coached team twice in his career, once with the Raiders and once with the Jaguars.
Minshew is 0-2 SU/ATS in those games, losing on the moneyline by 11.5 PPG, scoring 24 total pts in the two games.
Raiders Lead the League in Turnovers
➤Raiders are currently tied for the lead in turnovers on offense with 20 this season and their turnover differential of -15 is tied for their worst through ten games in franchise history.
Historically Strong Spot for Streaking Home Dogs
➤Actually a good spot here for Vegas. Teams on a 6+ game SU losing streak, who is listed as a home dog vs. a divisional opponent is 24-61 SU, but 48-32-5 ATS since 1990.
Cardinals Break NFC West ATS Losing Streak
➤The Cardinals have covered the spread in three straight games vs. NFC West. Prior to this streak since the end of last season, they were 1-13 ATS in their previous 14 games in division.
Even with this 3-game ATS win streak, Kyler Murray is just 9-14-2 ATS vs. NFC West in his career – 4-2-1 ATS vs. 49ers and 5-12-1 ATS vs. the Seahawks and Rams.
Kyler has only played three career road games vs. NFC West where the spread was shorter than +3 – he is 0-3 SU/ATS in those games, with two coming in Seattle.
Seattle Teams Avoid Letdowns After Big Divisional Wins
➤Most would assume a letdown from Seattle’s side. Since 2018, teams off a SU win as a road dog vs. divisional opponent the week before are actually 68-46-4 ATS (60%) in their next game.
Kyler’s Poor Record Off a Bye Week
➤Kyler has started five career games on a full bye during the season, his teams are 1-4 SU/ATS in those games, failing to cover the spread by 9.1 PPG. His only win? Also his only road game off a bye in 2021 in Chicago.
Kyler has started 14 total games where his team was on extended prep and he is 5-9 ATS in those games.
Kyler’s Road Unders: A Profitable Trend
➤Kyler road unders have been profitable in his career. They are 23-12-1 and .500 or better in all five of his seasons entering this year – he’s ranked third of 275 QBs since 2005 in road unders. At home, Murray is just the opposite. 22-18 to the over in his career.
Kyler’s ATS Struggles in November and Beyond
➤Kyler has started 28 games in his career where his team is above .500 SU, Arizona is 12-16 ATS in those games. When that game is played in November or later, they are 4-12 ATS.
Seahawks’ Home ATS Struggles Under Geno Smith
➤The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS at home this season, failing to cover the spread by 5 PPG. For what once was a place where cover dreams went to die, Seattle is just 8-15 ATS at home since 2022, 2nd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Patriots.
Since the beginning of last season, Geno Smith is 3-10 ATS at home – the worst mark for any QB in the NFL.
Geno’s three covers have come against Skylar Thompson, Josh Dobbs and Andy Dalton.
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Brock Purdy’s Long Run as a Favorite Ends
➤Brock Purdy has made 37 career starts entering this week. He’s only been listed as an underdog once, against the 49ers in the 2022-23 playoffs where he got hurt and Philly won 31-7.
Purdy has gone his first 31 career regular season starts as a favorite, with that streak now breaking this week vs. Packers.
Shanahan’s Mixed Success vs. Packers
➤Kyle Shanahan has faced the Packers seven times in his career. He is 3-0 SU in the playoffs and 1-3 SU during the regular season.
49ers’ Second Half ATS Struggles Persist
➤The 49ers are having a 2nd half issue. They are 2-8 against the second half spread this year, losing 8 of their last nine second halves ATS.
In Brock Purdy’s first two seasons in the NFL, he was 17-10 against the 2H spread. In his career, the issue has mainly been on the road, where he is 6-11 2H ATS, losing his last five 2Hs ATS.
Shanahan’s Impressive Record After Blown Leads
➤How does Kyle Shanahan deal with the bounce back? Off a loss. Off a division loss. Off a loss as a favorite. Off a game after he led.
After he lost a game he led by 4+ pts, he’s 10-1 SU in his last 11 games in that spot since the middle of the 2021 season (9-2 ATS). After blowing a lead vs. an NFC West team, he’s 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS as coach of the 49ers.
49ers’ Recent SU Struggles Include Key Losses
➤It was labeled the game of the year. The game had lots of expectations and the 49ers lost 33-19 at home to the Ravens. It was Christmas of last year, Week 16. Including that game, SF is just 8-8 SU in their last 16 total games.
Purdy and the 49ers Struggle After Low Passing Games
➤Last week, the 49ers had just 146 passing yards and Purdy’s 5.7 yards per attempt was the 2nd-lowest mark in his career (2023 vs. Browns was lowest).
There’s a chance it doesn’t get fixed right away. Under Shanahan, 49ers have thrown 150 pass yds or less four times with a road/neutral game on deck. They’ve gone 0-4 SU in those games, scoring 20 pts or less in all four
Jordan Love’s ATS Troubles as a Favorite
➤The role as a favorite hasn’t been too kind to Jordan Love. Love is 4-7 ATS as a favorite in his short career and 10-7 ATS as an underdog.
In Love’s 28-start NFL career, he’s already had two separate 4-game ATS losing streaks, including the one he is on right now.
Love’s Numbers Show a Tale of Two Halves
➤Even though Love has been able to score pts for the Packers and win games, something is off in his numbers. Love is tied with Mahomes and Geno for the most INT this season, with 11. Love’s EPA/play this year is ranked 14th – of the top 18 QBs in EPA/play, Love is the only one with a negative CPOE (completion pct over expected).
For betting purposes, 9 of Love’s 11 INT have been in the first half. He has an 8 TD with just 2 INT record in the second half this season.
Here is Love’s passer rating based on situation:
78.4 – When leading
104.6 – When trailing
Sunday Night Football Unders Continue Strong Trend
➤Sunday Night Football unders. Since 2022, they are 37-18 (67%), including 34-13 during the regular season. That includes a regular season mark of 64-35-2 (65%) since 2019. This season, they are 8-3 to the under.
A.J. Brown’s Impact on Eagles’ Scoring
➤The Eagles have played ten games this season and are 7-0 SU when A.J. Brown has played, averaging 30 points per game. When he's been out, they're 1-2 and averaging 17.3 points.
Hurts Elevates Play During Eagles’ Winning Streak
➤Lately we’ve seen a great Jalen Hurts. In his last six games, the Eagles are 6-0 SU. Since Week 6, he's 4th in EPA/play and 5th in success rate, and he's 2nd in CPOE with 17 total TDs and one INTs.
Saquon Barkley’s Dominant Second-Half Rushing
➤Saquon Barkley has been tough to deal with for defenses all season, but his 103 carries (T-2nd), 738 rushing yards (1st) and 7.2 yards/carry (1st) in the second half has been dominant.
Playing one fewer game than Derrick Henry, Saquon is also in the drivers seat to lead the NFL in rushing, just 48 yds behind him. He was +700 to lead the category in the preseason.
Jalen Hurts Profitable on Road Unders
➤Road unders with Jalen Hurts have been the way lately. Hurts is 21-12 to the under on the road in his career, including 11-4 since the start of last season. That's the 2nd-best mark of any QB in the NFL.
Hurts’ Road Favorite ATS Woes Turn Around in 2024
➤Jalen Hurts entered 2024, 6-14-1 ATS as a favorite away from home – 61st of 62 QBs in that span.
In 2024, he is 3-1 ATS as a road/neutral favorite, scoring 28+ pts in 3 of the 4 games.
Eagles Struggle ATS on Extended Prep
➤Eagles and Nikc Sirianni have some extra rest entering this game. In Hurts’ career, he has started eight games on the road on extended prep and Philly is 2-6 ATS in those games, failing to cover the spread by 7.7 PPG – that is the 4th-worst mark for any QB since 2003.
Hurts Dominates Home Night Games, Struggles on Road
➤Last week was the 12th home night game Jalen Hurts has played with the Eagles. He's 9-2-1 ATS in those games, 5th-best of any QB since 2003 — the only QBs ahead of him are Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning.
In a road/neutral game, Hurts is just 3-6 ATS even after his cover vs. Packers in Brazil earlier this season. On just the road, he’s 2-5 ATS in night games.
McVay and Stafford Shine as Favorites, Falter as Underdogs
➤McVay and Stafford have very much played their role as a duo with the Rams, they are 27-9 SU when listed as favorites and only 6-14 SU as underdogs.
McVay’s ATS Success on Short Rest in Night Games
➤Sean McVay is 20-17-2 ATS coaching night games in his NFL career. When that night game is on short rest for McVay, he’s 7-3 ATS, when it’s on normal or extended rest, he’s just 10-12-2 ATS.
Stafford’s Struggles as a Dog Since Super Bowl Run
➤Earlier this year vs. the Vikings, Stafford won as a dog in a night game. Overall in his career, he is just 5-19 SU in that spot – never winning more than one such game in a single season.
Stafford needs to turn the clock back to his Super Bowl run. He went 3-0 SU as a dog that year. Since then, he’s 3-14 SU as a dog. Career, he’s 31-79 SU as an underdog — 28%.
Since 2022, Stafford is the 3rd-worst QB in ML profit ahead of only Bryce Young and Mac Jones.
Eagles Face Ravens Next: Beware the Lamar Effect
➤The Eagles have the Ravens on deck next week. Teams with Baltimore on deck are 71-39 SU (65%) since Lamar Jackson became the starter in 2018, which is the best win percentage for any opponent on deck. As they said in “The Wire,” “Lamar is coming.”
Going Too Good
➤Things can only go so right for so long. Teams to score 24+ in five straight, and are listed as a favorite, 45% ATS since 2003. When they’ve also won all five games SU, 42% ATS.
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MNF Overs Surge in 2024 Despite High Totals
➤Monday Night Football overs have been the trend in 2024. They aer 10-4 to the over, going over by 5.8 PPG. With an over on MNF, it would be the 2nd-best year in the last 20 years for overs on MNF behind 2008.
With a high total, buyer beware. On the other side, MNF totals of 49+ are just 24-35 to the over since 2010,
Lamar Jackson Shines in Tight Spread Games
➤As either a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog, Lamar is 25-6 ATS in his career in the regular season.
When Jackson is favored by more than 3 points in his career, he is 25-35-1 ATS, including the playoffs.
Lamar Jackson Rules Regular Season Night Games
➤Lamar Jackson is the king of night games during the regular season. He is 19-5 SU (79%) at night, the best win pct of any QB min. 15 starts since the merger.
Lamar Jackson: 19-5 SU
Steve Young: 23-7 SU
Ken Stabler: 15-5-1 SU
Joe Montana: 22-8 SU
Of note, Lamar is 0-2 SU in night games during the playoffs.
Lamar’s Mixed ATS Record After SU Losses
➤Lamar was 4-0 ATS last year after a SU loss. In 2024, he is 2-1 ATS after a loss.
In his career, Lamar is just 11-11 ATS after a SU loss, including 6-2 ATS at a road or neutral site and 5-9 ATS at home after a loss
After a SU loss, Lamar has been favored by less than 3 pts or a dog six times and he is 6-0 ATS.
Chargers’ Defense Dominates First Halves This Season
➤Chargers were the 9th team in the Super Bowl era to allow 20 points or fewer in each of the first 9 games of a season. Last week they allowed the Bengals to get to 27 pts with their second half surge.
Chargers defense has allowed 7 pts or less in ten straight first halves entering this week: 7, 3, 5, 7, 0, 7, 7, 0, 7, 6
Herbert’s Historic Second-Half ATS Struggles
➤Herbert has struggled against the second-half spread in his career (32.4% ATS), but even more so at night at 4-14-1 2H ATS in his career, including 2-11-1 2H ATS when the Chargers had a lead entering the half.
Herbert is 22-46-5 (32%) against the second-half spread in his career. In the past 20 seasons, he ranks 261st of 262 QBs in second-half ATS profitability, ahead of only Matthew Stafford. He’s 11-31-2 against the second-half spread when leading at halftime (-$2,108 — third-worst in NFL since 2005).
Chargers Seek Rare Four-Game Home Cover Streak
➤Chargers aren’t historically great home teams. Entering this matchup, they’ve covered three in a row at home for the first time since the 2014 season.
The Chargers haven’t covered the spread in 4 straight home games since the 2007 season, when they covered seven straight at home.
Ravens Thrive After Facing Steelers
➤Not a huge issue. In franchise history, the Ravens are 25-7 SU when listed as a favorite the week after facing the Steelers.
Lamar’s Success Against First-Time Opposing Coaches
➤Jim Harbaugh has never faced Lamar Jackson prior to this week. In Lamar Jackson’s 94 career starts, he has faced a coach for the first time 43 times – he is 36-7 SU (85%), 23-20 ATS in those games. In a coach's first two games vs. Lamar, Jackson is 51-16 SU, 35-31-1 ATS. In a coach's 3rd game or later, Lamar is just 16-11 SU and 15-12 ATS.
Lamar’s First Half Road ATS Success Slips in 2024
➤Away from home, Lamar is 31-14-1 against the first half spread in his career, but just 2-4 1H ATS this season.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Later in the season, it's time to start betting the better teams in matchups with bigger differentials.
Matches: Fade these teams -> CLE, CAR, DAL, CHI, TEN
System: Bet big home dogs.
Matches: IND, CAR
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System: Late season divisional unders. Higher ROI with higher totals.
Matches: NE/MIA, DAL/WAS, ARI/SEA
System: Bad underdogs who are being undervalued on the season.
Matches: CLE, NYG, LVR, CHI, TEN, NE
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