NFL Picks, Predictions: Expert Bets on Spreads, Totals | Week 7
Getty Images. Pictured: Baker Mayfield (left) and Austin Ekeler.
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NFL Picks, Predictions: Expert Bets on Spreads, Totals | Week 7
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
We're off to another strong start this season as we roll along with our NFL picks and predictions and my expert bets on spreads and totals for Week 7.
As Sunday continues, I have another pick and prediction against the spread today, where we'll be backing an underdog. I also broke down Dolphins vs. Eagles odds and my betting prediction, which you can read about here.
Let's get this shmoney!
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | +220 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | -270 |
Whether the Chargers are the NFL’s best bad team, its worst good team or simply its most mid team is up for debate, but what isn’t up for debate is that Justin Herbert keeps them in almost every game, regardless of opponent.
Despite having a losing record on the year, the Chargers are yet to lose a game by more than three points. Dating back to last season and including the playoffs, they’ve lost by six or more points only three times in their last 23 games.
Per our Action Labs data, Herbert is 5-1 ATS against the Chiefs, covering by 4.7 points per game. And regardless of opponent, Herbert is 10-1 (91%) ATS as a 'dog of more than a field goal, covering by 3.6 points per game.
The Chargers defense has improved since moving on from J.C. Jackson and should be able to keep Herbert within striking distance against a Chiefs offense that hasn't quite been as dominant as years past, averaging 24.5 points per game (10th) and topping 23 points only twice.
Since early November 2020, the Chiefs are just 14-27 (34%) ATS when favored by more than a field goal.
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Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Despite their surprising 3-1 start, I thought the Bucs were a good bet to struggle last week against the Lions. This week, I think they're a good bet to bounce back this week against the Falcons.
Through six weeks, the Bucs have been better than the Falcons in all three phases: Tampa Bay ranks seven spots better than Atlanta in offensive DVOA (19th vs. 26th), 14 spots better in defensive DVOA (10th vs. 24th) and one spot better on special teams (28th vs. 29th).
A couple of things work in the Bucs' favor offensively in this matchup.
1) Dave Canales got the job as Bucs offensive coordinator off the strength of his role in Geno Smith’s career resurgence, and the early returns with Baker Mayfield are promising. The Bucs rank 10th in EPA per dropback (0.064) and 15th in passing DVOA. Mayfield, Mike Evans and company should be able to exploit a Falcons pass defense that ranks 24th in EPA per dropback and 29th in DVOA.
Meanwhile, the Bucs still have no run game to speak of – they have gained 73.0% of their total yardage through the air, fourth-most – which mutes the impact of an Atlanta run defense that ranks second in EPA per rush and ninth in DVOA.
2) Mayfield’s biggest improvement has been in his ability to use his legs under pressure – not just to scramble, but also to buy extra time in the pocket for Evans and Chris Godwin to come open downfield. Among 35 qualified quarterbacks under pressure, Mayfield ranks first in yards per attempt (8.2), first in passer rating (107.3), and second in sack rate (8.2%).
Mayfield’s newfound ability to evade pressure has allowed him to be even more efficient under pressure than from a clean pocket, which again makes Atlanta an ideal matchup, as the Falcons are third in pressure rate (29.1%) but 27th in sack rate (5.2%). The added stress put on the Falcons secondary due to their inability to convert pressures into sacks has led to them racking up the second-most defensive penalty yardage on passing plays (164), per nflpenalties.com.
Defensively, the Bucs are capable of slowing down both the run (10th in DVOA) and pass (11th), though Desmond Ridder may take care of the latter all by himself. Pro Football Focus grades Ridder as the worst quarterback in the league through six weeks, charging him with a league-high 14 turnover-worthy throws.
This is a great spot for the Bucs, who are playing at home for the second straight week after their Week 5 bye and are facing perhaps the worst road quarterback in the league.
Ridder famously hadn’t lost a home start since his junior year of high school until last week, but he’s still looking for his first road win in the NFL. In four career road starts by Ridder, the Falcons have been outscored by more points (41) than they’ve scored (40). Ridder goes from a 67.4% completion percentage, 7.3 yards per attempt, and a 92.0 passer rating at home to a 58.6% completion percentage, 5.5 yards per attempt, and a 70.0 passer rating on the road. The Falcons are 5-1 SU and average 22.7 points per game in Ridder’s home starts, but they’re 0-4 straight-up (SU) with the aforementioned 10.0 point-per-game average on the road.
Though I prefer the moneyline, it’s worth pointing out that Ridder has been bad against the spread regardless of location. Per our Action Labs data, he is 3-7 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 2.4 points per game.
Pick: Buccaneers ML (-140)
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Commanders vs. Giants
At first glance, this looks like a matchup in which one team is average (3-3 Washington) and one team is terrible (1-5 New York). But the biggest gap between these two teams lies not with quality, nor injury luck (though that has certainly played a part), but strength of schedule. All five Giants losses came against teams that made the playoffs last season, including four teams that currently sit among the top six in Super Bowl odds (Dallas, San Francisco, Miami, Buffalo).
Neither team has an impressive win: The Giants beat the Cardinals by three, while the Commanders beat the Cardinals by four, Broncos by two and Falcons by eight in a game that saw Atlanta out-gain Washington by 209 yards and squander three separate chances to tie the game in the fourth quarter. The Giants were also much more competitive than the Commanders against the Bills, losing by five while Washington lost by 34. Washington also lost to the lowly Bears by 20.
While the Giants average point differential of -16.0 is worst in the NFL, their schedule-adjusted point differential (also known as Simple Rating System, or SRS) is -9.4, which is 2.4 points better than Washington’s -11.8 mark, according to Pro Football Reference.
There have been a number of positive recent developments that helped the Giants come within a yard of upsetting Buffalo, more closely resembling the team that went 10-2 against the spread (ATS) as a 'dog last season rather than the one that started 0-4 ATS as a 'dog this season.
1) Saquon Barkley returned last week after missing three games with an ankle injury and showcased both explosiveness (runs of 19, 34 to start the fourth quarter) and the ability to handle a heavy workload (28 touches). He will be key against a Commanders defense allowing the 10th-most rushing yards per game (129.0) and the seventh-most yards per carry (4.6).
2) Last week’s gaffe at the end of the first half notwithstanding, Tyrod Taylor showed there’s no major drop-off from him to Daniel Jones (neck), who is a long shot to start. In fact, Taylor was an upgrade on Jones, posting a positive EPA/play (0.042) while Jones has posted a negative mark (-0.191).
3) Though left tackle Andrew Thomas (hamstring) remains out, Taylor is still working with a better offensive line situation than Jones has been. Justin Pugh graded out nearly 10 points higher last week at Pro Football Focus than anyone else the team has used in place of Thomas has on the season. Tyre Phillips, who started five games at tackle for the Giants last season, was signed off the Eagles practice squad this week and also represents an upgrade.
The Commanders defensive line wreaking havoc is an obvious concern, but the Giants have long had a bad offensive line and are still 4-2 ATS against Washington since Chase Young was drafted, 6-2 ATS against Washington since Montez Sweat was drafted, 7-3 ATS against Washington since Daron Payne as drafted, and 8-4 ATS against Washington since Jonathan Allen was drafted.
4) Daboll finally started his best three at wide receiver last week, with Darius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt and Wan’Dale Robinson playing the majority of the snaps. Isaiah Hodgins was limited to 22% of the snaps in a WR4/red-zone threat that he is better suited for. Sterling Shepard and Parris Campbell played one snap combined.
5) Fat was trimmed on defense as well, with Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale rarely taking his best defensive lineman off the field. Leonard Williams played on a season-high 90% of defensive snaps in Week 6 after 62% in Weeks 1-5, and Dexter Lawrence was in on a season-high 80% of defensive snaps after logging a 68% snap rate in Weeks 1-5.
Despite rightly showing restraint last week, Martindale's defense has still blitzed at the fourth-highest rate this season and now gets a great matchup to return to their identity. Among 33 qualified quarterbacks versus the blitz, Sam Howell ranks 29th in yards per attempt (5.6), 29th in passer rating (73.5), and 32nd in pressure-to-sack rate (29.0%). Howell has a brighter future than guys like Ridder and Kenny Pickett, but he is still a lot more likely than Taylor to make the big mistake. Howell’s career interception rate of 3.0% is nearly double that of Taylor (1.6%).
The Giants’ failure to execute at the end of each half last week is likely inflating their spread and giving us free points. It also left them with an NFL-low average of 11.8 points per game. But according to our Action Labs data, teams averaging 12.5 or fewer points after having played at least four games are 77-48-2 (62%) ATS as dogs up to Game 14 over the past two decades, covering by an average of 2.2 points per game. At home, that mark improves to 34-19-1 (64%) with an average cover margin of +2.7.
Pick: Giants +3 (-108)
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Browns vs. Colts
The Browns defense is elite – first in overall DVOA, first against the pass, fourth against the run – and should be able to stymie a Colts offense led by Gardner Minshew, who ranks 26th in Adjusted EPA (-0.039) and 29th in Success Rate (42.0%).
Minshew has struggled under pressure, ranking dead last in Pro Football Focus' grade when under duress (23.2). The Browns have generated pressure 28.1% of the time, the sixth highest, and 10 spots ahead of the next-best pass rush the Colts have faced (Jacksonville). Minshew will be without right tackle Braden Smith, whose 75.9 Pro Football Focus grade ranks 14th of 74 qualified tackles.
Deshaun Watson is tentatively expected to return from a two-game absence due to a shoulder injury, but he tends to struggle against defenses similar to the Colts. Though the Colts defense is decidedly mediocre – 17th in DVOA against the pass, 18th against the run – it likes to sit back in zones and keep seven defenders or more in coverage and has blitzed an NFL-low 15.9% of the time, which can confuse Watson and also limit his ability to scramble. Watson’s 65.9 Pro Football Focus grade when not blitzed ranks 26th of 37 qualified passers, and his 46.4 mark last season was 42nd of 43. Backup P.J. Walker has been even worse when not blitzed this season, ranking dead last with a 22.7 grade.
According to our Action Labs data, the under is 7-2 (78%) in Watson’s starts with the Browns, covering by an average of 8.1 points per game.
Pick: Under 41 (Play to 38)
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