Liberty vs Buffalo Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
We head out to Amherst, NY, where the Liberty Flames will take on the Buffalo Bulls.
The Flames, despite trailing for most of the first half, are coming off a nice win against a miserable New Mexico State team.
Meanwhile, Buffalo is coming off of an embarrassing loss to Fordham (FCS) in which it allowed opposing QB CJ Montes to throw for five touchdowns.
Will the Bulls bounce back? Or is Liberty's offense too much to handle? Let's break down this matchup and see if we can find the best betting angle.
Liberty Flames
The Flames' offense racked up 526 yards and averaged almost 11 yards per passing attempt last week. QB Kaidon Salter had a nice day as he completed 15-of-26 passes for 260 yards.
This matchup should set up for another nice day for Liberty's offense. Although the Flames haven't faced the most grueling schedule, they're inside the top 50 in both Rushing and Passing Success Rates (45th and 48th). They're 32nd in Havoc Allowed, so I don't see any reason why the Flames won't be able to move the ball against the Bulls.
However, I have concerns about their ability to finish drives as they're 90th in Offensive Finishing Drives.
The Flames also have some concerns on the defensive side of the ball. Liberty ranks in the 120th or worse in both Line Yards and Rush Success Rate. To put the cherry on top, they're 119th in PFF tackling.
If the Flames want to win this game on the road, they're going to have to put up a ton of points. I don't see them getting many stops, and their ability to finish drives is a bit worrisome in this particular spot.
Buffalo Bulls
The Bulls lost an absolute stunner last weekend, which is giving me concerns about their defense. If Fordham is throwing the ball all over the yard against you, it's safe to say your defense needs some serious work.
The Bulls rank beyond the top 100 in a ton of defensive categories, including Line Yards, Rush Success and Finishing Drives.
I have a hard time believing the Bulls are going to win this game with a stout defensive effort. They gave up 340 rushing yards to Wisconsin in Week 1, which made the 150 rushing yards they gave up to Fordham last week seem like a massive improvement.
I think the Bulls' offense will have some success against Liberty's poor defense, though. The Bulls should be able to sustain long drives with their rushing attack. Tailbacks Mike Washington Jr. and Ron Cook Jr. should take advantage of Liberty's defense.
Quarterback Cole Snyder is completing 70% of his passes and has yet to turn the ball over. If he plays a clean game, I think the Bulls are primed to take this matchup down to the wire.
Liberty vs Buffalo
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Liberty and Buffalo match up statistically:
Liberty Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 48 | 108 | |
| Line Yards | 48 | 118 | |
| Pass Success | 45 | 62 | |
| Havoc | 32 | 72 | |
| Finishing Drives | 90 | 120 | |
| Quality Drives | 19 | 122 | |
Buffalo Offense vs. Liberty Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 63 | 122 | |
| Line Yards | 67 | 126 | |
| Pass Success | 108 | 30 | |
| Havoc | 11 | 21 | |
| Finishing Drives | 112 | 47 | |
| Quality Drives | 89 | 60 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 119 | 69 |
| PFF Coverage | 19 | 68 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 95 | 66 |
| Middle 8 | 107 | 124 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.1 (97) | 24.3 (25) |
| Rush Rate | 69.2% (5) | 45.8% (113) |
Liberty vs Buffalo
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a nice buy-low opportunity on the Bulls. Liberty has looked explosive on offense, but has yet to play a quality opponent. The Flames may be in for a rude awakening.
The Bulls may not get many stops, but I expect them to rely on their rushing attack to shorten the game. Four points is too many, as I think this game should be closer to a PK.
I like the Bulls at home, and I would bet them to +3.
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