Commanders vs. Broncos Odds & Betting Predictions - September 17, 2023

Commanders at Broncos

8:25 pm • CBS

Washington Commanders

7-4

35 - 33

Denver Broncos

5-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Commanders 7-4	+4-110	o38.5-115	+156
Broncos 5-5	-4-110	u38.5-110	-190

Sunday 8:25 p.m.

September 17, 2023

Empower Field at Mile HighDenver

A.Trautman o2.5 Recs-110

1.1u

MGM. Russ loves his TEs - last season Broncos TEs averaged 5.7 targets per game in Russ’ starts - and that’s despite they fact they used Dulcich as more of a downfield target (13.3 aDOT). He’s on IR now, and Trautman figures to soak up essentially all of the receiving usage by the position (Chris Manhertz only ran 8 routes out of his 25 snaps and was not targeted - he’s known more as a blocker - Trautman ran 26 routes and was targeted 5 times for 5 catches). Jeudy is back, but I don’t see his presence affecting TE targets. I have Trautman seeing 5-6 targets.

DEN -2.5 (1H)-130

0.77u

DEN -3.5-110

0.55u

Over 38.5-110

0.5u

Denver D Anytime TD Scorer+700

0.25u

@GDAWG5000

DEN -184

0.1u

Round Robin 5/5

DEN -3.5-110

0.5u

DEN -3.5-110

$1.00

DEN -3.5-110

Too much data not to back the Broncos. Our Luck Rankings love them. @Stuckey2 loves them. So I do, too. Quickslip link to FD: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.395166016&selectionId[0]=50211&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

J.Williams o10.5 Rec Yds-120

0.83u

DEN -3.5-110

J.Jewell o7.5 Tackles + Ast-125

0.8u

R.Wilson o19.5 Pass Comp-115

$57.50

Tailing T Mack

S.Howell o3.5 Rush Att-105

1.05u

MGM. I am back on Howell, despite taking an L on this last week. Why? Well he only had 2 rush attempts, but he was “sacked” 3 times for 0 yards, and had two scrambles taken away by penalties. Eric Bienemy called out Howell’s ability to run this week as well. I will gladly take this vs a Broncos team that allowed the significantly less athletic Jimmy G to scramble three times last week.

DEN -3.5-110

1.1u

Under 39-112

1.12u

Denver D Anytime TD Scorer+700

0.25u

Bet at DraftKings. This also includes special teams (D/ST). Watch The TD Show at 11:30am ET for full analysis.

DEN -3.5-110

1.1u

Stuckey 3

DEN -3.5-110

WAS +3.5-110

Under 39.5-110

0.6u

Wynn NV

DEN -3.5-105

1.05u

DEN -3.5-108

1.08u

Featured Insight
The Broncos have scored 16.8 points per game since the 2022 season -- second-worst in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 19.8 PPG since the 2022 season -- sixth-best in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Broncos have a third down conversion rate of 30.0% in late and close games since the 2022 season -- tied for fifth-worst in NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 29.0% in close and late situations since the 2022 season -- tied for fifth-best in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Broncos are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Broncos are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Broncos are 5-1 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Broncos' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Broncos' 4 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Broncos	7-3	2-2	5-1	3-0	4-3
Commanders	7-3-1	4-1	3-2-1	5-1	2-2-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Broncos	6-4	3-1	3-3	3-0	3-4
Commanders	7-4	2-3	5-1	3-3	4-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Broncos	5-5	N/A	N/A	3-0	2-5
Commanders	7-4	N/A	N/A	5-1	2-3

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 10th	LV	L 16-17	-3 L	U 43	LV -172
Aug 27th	LA	W 41-0	-5.5 W	O 37.5	DEN -227
Aug 20th	@SF	L 20-21	-3.5 L	O 40	SF -170
Aug 12th	@ARI	L 17-18	-6 L	U 37.5	ARI -258
Jan 8th	LAC	W 31-28	-6.5 L	O 39.5	DEN -265

Tyler Ott
LS
Ott is questionable with illness
Questionable

Marshon Lattimore
CB
Lattimore is out with hamstring
Out
Austin Seibert
K
Seibert is out with hip
Out
Colson Yankoff
TE
Yankoff is out with hamstring
Out

Josh Reynolds
WR
Reynolds is out with hand
Out
Luke Wattenberg
C
Wattenberg is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Delarrin Turner-Yell
S
Turner-Yell is out with knee
Out
Drew Sanders
LB
Sanders is out with achilles
Out

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Commanders

Total

Broncos

388

Total Yards

399

Total Plays

5.9

Yards Per Play

6.4

Commanders

Passing

Broncos

299

YDS

308

27/39

Comps/Atts

18/32

6.186

YPA

7.103

2/0

TDs/INTs

3/1

4/33

Sacks/Yards

7/31

Commanders

Rushing

Broncos

122

Rush Yards

122

Attempts

5.304

YPC

5.304

TDs

Commanders

Turnovers

Broncos

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Commanders

Efficiency

Broncos

3/3 100%

Redzone

2/4 50%

3/10 0%

3rd Down

4/12 0%

1/1 0%

4th Down

2/2 0%

Commanders

First Downs

Broncos

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Commanders

Misc

Broncos

8/71

Penalties/Yards

9/58

33:45

Possession

26:15

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MatchupOverUnder
Commanders 7-4	o16.5-130	u16.5-105
Broncos 5-5	o21.5-106	u21.5-116

Commanders vs. Broncos Odds & Betting Predictions - September 17, 2023

Commanders at Broncos

Washington Commanders

Denver Broncos

Commanders at Broncos Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

PRO Insights

Commanders

Broncos

Commanders vs. Broncos Previews & Analysis

McMurphy's Law: Looking Ahead to CFB Week 5

Stuckey's NFL Week 2 Betting Card

Kickin' It With Dr. Nick: 2 Kicker Props for Week 2

Commanders vs. Broncos: Denver Has Edge at Mile High

Commanders vs. Broncos Props

Prop Projections

Prop Odds Comparison

Line Movement Tracker

Commanders vs. Broncos Public Betting Percentages

Commanders

Public

Broncos

Bets%

Money%

Betting Trends

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

Commanders vs. Broncos Injury Updates

Commanders Injuries

Broncos Injuries

Commanders vs. Broncos Odds Comparison

Commanders at Broncos Team Totals