Saturday College Football Best Bets: Odds, Picks for Tennessee vs Texas A&M, Wisconsin vs Iowa & More
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It's already Week 7 of the 2023 college football season — bizarre, right?
Well, it's time for our experts to help keep your picks on track by providing five best bets for Saturday's afternoon slate, including a selection for Iowa vs. Wisconsin.
Dive in below and formulate your college football betting card with the top odds, picks and best bets for Saturday afternoon on October 14.
Week 7 College Football Afternoon Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday afternoon's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 2 p.m. | ||
| 3 p.m. | ||
| 3:30 p.m. | ||
| 3:30 p.m. | ||
| 4 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Navy vs. Charlotte
By Brett Pund
With my best bet entry last week, I faded this Navy team, and I’m going back to the same play again with Charlotte.
This is the same Midshipmen team that failed to cover a week ago at home against North Texas. Why should they be favored on the road just a week later based on that performance?
Even with its new-look option attack, you have to be able to stop the run against the Naval Academy. Well, the 49ers have been one of the toughest squads on the ground this season.
Coming into this contest, Charlotte ranks first among Non-Power Five teams in power success defensively, while also entering top-20 in Rushing Success Rate and Rush PPA, according to collegefootballdata.com.
This is the same unit that held Florida to just 111 yards on the ground, which is well below the 153 yards-per-game average by the Gators.
Another key to this bet is the scheduling spot. With how tricky it can be to prepare for the Navy offense, Charlotte has had two weeks to game plan after coming off its bye week.
It all adds up to this being my best bet again in Week 7. If you want to sprinkle more on the moneyline, I don’t hate that idea either.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Cal vs. Utah
By Cody Goggin
Despite the absence of star quarterback Cam Rising, Utah has played well enough to be sitting at 4-1 through five games.
Without him, the Utes are running the ball at the 12th-highest rate in college football and have been doing their best Iowa impression.
Utah ranks 124th in Success Rate and 129th in Finishing Drives on the year. It’s 126th in Rushing Success Rate and 114th when passing.
The Utes have faced a tough schedule of defenses, but they still haven’t shown many signs of hope. They rank 120th in seconds per play this season, and they will look to grind out another low-scoring victory against Cal.
This hasn’t been the way that Cal has played this year. The Golden Bears’ offense has been impressive, ranking 11th in rushing PPA and 26th in Rushing Success Rate.
However, Cal has faced four opponents this year that rank outside of the top 80 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, which has propped up its numbers.
Against Auburn, potentially the only decent run defense Cal has faced to this point, this team was only able to put up an 11th-percentile Offensive Success Rate, scoring just 10 points.
Utah’s defense has been a different beast than what Cal has seen so far. Utah ranks second in Defensive Success Rate, sixth in Havoc rate and 13th in Finishing Drives.
The Utes’ run defense is fifth in Success Rate and 12th in PPA, so it should be able to contain this Cal rushing attack.
I believe that this will be one of the lower-scoring games on the slate this Saturday, as Utah will look to just grind Cal into the ground.
Texas A&M vs. Tennessee
Everybody knows Joe Milton III has a rocket arm. The problem is that he often doesn’t know how to aim that rocket. He’s completing just 63% of his passes this season and has five Turnover Worthy Plays to just six Big Time Throws.
Considering the strength of his arm, all three of his interceptions this year have been on deep passes.
Milton has really struggled when under pressure, which is something this Texas A&M front does really well. The Aggies have the 22nd-best pressure grade, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Aggies lead the country with 26 sacks this season and have a dominant front seven. They’re second in the nation at creating Havoc and should have Milton under pressure all game.
As much as we think of Tennessee as this high-flying offense, it wants to be a run-first team, and that is its strength.
But this is an incredibly difficult matchup against a Texas A&M defense that’s top-10 in the country at defending the run. The Aggies are allowing just 2.6 yards per carry and have only allowed one rushing score all year.
Max Johnson doesn’t have the same upside as Conner Weigman, but he’s a capable starting quarterback and has seven touchdowns and two interceptions this season.
He has two stud receivers in Ainias Smith and Evan Stewart to throw to and obviously has a great connection with his tight end (and brother) Jake Johnson.
The strength of schedule difference between these teams is dramatic. Texas A&M has already played Miami, Auburn, Arkansas and Alabama. The best team Tennessee played was Florida, and the Gators won by double digits.
Texas A&M will be able to shut down the Volunteers’ rushing attack and force Milton to throw the ball around, which is when he gets into trouble.
We saw what Florida was able to do against Tennessee a few weeks ago, and the Aggies are a much better version of that.
Take the points with Texas A&M.
Virginia Tech vs. Wake Forest
Things have been tough in recent years in Blacksburg, and the start of this season was no different for the Hokies.
However, after a quarterback change and shift to the run game, head coach Brent Pry seems to have found a formula that has led to two straight covers.
In the last two contests against Pittsburgh and Florida State, Virginia Tech outpaced its aerial activity with rushing attempts of 59 and 35, respectively. While Virginia Tech was able to win outright as a 'dog against Pittsburgh, it did lose against Florida State — but covered nonetheless.
With the transition to the run game, Bhayshul Tuten has solidified his spot as the lead back, with Malachi Thomas serving as his auxiliary. Tuten, a transfer from FCS North Carolina A&T, has leveraged his power running style that serves as an excellent complement to the speed of Thomas.
The Wake Forest rushing defense ranks 56th in the nation and eighth in the ACC, giving up an average of 129.0 yards per game. Last weekend against Clemson, the Demon Deacons were chewed up on the ground, giving up 207 rushing yards (4.9 yards per carry) and two touchdowns in a 17-12 loss.
The Virginia Tech run-game emphasis should help set up quarterback Kyron Drones to make plays when needed. In four starts since taking over under center, Drones has been at his best when throwing under 30 attempts per game.
As a dual-threat quarterback, he has the ability to option to the run as well and is averaging 67.5 yards per game on the ground.
Look for Virginia Tech to place a heavy emphasis on the run, calling on Drones to make plays when needed against the shaky Wake Forest run defense.
I like laying the point for a little more juice, but I think that a money line bet at -120 or better makes sense, too.
Iowa vs. Wisconsin
Sickos, mount up.
The top spot in the Big Ten West is up for grabs as Iowa heads to Camp Randall in what will surely be one of the ugliest games of the weekend.
By now, we know the story of Brian Ferentz and the Iowa offense. The Hawkeyes have the second-fewest yards per game in the country and rank 131st of 133 in passing offense with just 129.8 yards per game.
Iowa’s passing offense somehow got even worse last week, with starting quarterback Cade McNamara sidelined for the rest of the season with a torn ACL.
Wisconsin transfer Deacon Hill completed just six of 21 passes versus Purdue for 110 yards, as not a single Iowa receiver recorded a catch.
Meanwhile in Wisconsin, Phil Longo’s “Dairy Raid” offense has failed to meet expectations and is closer to curdling than being the cream that rises to the top.
The Badgers have found success with their run game and Braelon Allen, but the passing game still leaves much to be desired.
SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai is only completing 64.2% of his passes, as Wisconsin ranks just ninth in the Big Ten in passing (209.8 yards per game). Mordecai only has three passing touchdowns on the season.
While Iowa’s defense isn’t as good as it’s been in recent seasons, the Hawkeyes’ pass defense is still pretty effective, ranking 22nd in Pass Success Allowed.
A potentially one-dimensional Wisconsin offense and the mess that is the Hawkeyes’ offense is the perfect formula for a hideous, low-scoring game.
I can’t think of a better way to commemorate the final season of the Big Ten West.
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