Commanders vs. Broncos Odds & Betting Predictions - September 17, 2023

Commanders at Broncos

8:25 pm • CBS

Washington Commanders

9-5

35 - 33

Denver Broncos

9-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Commanders 9-5	+4-110	o38.5-115	+156
Broncos 9-5	-4-110	u38.5-110	-190

Sunday 8:25 p.m.

September 17, 2023

Empower Field at Mile HighDenver

A.Trautman o2.5 Recs-110

1.1u

MGM. Russ loves his TEs - last season Broncos TEs averaged 5.7 targets per game in Russ’ starts - and that’s despite they fact they used Dulcich as more of a downfield target (13.3 aDOT). He’s on IR now, and Trautman figures to soak up essentially all of the receiving usage by the position (Chris Manhertz only ran 8 routes out of his 25 snaps and was not targeted - he’s known more as a blocker - Trautman ran 26 routes and was targeted 5 times for 5 catches). Jeudy is back, but I don’t see his presence affecting TE targets. I have Trautman seeing 5-6 targets.

DEN -2.5 (1H)-130

0.77u

DEN -3.5-110

0.55u

Over 38.5-110

0.5u

Denver D Anytime TD Scorer+700

0.25u

@GDAWG5000

DEN -184

0.1u

Round Robin 5/5

DEN -3.5-110

0.5u

DEN -3.5-110

$1.00

DEN -3.5-110

Too much data not to back the Broncos. Our Luck Rankings love them. @Stuckey2 loves them. So I do, too. Quickslip link to FD: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.395166016&selectionId[0]=50211&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

J.Williams o10.5 Rec Yds-120

0.83u

DEN -3.5-110

J.Jewell o7.5 Tackles + Ast-125

0.8u

R.Wilson o19.5 Pass Comp-115

$57.50

Tailing T Mack

S.Howell o3.5 Rush Att-105

1.05u

MGM. I am back on Howell, despite taking an L on this last week. Why? Well he only had 2 rush attempts, but he was “sacked” 3 times for 0 yards, and had two scrambles taken away by penalties. Eric Bienemy called out Howell’s ability to run this week as well. I will gladly take this vs a Broncos team that allowed the significantly less athletic Jimmy G to scramble three times last week.

Under 39-112

1.12u

Denver D Anytime TD Scorer+700

0.25u

Bet at DraftKings. This also includes special teams (D/ST). Watch The TD Show at 11:30am ET for full analysis.

DEN -3.5-110

1.1u

Stuckey 3

DEN -3.5-110

WAS +3.5-110

Under 39.5-110

0.6u

Wynn NV

DEN -3.5-105

1.05u

DEN -3.5-108

1.08u

Featured Insight
The Broncos have scored 16.8 points per game since the 2022 season -- second-worst in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 19.8 PPG since the 2022 season -- sixth-best in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Broncos have a third down conversion rate of 30.0% in late and close games since the 2022 season -- tied for fifth-worst in NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 29.0% in close and late situations since the 2022 season -- tied for fifth-best in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Broncos are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Broncos are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Broncos are 6-1 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Broncos' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Broncos' 7 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Broncos	11-3	5-2	6-1	7-0	4-3
Commanders	8-5-1	5-2	3-3-1	6-3	2-2-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Broncos	8-5-1	4-2-1	4-3	5-1-1	3-4
Commanders	9-5	4-3	5-2	5-4	4-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Broncos	9-5	N/A	N/A	7-0	2-5
Commanders	9-5	N/A	N/A	7-2	2-3

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 10th	LV	L 16-17	-3 L	U 43	LV -172
Aug 27th	LA	W 41-0	-5.5 W	O 37.5	DEN -227
Aug 20th	@SF	L 20-21	-3.5 L	O 40	SF -170
Aug 12th	@ARI	L 17-18	-6 L	U 37.5	ARI -258
Jan 8th	LAC	W 31-28	-6.5 L	O 39.5	DEN -265

Zach Ertz
TE
Ertz is doubtful with concussion
Doubtful
Tyler Ott
LS
Ott is questionable with illness
Questionable
Jamison Crowder
WR
Crowder is questionable with calf
Questionable
Cornelius Lucas
T
Lucas is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Nick Bellore
LB
Bellore is questionable with knee
Questionable
Zane Gonzalez
K
Gonzalez is questionable with foot
Questionable

Noah Brown
WR
Brown is out with knee
Out
Austin Ekeler
RB
Ekeler is out with concussion
Out
Daron Payne
DT
Payne is questionable with back
Questionable
Greg Joseph
K
Joseph is out with abdomen
Out
Austin Seibert
K
Seibert is out with hip
Out
Colson Yankoff
TE
Yankoff is out with hamstring
Out

Luke Wattenberg
C
Wattenberg is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Delarrin Turner-Yell
S
Turner-Yell is out with knee
Out
Riley Moss
CB
Moss is out with knee
Out
Drew Sanders
LB
Sanders is out with achilles
Out
Jaleel McLaughlin
RB
McLaughlin is out with quad
Out

See more NFL Injuries

Commanders

Total

Broncos

388

Total Yards

399

Total Plays

5.9

Yards Per Play

6.4

Commanders

Passing

Broncos

299

YDS

308

27/39

Comps/Atts

18/32

6.186

YPA

7.103

2/0

TDs/INTs

3/1

4/33

Sacks/Yards

7/31

Commanders

Rushing

Broncos

122

Rush Yards

122

Attempts

5.304

YPC

5.304

TDs

Commanders

Turnovers

Broncos

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Commanders

Efficiency

Broncos

3/3 100%

Redzone

2/4 50%

3/10 0%

3rd Down

4/12 0%

1/1 0%

4th Down

2/2 0%

Commanders

First Downs

Broncos

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Commanders

Misc

Broncos

8/71

Penalties/Yards

9/58

33:45

Possession

26:15

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MatchupOverUnder
Commanders 9-5	o16.5-130	u16.5-105
Broncos 9-5	o21.5-106	u21.5-116

Commanders vs. Broncos Odds & Betting Predictions - September 17, 2023

Commanders at Broncos

Washington Commanders

Denver Broncos

Commanders at Broncos Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

PRO Insights

Commanders

Broncos

Commanders vs. Broncos Previews & Analysis

McMurphy's Law: Looking Ahead to CFB Week 5

Stuckey's NFL Week 2 Betting Card

Kickin' It With Dr. Nick: 2 Kicker Props for Week 2

Commanders vs. Broncos: Denver Has Edge at Mile High

Commanders vs. Broncos Props

Prop Projections

Prop Odds Comparison

Line Movement Tracker

Commanders vs. Broncos Public Betting Percentages

Commanders

Public

Broncos

Bets%

Money%

Betting Trends

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

Commanders vs. Broncos Injury Updates

Commanders Injuries

Broncos Injuries

Commanders vs. Broncos Odds Comparison

Commanders at Broncos Team Totals