NFL Live Betting Week 17: How We’re Live Betting Thursday Night Football

Thursday Night Football in 2023 comes to a fitting end, a game with a 34 (or lower!) total between the hapless Jets and the Browns in Cleveland. The home team has all but clinched a playoff spot already, leaving little to care about in this game.

Unless, of course, you want to live bet it. That might be the only thing that makes this one worth watching, so we'll do our best to dig up some angles

NFL Live Betting for Thursday Night Football in Week 17

Jets at Browns: Watch The Line Movement — LIVE BET MADE, Over 66.5 (-114, FanDuel)

I never would've believed this game produced 51 halftime points if you told me ahead of time, but here we are. As crazy as it sounds, the best bet is that there will be even more scoring. Live lines are as low as 66.5 on FanDuel, which means we need just 16 more points. Cleveland should be able to go run heavy, which we predicted would be — and has been — very efficient for the Browns. A Browns lead also plays quicker, so we'll take over 66.5 at -114 on FanDuel.

Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:

Initially, this seemed like an ideal "any excuse for an under" game.  The underdog Jets somehow rank dead last in the NFL in offensive DVOA both rushing AND passing, while Cleveland is the league's top overall defense by DVOA.

However, it's not quite that simple. The Browns are capable of clearing the pregame total of 34 themselves in the right game script, as they did last week in their 36-22 win over the Texans. They've improbably seemed to find the answer at quarterback in 38 year-old Joe Flacco, and they have an occasionally effective run game despite losing star back Nick Chubb early in the season.

That sets up well against the Jets, who clung to relevancy for a time thanks to their elite pass defense. They rank third in DVOA against the pass, but just 13th against the run.

The dream scenario here is being able to play the middle with line movement both directions. Ideally, we get a bit of a slow start with Cleveland trying to build a lead, and a total that dips into the 20s. We'd play the over from there, and bank on the Browns run game to take over late. If and when Cleveland starts putting up points, we'd then have a "time the under" situation where we try to catch the highest total possible before the Browns go ball control.

This game projects to play faster than average with a Browns lead or in a close game, lending further credence to taking the over, especially if that number dips. Obviously, it's entirely possible we only get one of the two scenarios outlined above, in which case we'd be happy to let it ride on either one.

The less likely scenario is the Jets develop an early lead. If that happens AND the total rises, that's a perfect under scenario. Cleveland trailing would produce the slowest combined pace, and they'll have a hard time chasing points against the Jets pass defense. It's hard to see that happening without some fluky scoring from New York — but that would be even better for the under.

Stay tuned to this article throughout the game to see how we're playing it, as we could have multiple bets as this one plays out.

How We Approach Live Betting in General

The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.

The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.

Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.

Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.