College Football Week 10 Pace Report, Picks: Bet the Over in Iowa vs. Northwestern?
Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson.
Week 10 of the college football season is here.
Now that conference play is ramping up even more, we have more data on teams now that we're getting into the heart of the college football schedule. That's a great benefit, especially in the totals market.
With Week 10 rapidly approaching, here are the pace numbers for each team through Week 9:
If you're new to this piece, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute and more.
Using those metrics — along with a look at the weather and key injuries — the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Let's kick things off with three over/unders to bet in Week 10.
Iowa vs. Northwestern
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 30.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 30.5 -110o / -110u | +168 |
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Yeah, I know. But hear me out.
Even though Iowa is the worst offense in college football by both Success Rate and EPA, Northwestern has a well below-average defense. The Wildcats have now given up more than 20 points to FBS opponents in five of their seven games.
Additionally, teams have to control the line of scrimmage to stop Iowa, which is not something Northwestern has done successfully this season. The Wildcats rank 88th in terms of a PFF rush defense grade and 71st in Stuff Rate.
It's not like Iowa has been completely hopeless running the football. Leshon Williams has big-play ability and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry on the season.
Deacon Hill may be the worst quarterback in college football, but he had a much better game against Minnesota. Against Wisconsin and Purdue, Hill completed just 12 passes for 147 yards, but against Minnesota, he completed 10 passes for 110 yards.
That's a small bar to clear, but the other aspect of Hill is he puts the ball up for grabs a lot. He had five turnover-worthy plays against the Gophers, which gave them solid field position.
Northwestern quarterback Ben Bryant missed the last game against Maryland, but Brendan Sullivan sure was efficient in the win. He attempted only 23 passes but completed 15 of them for 265 yards and two touchdowns.
The Northwestern rush offense has not been explosive, but it has been effective, ranking 39th in Rushing Success Rate.
While it's almost a death sentence trying to throw on Iowa's secondary, opponents can push the Hawkeyes around up front. Iowa ranks 106th in Stuff Rate and 62nd in Offensive Line Yards.
Iowa also struggles to get teams off the field on third down, ranking 106th in Power Success Rate Allowed, which measures the percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or closer in which an offense either converted a first down or scores a touchdown.
While Iowa's offense has been the worst in the country, it's facing a defense that's 115th in Finishing Drives.
The weather at Wrigley Field actually isn't going to be too bad either, with the winds sitting around 10 mph.
This total opened at 29.5 — the lowest in the history of college football — but has been bet up to 31 at most books, which just shows that it's a little too low.
I have 35.8 points projected for this game, so as gross as it is, I like the value on over 30.5 points, which is a key number if this game ends, 17-14.
Middle Tennessee vs. New Mexico State
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
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With Diego Pavia at the helm, New Mexico has been a beautiful thing to watch on Tuesday and Wednesday nights in October.
The one thing that we know for certain is that Jerry Kill's offense is never going to be in a hurry unless it has to be. The Aggies are running a play every 29.93 seconds, which is the fifth-slowest pace in the nation.
If a team is going to face New Mexico State, it better be prepared to stop the run. The Aggies run the ball on 55.7% of their offensive plays and average 6.0 yards per carry as a team.
The reason they've been so successful is because the offensive line is dominating up front. New Mexico State ranks top-five in Offensive Line Yards and 29th in Stuff Rate Allowed, which puts it inside the top 10 in EPA/Rush.
Pavia has really improved as a passer in his second full season as the starter. He's a big-play machine who averages 9.5 yards per attempt with 14 big-time throws on the season.
The Middle Tennessee defense has struggled to stop the run, but the good news for the Blue Raiders in this matchup is they don't give up much on the ground, ranking 25th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
MTSU's pass-happy attack really hasn't been that effective this season. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato is averaging just 7.3 yards per attempt while ranking 114th in FBS in EPA to go with a 74.1 PFF passing grade on the season.
Vattiato's main problem is that he struggles when he's under pressure. The offensive line has done a good job of protecting him because he's only been pressured on about 22% of his dropbacks, but the difference between the two is pretty massive.
| Pressure | EPA/Pass | Completion % |
|---|---|---|
| Clean Pocket | 0.21 | 75.0% |
| Under Pressure | -1.68 | 55.9% |
| Pressure | Yards/Attempt | Positive EPA Play % |
|---|---|---|
| Clean Pocket | 7.6 | 49.6% |
| Under Pressure | 5.9 | 16.7% |
Data via Sports Info Solutions.
While New Mexico State is below average against the pass, the other problem for Middle Tennessee in this game is that it has struggled to score once it crosses the opponent's 40-yard line, ranking 88th in Finishing Drives.
With NMSU's ability to run the ball and grind clock, there will be a lot of long, sustained drives for the Aggies — especially considering Middle Tennessee doesn't give up explosive rushing plays.
I only have 49.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 56.5 points.
Kansas vs. Iowa State
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 54 -108o / -112u | +114 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 54 -108o / -112u | -135 |
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This should be a really fun game.
Even though Jason Bean has started the majority of the season, Kansas' offense has been awesome. The Jayhawks rank top-five in the country in both Success Rate and EPA/Play while averaging 6.7 yards per play.
The rushing attack is what makes Kansas so incredibly dangerous. The Jayhawks run the ball on 59.1% of their offensive plays and sit top-10 in Rushing Success Rate, Offensive Line Yards and EPA/Rush.
Running back Devin Neal is averaging an absurd 6.7 yards per carry and has forced 35 missed tackles already this season.
Kansas is an incredibly difficult offense to prepare for because it uses more pre-snap motion than any team in the country, which is one of the reasons why its offense has been so effective.
Iowa State has been a very average defense against the run, allowing 3.9 yards per carry while ranking 60th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. So, Kansas should be able to run the ball with success on Saturday.
The Cyclones didn't have high expectations coming into the season with Hunter Dekkers getting suspended for the year, but Rocco Becht has performed pretty well as the starting quarterback.
He's attempted over 40 passes just once this season, so Iowa State doesn't typically throw the ball at a high rate unless it has to. However, Becht does have a positive EPA on the season and is averaging a respectable 7.2 yards per attempt.
Lead back Eli Sanders has been an effective runner for the Cyclones, averaging 4.8 yards per carry with one of the worst offensive lines in college football in front of him.
Kansas can't stop anybody right now. Even though the Jayhawks come into the game with a 6-2 record, they're 117th in Success Rate Allowed, 112th in EPA/Play Allowed and 124th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
Even though Iowa State's offense has been below average, it should find a way to move the ball effectively against this Kansas defense.
The Jayhawks' stellar offense and weak defense always create a high-event contest, so I like the value on over 54 points.
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