The madness was in short supply last weekend, with all 16 top-4 seeds advancing to the second weekend for the second straight year.
So while we may not have gotten our usual fix of upsets (which might become unusual in this new college basketball landscape), that sets up eight epic Sweet 16 matchups.
Read on for my NCAA Tournament picks and Sweet 16 predictions for Thursday, March 26, and Friday, March 27.
Texas vs Purdue Pick
After its upset win over Gonzaga, Texas became the latest team to make a run to the second weekend from the First Four. If you can believe it, the field expanded to 68 teams fifteen years ago. Over that span, we have seen five previous teams get to the Sweet 16 after starting out in the First Four games:
- 2011: No. 11 seed VCU reached the Final Four
- 2013: No. 13 seed La Salle reached the Sweet 16
- 2014: No. 11 seed Tennessee reached the Sweet 16
- 2018: No. 11 seed Syracuse reached the Sweet 16
- 2021: No. 11 seed UCLA reached the Final Four
For what it's worth, those five clubs went 4-1 ATS in the Sweet 16. Can Texas become the latest to make a deep run?
It's certainly possible, but the offense will likely need to do almost all of the heavy lifting.
The Longhorns' drop coverage defense leaves a lot to be desired, ranking 81st in overall Adjusted Efficiency, per KenPom.
They are particularly vulnerable against prolific pick-and-roll offenses, ranking in the 7th percentile in efficiency vs. ball handlers (at a 99th percentile frequency) and the 24th percentile vs. rollers (at a 91st percentile frequency), per Synergy.
That spells trouble against a Braden Smith-led offense that ranks first overall in Adjusted Efficiency. The Boilermakers should get whatever they want on offense.
On the other side of the ball, Texas has a very good offense (15th Adjusted Efficiency) that can give all types of defenses fits due to their ability to create mismatches and score in isolation with pure bucket getters like Tramon Mark and Dailyn Swain.
Texas won't get much in transition against Purdue, which will also make life difficult in the post for the very underrated Matas Vokietaitis. That takes away two key avenues for points from the Texas offense.
However, the Horns can certainly still find exploitable matchups in the half-court against a Purdue defense that is far from elite.
Speaking of Vokietaitis, he draws a ton of fouls and also commits them at a high rate.
How this game is whistled could go a long way in determining how it plays out, considering Texas lives at the line (7th nationally in FTA), but Purdue rarely fouls (7th nationally), while Texas fouls a ton (299th) against a Purdue offense that doesn't get to the line frequently (335th).
Something has to give.
I don't think the shot volume battle will be too lopsided in either direction. Both are solid two-way rebounding teams, and I wouldn't expect many turnovers by either club.
As a result, this will likely come down to Purdue's more sustainable paths to consistent offense. Matt Painter's bunch is just much less likely to go through any prolonged droughts.
Now, Texas could hope for some potential 3-point regression from Purdue after it shot 22-of-38 from 3 (58%) over the first weekend, while holding its opponents to just 12-47 (25%).
An off-shooting night would certainly help, although Texas' opponents have connected on just 26% of three-point attempts so far this tournament.
It's worth mentioning that Texas certainly benefited from playing BYU without Richie Saunders and Gonzaga without Brayden Huff. The draw certainly broke its way against two teams I thought were over-seeded.
This is now a major step up in class against a veteran Purdue club that is peaking at the perfect time and has been downright dominant on neutral courts this season with a perfect 9-0 record (and ranked No. 1 in Overall Efficiency in such games).
Both coaches have enjoyed plenty of success against the spread in the NCAA Tournament, but Purdue has the superior offense and defense in this particular meeting. I'm actually pretty close to the number here, so I won't have a play from a side perspective pregame.
The over does warrant consideration, given the advantages I believe both offenses will have, even if the tempo won't be there.
Although, betting on a Purdue over when they hold a second-half lead can be torturous when they go into bleed the game out mode, so maybe a 1H over is the way to go.
Pick:Pass (Lean 1H Over)
Iowa vs Nebraska Pick
I can't wait for this conference clash between two Big 10 rivals. After both held serve on their home courts in the regular season, the rubber match will determine who moves on to the Elite 8.
Amazingly, this will mark the first Big Ten Sweet 16 matchup since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
It's also the first time Big Ten foes will face each other in the second weekend or later since Michigan State beat Wisconsin in the 2000 Final Four, which I still find hard to believe.
This is a Nebraska game, so one must mention the potential for three-point variance determining the outcome, as the Huskers own the nation's 12th-highest 3PA rate on offense and fourth-highest on defense.
In their two regular-season meetings, 104 of the total 205 field-goal attempts came from beyond the arc, which is the exact Nebraska offensive 3PA rate for the season.
In the first matchup, neither team could get going from the outside (11-of-47 combined), whereas both teams made double-digit treys in the rematch, with each right around 37%.
As a result, the first game was very low scoring (109 total points), while the second saw 140 scored in regulation. And both were super competitive, with neither having a distinct advantage from the perimeter.
The familiarity factor here is obviously extreme, especially considering both meetings came over the past month. Therefore, this will likely be decided by little adjustments — both before and during the game — assuming both teams have similar shooting performances from the outside.
And that should make for a fascinating chess match between two amazing head coaches in Ben McCollum and Fred Hoiberg.
I do expect this game to be close throughout, in which case I'd trust Bennett Stirtz (who you can almost bank on for 40 minutes of running the offense and chasing around Iowa transfer Pryce Sandfort, who was mainly held in check in both previous meetings), and McCollum.
However, I do believe Nebraska is the better overall team with the much stronger season-long metrics and overall resume.
Two other factors that could determine this game…
How dominant can Rienk Mast be on the low block, where he should have an advantage against a weak Iowa post defense? Can the Iowa role players make their open 3-point looks?
If the Hawkeyes can get a repeat 3-point shooting performance from Cooper Koch and Alvaro Folgueiras (6-of-10 combined) as they did vs. Florida, Iowa will be in a great position to win this game.
If not, Stirtz just might not be able to score enough on his own against a swarming Nebraska defense that makes it very difficult for primary pick-and-roll ball handlers.
Both offenses are going to have to find ways to get easy buckets late in the shot clock with cutting action.
I'd go to war with the Bens in a tourney setting, so I will probably bet on Iowa small since I don't love the number. I'll also definitely look to grab the Hawkeyes live if they fall behind a bit early due to unlucky 3-point shooting splits.
Although you could easily make a case that Iowa is overdue for some positive 3-point regression after beating both Florida and Clemson without any help from the perimeter.
And over the past six weeks, Iowa has run at a -7.3% 3-point delta (shooting just 31.0% to the opponent's 38.3% over those 13 games), while Nebraska has run at its normal +5% delta over that same stretch.
Given the familiarity and the NBA venue (which has never hosted an NCAA tournament game), in addition to the actual basketball uncertainty, my favorite look here is the under. I anticipate a complete grinder from start to finish.
Expect to see the shot clock approaching zero frequently when Iowa has the ball. The Hawkeyes rank 363rd in Average Possession Length and will face a Nebraska defense that ranks 359th in that same category.
Ultimately, I don't expect either team to get to the line frequently, and there shouldn't be too many second-chance looks in a game that should be played almost entirely in the half-court with almost nothing in transition, especially in a likely very low-turnover affair. And nobody shrinks a game in a tourney setting better than McCollum.
As long as we don't get crazy hot-shooting from either side in an unfamiliar neutral venue or a complete late foul fest, this one should play out similarly to the first meeting in Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
Pick: Under 133
Arkansas vs Arizona Pick
John Calipari has been a covering machine as an underdog in postseason play, while Tommy Lloyd has failed to get out of the Sweet 16 in three tries.
So, the play here is Arkansas with the points, right?
I certainly understand someone making that case, with the electric Darius Acuff capable of keeping the Hogs in this game all by himself with a 40-plus-point outburst.
However, I'm laying the points with the Wildcats, especially now that this line has fallen to -7.5. I just think this is an absolute nightmare matchup for the Razorbacks, who should get annihilated on the glass and at the rim.
In a battle of two elite rim-attacking offenses (both 80-plus percentiles in rim frequency and efficiency), it couldn't be more evident which team has the astronomical advantage in that department.
The Arkansas defense owns a sad 15th percentile rim-defense efficiency (on 78th percentile frequency). At the same time, Arizona ranks in the 99th percentile in efficiency and limits those attempts as well as any unit in the country (fifth percentile).
So, we have two teams that want to get to the rim, but one defense is dreadful in every aspect in that area, while the other is spectacular.
In more simplistic terms, Arkansas ranks 275th nationally in 2-point defense, while Arizona ranks second. Throw in a likely shot volume advantage for the Wildcats, and this could get ugly for Calipari's crew.
Additionally, Arkansas thrives in transition with their length and athleticism, ranking in the 89th percentile in transition frequency with a gaudy 99th percentile efficiency.
However, Arizona boasts an elite transition defense that ranks in the 98th percentile in efficiency.
As a result, Arkansas will have to execute in the half-court much more frequently than they are used to — and against an interior it rarely sees in the SEC outside of Florida, which beat the Hogs by 34 in their only regular season meeting.
Well, Arizona is Florida on steroids with a better backcourt.
Maybe they have another huge shooting night from the perimeter, but they are also potentially way overdue for some misfortune in that department after running at a +10% 3P delta over their past 10 games.
Meanwhile, Arizona also loves to get out in transition, where it thrives (80th percentile frequency, 93rd percentile efficiency), which could spell trouble for an Arkansas defense that ranks in the 26th percentile in transition defense efficiency.
I just don't see how the Razorbacks get many stops with a defense that struggles to defend in pick-and-roll, at the rim, and in transition.
Their biggest strength is defending the perimeter, but Arizona has one of the least 3P-reliant offenses in the country (363rd in 3PA rate).
Arkansas is undoubtedly dangerous with a backcourt that features the scoring prowess of Acuff and Maleek Thomas, especially if some of the others are hitting outside shots.
However, this is just a very poor matchup for Arkansas, which has severe defensive limitations that have reared their ugly head against elite competition this season.
Per Bart Torvik, Arkansas has gone 1-5 vs. top-15 teams, ranking 24th overall with a defense that ranks outside the top-80. Meanwhile, Arizona has gone 7-1 and ranks first in overall performance against top-15 clubs.
Lastly, I didn't even mention the strong possibility of foul trouble for an Arkansas team that really lacks depth against this physical Arizona club, which would really put them in an even more perilous position.
Ultimately, this is just a horrendous matchup for Arkansas, which has won seven straight (since getting sandblasted by Florida) in part due to a very friendly schedule of opposing defenses that rank 81st, 82nd, 108th, 46th, 32nd, 48th and 142nd.
And it's not like all of those wins have been a breeze with two coming in overtime and another pair by two possessions despite some very friendly three-point splits (+13.1% 3-point delta in March!).
Arizona just has too many answers and just too much depth in a plus-matchup.
Pick: Arizona -7.5
Illinois vs Houston Pick
In a Sweet 16 littered with amazing matchups with legendary coaches, this is the game I'm looking forward to the most, with the winner of this epic freshman guard battle between Wagler and Flemings emerging in very good shape to get to the Final Four.
I have to first mention that this game will be played in the Toyota Center in Houston. While not Houston's normal home court, it's still an advantage.
I'm personally giving Houston one point for the game location, but I could certainly see others arguing for more (or even potentially a tad less), which might ultimately shape one's opinion on where they stand on this game.
Personally, I don't have much separation between these two teams on a neutral court from a power ratings perspective. Therefore, I gladly took over a possession with the Illini after giving Houston an additional point.
Plus, I believe this is a very favorable matchup for Illinois.
For starters, the Illini are an elite offensive rebounding squad (third nationally), which is key against Houston's aggressive, trapping defense. They also rarely turn it over (ninth nationally) and have multiple ball handlers who can initiate offense in their five-out looks.
Again, two more critical factors against the heavy ball pressure of the Houston D, which forced only 47 turnovers in its six losses (7.8 per game). The Cougars went 19-0 when they forced at least 13 turnovers compared to just 11-6 when they did not.
Well, Illinois only turned the ball over more than 13 times once this entire season (in a 35-point blowout win over Southern in December).
Illinois also has a bevy of 3-point shooters on the court at all times who can take advantage of the open weak-side catch-and-shoot looks Houston will allow off offensive rebounds and teams capable of moving the ball without turning it over. Illinois fits that bill perfectly.
On the other side of the ball, Illinois excels on the defensive glass as well.
Again, that's key against a Houston offense that doesn't have the prettiest shot diet with a high rate of mid-range jumpers (10th in MRAR) that they either hope to make or grab the misses.
If you can limit the second-chance looks Houston gets (nobody plays volleyball with tap outs better), the Cougars will go through inevitable prolonged droughts, especially since they will likely get almost nothing from the charity stripe (Illinois fouls at the lowest rate in the country, while Houston's offense ranks in the bottom-15 in free-throw attempt rate).
That's notable considering Houston went 16-0 when they made more free throws than their opponent and just 14-6 when they did not.
Like Illinois, Houston rarely turns it over (fifth in the country), but the Illini rarely ever force turnovers with their passing drop coverage (dead last nationally), which neuters that Cougar strength a bit.
Houston will certainly get its mid-range looks against the Illini (355th in MRAR), but Brad Underwood's bunch can limit the second and third looks Houston usually gets vs. most opponents.
Additionally, Houston excels at limiting transition opportunities (12th percentile frequency), but Illinois rarely looks to run (3rd percentile transition frequency) and is more than comfortable playing the half-court style the Cougars usually dictate.
Also, fortunately for Illinois' vulnerable transition defense, Houston doesn't look to push often (351st in Adjusted Tempo).
This should turn into a half-court battle with few turnovers, in a game where Houston won't have a decided edge on the glass. In that case, I'll take my chances with the more prolific offense that absolutely shreds man defense.
Illinois can get a little too 3P happy against zone, but you know you'll get almost exclusively man (99.3% this year) from Kelvin Sampson, which bodes well for the Illini.
I'm confident Illinois will be in this game until the end without a truly horrific shooting performance.
After all, this team has only lost one game since the beginning of December by more than one possession in regulation (against Michigan). Four of its five other losses came in overtime, while the other one came at the buzzer vs. Nebraska.
Pick: Illinois +3.5
St. John's vs Duke Pick
I can't wait to see what pregame wrinkles and in-game adjustments Jon Scheyer and Rick Pitino have up their sleeves for this one.
I'm pretty close to market and just don't have a strong feel for either side, especially with the Duke injury uncertainty.
You'd have to imagine Patrick Ngongba (who makes a significant difference on both ends) will look a lot better after returning in the second round from injury and shaking off the rust.
However, the status of starting guard Caleb Foster, who is rumored to be close to returning to action following foot surgery earlier this month. I'd be shocked if he were fully healthy by Friday, but I'm not a doctor.
Foster's presence (at 100% health) would provide a major boost to the Blue Devils, who would benefit from his shooting prowess and ball-handling ability against the St. John's press, which I believe will be the key to the game.
After decreasing their press rate late in the season (into the Big East Tournament), Pitino has upped the usage of his patented press so far in the tournament. I expect that to continue against a Duke team that can be turnover-prone at times (especially without Foster).
Forcing turnovers and making Duke work longer and harder to get into their half-court sets is a logical path for the Johnnies to slow the Blue Devils down.
For what it's worth, Duke really struggled against the Virginia press without Foster in the ACC Championship.
In that narrow victory, the Blue Devils scored just 0.82 points per possession (which would rank around 290th nationally) on 28 press possessions against the Hoos.
If Saint John's can't force turnovers or disrupt the Duke offense with an effective press, it's hard to envision them having enough offensive firepower to keep up.
The Johnnies' half-court offense can get stuck in the mud for long stretches and is very prone to extended droughts, which isn't very encouraging against a Duke defense that ranks first in Overall Adjusted Efficiency.
The Red Storm have a rim-attacking offense (82nd percentile frequency) that makes up for some of its deficiencies by crashing the offensive glass and getting to the free-throw line.
Well, that formula could prove problematic against Duke, which ranks in the 87th percentile in rim-efficiency defense (at just a 2nd-percentile frequency!).
The Blue Devils also rank in the top-10 nationally in foul rate and defensive rebounding percentage. You have to beat this Duke defense over the top, which isn't the Johnnies' strong suit.
St. John's also loves to get out in transition, but Duke excels at limiting those opportunities (9th percentile frequency, per Synergy).
Scheyer also has the ability to go zone when needed (as he did against Siena, which flipped that game) against a Red Storm offense that doesn't profile or grade out well against zone looks.
Meanwhile, Duke will have plenty of opportunities for second-chance points (5th in OR%) against the aggressive St. John's defense (144th in OR% allowed) in the half-court, even if the shots aren't falling in an arena it already played in earlier this year against Michigan. (For what it's worth, St. John's also played here as well vs. Georgetown on New Year's Eve and shot 15-27 from three.)
Cam Boozer will find himself in a bloody battle down low, but he should get his as usual.
This basically boils down to Duke's health and its ability to handle the Saint John's pressure because the Blue Devils will have much easier paths to offense in the half-court.
If forced to bet something right now, I'd probably go with the under, as the most likely game script is Duke's half-court defense dominating the first half, allowing the Blue Devils to jump out to a lead that they hold onto in the 2H while methodically bleeding out the game.
After all, these have been two under cash cows all season with a combined 45-23 record to the low (66.2%).
Pick: Lean Under
Alabama vs Michigan Pick
Alabama came into the tourney with one of the worst shot volume profiles of any top-4 seed in the history of the tournament due to a negative turnover and rebounding differential.
The Tide will likely get crushed on the glass, and as a result, in the shot volume department, especially since they rarely force turnovers (358th), which is the one glaring weakness (165th) of this Michigan juggernaut.
That's not ideal against the Wolverines — although maybe this more physical version of Alabama without Aden Holloway can compete a little better on the boards.
It's difficult to take too much away from games against Hofstra and Texas Tech without JT Toppin, but the Tide were much more formidable in that department last weekend with a +12 rebounding advantage in each vcitory.
So, what's the path here for Alabama? It's simple, really. Go nuts from three. After all, the Tide does lead the country in 3PA rate at 53.9%, and you have to beat this Michigan defense over the top (273rd in 3PA rate).
The Tide also have to hope Michigan doesn't have a great shooting night from the perimeter since the Wolverines are basically unbeatable when that happens.
In Michigan's trio of losses this year, they shot combined 21-74 (28.4%) from beyond the arc and didn't clear 32% in any of the three.
So, can Alabama duplicate what it just did against Texas Tech when it hit 19-of-42 3s (45.2%) while holding the Red Raiders to 4-25 (16%) — one of the largest discrepancies from 3 in tourney history?
Probably not, but they will certainly get their shots up from deep, which will give them a puncher's chance.
What's probably more likely is that we see a repeat of what happened last year after Alabama set a tournament record with 25 made threes against BYU. In its next game against No. 1 seed Duke, it went just 8-32 and lost by 20.
Ultimately, I have nothing in this game, but I will look to potentially get in on Michigan live if Alabama jumps out to an early lead due to some beneficial 3P splits.
For what it's worth, both teams have played in the United Center already this season: Alabama in a win over Illinois and Michigan three times in the Big 10 tournament.
Pick: Pass (Potential Michigan Live Look)
Michigan State vs UConn Pick
Man, do we have some epic coaching battles in our nation's capital on Friday night in the East region.
I'm personally siding with the Hurley (15-1 ATS past 16 tourney games) and the Huskies in this one due to the matchup.
When handicapping Michigan State games, the first two questions I ask about the opponent are:
- Can they slow Sparty down in transition? As usual under Tom Izzo, Michigan State is elite when it can get out in transition, ranking in the 91st percentile in efficiency (and 82nd percentile in frequency), per Synergy.
- Can they limit Michigan State on the offensive glass? The Spartans rank ninth in the country in OR% and 13th in Haslametrics' SCC% (second-chance conversion percentage).
Well, UConn checks both boxes. The Huskies rank in the 91st percentile in transition defense (with a 29th percentile frequency) and are a solid enough defensive rebounding squad to compete with Sparty after missed shots.
Additionally, turnovers have plagued UConn this season (201st) at times, especially against heavy-pressure defenses. However, that's not a strength of the Michigan State defense, which ranks 297th in turnover rate.
The Huskies should have free rein to run their beautiful half-court sets against a defense that has struggled immensely to defend off the ball (2nd-percentile efficiency defending off screens, which the UConn offense utilizes at a 99th percentile frequency, per Synergy).
Now, the elephant in the room is whether the slumping UConn shooters actually make perimeter shots like you need to do against Michigan State, as Tarris Reed won't be able to carry the entire workload vs. the stout Michigan State frontcourt as he did vs. Furman. That remains to be seen.
I have no idea where Solo Ball is at mentally, but they are certainly overdue as a group — and more Jayden Ross might be a net positive. Alex Karaban also presents some major matchup problems for the Michigan State defense.
Additionally, I doubt Michigan State can maintain its recent form at the 3P line, where it has shot a ridiculous 32-69 (47%) over its past three games. Plus, it's not like the UConn defense allows a high frequency of looks from the perimeter.
If those outside shots dry up for the Spartans, I just don't see their stagnant half-court offense keeping up with UConn if the Huskies can indeed limit the second-chance looks and transition opportunities.
As long as the Huskies can avoid too detrimental of foul trouble (308th in foul rate), I think they advance to the Elite Eight.
Pick: UConn ML
Tennessee vs Iowa State Pick
I faded Iowa State last weekend against Kentucky and couldn't have been more wrong.
Kentucky simply couldn't handle the swarming Cyclone ball pressure (29% turnover rate!), which eventually took the will of the Wildcats in the second half, to be quite frank.
With that said, one must have a short-term memory in this gig, and I'm going back to the well with another Iowa State fade since I don't believe Joshua Jefferson will suit up.
And without him in the lineup, I just can't get to this number unless I assume he's basically worth nothing, which I refuse to believe for one of the best overall players in the sport.
Now, the ball pressure is a concern once again vs. a Tennessee offense that has been sloppy with the rock this season, ranking 225th in turnover rate. Ja'Kobi Gillespie — arguably the most underrated point guard in the country — has to stay out of foul trouble at all costs.
If he has to exit the game for any extended period, it could spell disaster for the Vols' offense.
However, if he can stay on the floor, I believe he and Boswell can do enough not to get completely overwhelmed by the Iowa State trapping.
And if so, Tennessee will simply just need to get shots up in the air in order to crash the offensive glass with reckless abandon, where it ranks No. 1 in the nation.
Iowa State's aggressive defense can leave it exposed to second-chance opportunities from elite offensive rebounding teams, especially if it has to go another game without its best defensive rebounder in Jefferson.
Once again, this is simply a numbers play on a game that I believe should be much closer to a PK than 5 if Jefferson is indeed out, which is my belief.
Iowa State won't go without a fight if that's the case, but I think Rick Barnes will have a very good chance late in this game to make his third straight Elite 8.
While the potential giveaways are a concern, it does give me confidence that the Vols beat Houston earlier this season on a neutral court with single-digit turnovers.
Pick: Tennessee +4.5
