Chiefs vs Dolphins Odds
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | -120 |
Chiefs vs. Dolphins odds have Kansas City installed as a short "home" favorite, with a total of 51 that is the highest of NFL Week 9 odds.
The marquee game of NFL Week 9 has the defending-champion Chiefs installed as 1.5-point favorites on the spread as of early Sunday morning. Kansas City had been -2 earlier in the week.
For what is likely the best NFL international game ever, let's break down the matchup and make our Chiefs vs. Dolphins prediction.
Chiefs vs Dolphins
Matchup Analysis
The Chiefs under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have thrived in this situation, while the Dolphins still have a lot to prove given their relatively easy schedule through eight weeks.
The Dolphins lead the AFC East at 6-2, but they have only faced two teams who rank in the NFL's top 12 in team DVOA — Buffalo and Philadelphia, and both games were lost by an average of 21 points. Miami's wins have come against the Chargers (14th in team DVOA), Patriots (23rd), Broncos (27th), Panthers (31st) and Giants (32nd).
The Dolphins have yet to beat a team with a winning record, and since the beginning of 2021, they have won only 4-of-14 games against teams above .500. Outside of Hard Rock Stadium, they are 2-2 this season.
The Chiefs represent another difficult test for Miami, and more specifically, for Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins offense is the best in the league on a yards-per-play basis (7.3). They also own the top offense in football in yards per passing play, averaging a healthy 8.4 yards.
The Chiefs, who allow only 5.0 yards per passing play (No. 2 in the NFL), match up quite well against Tagovailoa and company.
The real kryptonite for the Dolphins is pressure on the quarterback. According to Sharp Football, Tagovailoa has only been pressured on 21.3% of his dropbacks, getting the ball out of his hands at 2.24 seconds per attempt. Both of these metrics rank Tagovailoa first among all quarterbacks.
However, when Tagovailoa is pressured, his completion percentage dips to 37.4% in comparison to when he is kept clean. The only quarterback with a worse differential this season is Jimmy Garoppolo.
Bet Kansas City vs. Miami at FanDuel
The Chiefs' defensive pressure rate is a solid 36.2%, ranking them 11th. The Dolphins' offensive line remains relatively untested; this will only be their second game against a defense that's top 15 in pressure rate.
Miami's best offensive lineman has clearly been RG Robert Hunt, who is PFF's ninth-highest graded guard. Hunt, however, has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. This will be the sixth different starting offensive line combination Miami has had to use this season.
Given their injuries and weak strength of schedule, I am expecting the Chiefs to disrupt the timing of the Dolphins offense. Kansas City's defensive unit has produced the third-most sacks this season with 28, and it leads the league in batted passes at the line of scrimmage — a stat that could come into play against Tagovailoa.
This is a clear bounce-back spot for Mahomes. The Dolphins have taken on three offenses in the top 10 in DVOA, and they have given up an average of 37.6 points per game in those contests.
Mahomes was reportedly bothered by the flu bug last week in Denver, so I am willing to give him a pass for his poor performance. Even with that game factored in, and his receivers ranking second in the league in dropped passes, he is still leading an offense averaging 14.3 gains of 10-plus yards per game, which is third best in the league.
I expect Kansas City's offense as a whole to regain its form against the 22nd-ranked DVOA defense.
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Chiefs vs Dolphins
Betting Picks & Predictions
The trends also back Kansas City pretty clearly. Mahomes has won 15-of-18 games following a loss, and when that game is not played at Arrowhead, he’s won 11-of-12 in this spot.
Backing the Chiefs in closely lined games has been highly profitable, as Mahomes has covered at a 71.4% rate in his career when the spread is three points or fewer. Andy Reid is 20-11 (64.5%) against the spread in closely lined affairs.
I will happily lay anything under a field goal with Kansas City.
Pick: Chiefs -1.5 (Play to -2.5) |
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