Commanders vs. Eagles Odds & Betting Predictions - January 4, 2026

Got this # yesterday, but this is good to 3.5

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Underrated backup I think will surprise some people. Could see him being very efficient early on setting up more of a run heavy game script. He will likely be without AJB/Smith/Goedert which caps his upside a bit. Proj him closer to 215.5 with around a 59% chance to stay under 227.5. Obviously a wide range of outcomes which is the case for most Week 18 props

TD 🪜

@gneiffer07 https://myaction.app/Rn4JKP7ZBZb

I'm not going to pretend I like much of anything about the Commanders. The defense is old, and Josh Johnson stinks. This is fully about the number in a rest spot for Philadelphia. The Eagles already announced they're resting Jalen Hurts and a number of other starters, and it makes sense — the team is locked as the 3-seed unless they win and get a Bears loss. This game is mostly meaningless for Philadelphia. That announcement saw the line drop from around Eagles -7.5 on Sunday night to Eagles -4.5, with the total also dropping three points, but that's not nearly enough. This is the top-heaviest team in the league, a full stars-and-scrubs roster with a huge amount invested into its top guys. It's not just Hurts — take Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, either of Jordan Mailata or Lane Johnson out of the lineup, and the offense gets significantly worse. There's little depth behind these guys — same with the star tackles and corners in defense. This line has not moved anywhere close to enough. We don't know who all will or won't play, but I make it about 8-to-10 points in Washington's favor given the quality of starters likely missing and the lack of depth behind them. But this line moved only three points! And to be fair, Eagles -7.5 was likely a slight hedge on possible rest as I would make this Philadelphia -9.5 healthy, but that still puts this close to a coin flip with the Eagles resting. Tanner McKee is a fine backup but let's be real about the caliber of guys Philadelphia will be playing. It's all about the number, and if the number is off by that much, we should be aggressive: Commanders +4.5 along with +180 on the moneyline (DraftKings), and sprinkle part of your bet on Washington -6.5 too at +370 (bet365) in case the Eagles totally pack it in. If you do think Washington can win here, then Chicago's game becomes meaningless for the Bears. A Commanders-Lions moneyline parlay is correlated but not priced accordingly, so play that too at +536 (bet365).

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Trend play here. Teams resting their starters against opponents that had at least six fewer wins are just 9-13 SU and 8-11-3 ATS (42.1%) over the last 17 seasons. That’s Philly here. They are locked in to the 2 or 3 seed, so they’re getting a home playoff game no matter what…they have zero incentive to play anyone. The Commanders already took an L to Philly this season, so this is a nice opportunity to split the season series with the eagles treating it like a preseason game.

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