There's nothing like the Feast Week preseason college basketball tournaments, but before we get to Thanksgiving week, the Gavitt Games gives us an appetizer.
Tanner McGrath has a college basketball preview and picks for the Gavitt Games, including a game-by-game breakdown.
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Monday, Nov. 13
Everyone seems very convinced that Michigan is “back” following blowout wins over UNC Asheville and Youngstown State.
I don’t entirely disagree. The Wolverines obliterated two mid-major teams I’m extremely high on.
In the post-Hunter Dickinson era in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines needed Dug McDaniel to become an adept point guard and Tennessee transfer Olivier Nkamhoua to realize his full potential.
Through two games, McDaniel has 12 assists to four turnovers and Nkamhoua has 42 points on 78% shooting.
Pretty good!
But am I convinced?
Honestly, not even a little bit.
The pure talent level on this roster is underwhelming.
Unless Jaelin Llewellyn returns from injury ASAP, I’m not that high on McDaniel at point guard. He finished last year with a 99.6 ORtg, even if his 21.4% assist rate was relatively high.
The Wolverines are desperately missing slashers on the wing. Juwan Howard’s best teams featured guys like Isaiah Livers and Franz Wagner. I can’t imagine he’s comfortable with Terrance Williams II shouldering that load – the 6-foot-7 senior scored six points per game last season on 38.5% / 25% / 75% shooting splits.
I love the frontcourt combination of Nkamhoua and Tarris Reed Jr., but that duo is entirely unproven, except against UNC Asheville and Youngstown State.
Meanwhile, Rick Pitino’s Red Storm are undergoing a total rebuild, but I love the talent on this squad.
Daniss Jenkins follows Pitino from Iona and is an outstanding pure point guard (28% assist rate, 14% turnover rate last year). Jordan Dingle transfers in from Penn as one of the best pure scorers in college ball (23.5 PPG last year). Returning center Joel Soriano is the type of big man who can take over a ball game, and he averaged 15/12 last season.
Pitino-led teams are usually defensive-minded, with the long-time head coach deploying a split man-zone scheme that often presses and always runs shooters off the 3-point line.
Pitino has the roster to deploy this scheme.
So, I heavily lean St. John’s here.
But we just don’t know enough about these teams to accurately handicap them. I’ll almost certainly stay away.
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Purdue is again KenPom’s top overall team after blowing out two low-major squads to start the year. Zach Edey is dominating as usual (17/10 on 71% shooting), but Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones has been a pleasant surprise starting at the 2 (11/4/3 on 67% shooting).
We can’t really conclude anything from the first two games, so I’ll go with my preseason Purdue analysis.
Purdue returns everyone from last year, so it’s fair to expect the young guards to improve.
However, the key to beating Purdue last year was two-fold.
On offense, you exploited Purdue’s lackadaisical, inexperienced ball-screen defense with solid pick-and-roll sets and dribble penetration. And if you got Edey defending a guard out in space, it was barbecue chicken.
Tyson Walker exposed that weakness in a mid-January game against Purdue last season, dropping 30 points.
On defense, you dedicated all your resources towards Edey, and forced the Edeyettes to beat you from the perimeter. And if you featured a solid ball-pressure defense, you could also take advantage of the young guards.
Fairleigh Dickinson did that in the now-infamous NCAA tournament first round. Edey scored 21, but the Edeyettes shot 5-for-26 from deep and turned the ball over 16 times.
Can Xavier do either of these things?
Sean Miller’s 2022-23 Musketeers featured a devastating dribble-drive ball-screen offense, but his top two guards are gone (Souley Boum and Colby Jones).
I really like Western Kentucky transfer Dayvion McKnight, who’s expected to shoulder the ball-handling duties. But can he replicate Boum’s impossibly good season? And even if he could, will it take him a few weeks or months to build continuity within this offense?
Last year’s Musketeers had a dreadful interior defense, ranking in the first percentile of D-I teams in post-up PPP allowed (1.05) and the 27th percentile in paint points per game allowed (32.8).
Now, Jack Nunge departed in the past offseason and Zach Freemantle is expected to miss a significant portion of this season. Even if Miller dedicated all his resources to stopping Edey, would that be enough?
Plus, Miller doesn’t love pressuring opposing ball handlers, with last year’s Musketeers ranking in the second percentile of press defense usage and 297th in defensive turnover rate.
Ultimately, Xavier is dealing with loads of roster turnover and injuries, as four double-digit scorers departed in the offseason and a group of 10 transfers/freshmen are set to replace them.
I heavily rely on returning production when handicapping early-season basketball. Generally, the team with more continuity will beat the team with less in November and December.
Well, it’s clear which team returns more production. But even if Xavier had the horses, I’m not sure the Musketeers match up well with Purdue.
I heavily lean towards betting on Purdue here, depending on the number.
Tuesday, Nov. 14
Who’s Wisconsin is this?
105 points in the opener? 70 against Tennessee? The Badgers are running at a top-50 pace nationally through two games after ranking sub-330th in that metric in seven of eight seasons under Greg Gard.
I highly doubt this is sustainable.
This is the same Wisconsin team from last year. Nine of the Badgers’ top 10 scorers from last season are back, including all five starters. The Badgers rank fourth nationally in returning minutes. The only “key” departure was Jordan Davis, who averaged five points per game last season.
So, I expect to see the Badgers turn back into the team they've always been under Gard – a slow-paced, defensive-minded team.
Conversely, projecting what we’ll get from Providence is almost impossible.
While superstar forward Bryce Hopkins is back, Ed Cooley is replaced by former George Mason coach Kim English – the 34-year-old is the youngest high-major coach in college basketball. Ed Croswell, Noah Locke and Jared Bynum are replaced by George Mason transfers, Josh Oduro and Ticket Gaines.
I have two takeaways from all this.
First, I heavily lean Wisconsin in this game. As mentioned, I almost always bet teams with more continuity over teams with less early in the season.
Second, I love the Under here. Wisconsin’s pace is bound to regress, and Providence’s fresh-faced team could look shaky in the early going, especially against a hard-nosed Big Ten basketball team.
KenPom projects this total above 150. I highly doubt these two will piece together 150 points between them.
Illinois could be really good.
Terrence Shannon Jr. is among the nation’s best players. Coleman Hawkins is among the nation’s most versatile big men (although he shot poorly from deep last year). I love the two transfers Brad Underwood brought in, Oregon’s Quincy Guerrier and Southern Illinois’ Marcus Domask.
But I think Underwood is still working through his rotations.
Last season, Illinois tried Skyy Moore at point guard before he left the program. Then the Illini tried a bit of Jayden Epps at the 1.
Ultimately, the best decision was letting Shannon run the show, as he became the main ball-screen facilitator.
Now Underwood wants to try running with Ty Rodgers at the 1.
Rodgers played 17 minutes per game last season and averaged 3.3 points per game. He was mainly used as a spark plug off the bench, as he crashed the glass hard and played tough defense.
He’s the team’s best athlete, but is he really the answer at point guard? Not only has he never played point, but he has no perimeter shot, which can’t help an Illinois team that struggled from deep last year (30.8%, 335th nationally).
Because of these substantial question marks, I lean heavily towards Marquette.
The Golden Eagles are a fully-formed basketball team featuring the nation’s most unstoppable pick-and-roll duo, Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro. They’re working on replacing Olivier-Maxence Prosper, but sixth-man David Joplin should slide seamlessly into his 4 spot.
Marquette doesn’t have any question marks. Instead, the Golden Eagles return substantial production from a team that claimed the Big East regular season and conference championship titles.
Also, KenPom projects Marquette as a short road underdog. If you’re unaware, head coach Shaka Smart is a wizard in those situations, covering the number 65% of the time and generating a 26% ROI for bettors.
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Creighton has a few pieces to replace from last year’s team, but I feel good about what the Bluejays have.
Ryan Nembhard was an excellent point guard, but incoming transfer Steven Ashworth was among the nation’s best floor leaders at Utah State.
I could talk all day about Ashworth. He ranked in the 97th percentile of D-I players in ball-screen PPP (1.14). He averaged 16 points and five assists per game while shooting 43% from 3 and posting a measly 12% turnover rate.
It’ll be tough to replace slasher Arthur Kaluma, but more shots for Baylor Scheierman is never a bad thing – the guy is a firecracker from deep.
Also, the frontcourt combo of Mason Miller and Ryan Kalkbrenner remains intact.
It’s hard not to love this Creighton team.
Conversely, I'm still trying to figure out what to make of Iowa.
Is Fran McCaffery’s system really plug-and-play? Can the Hawkeyes continue to score like crazy without Luka Garza or a Murray brother leading the charge?
The latter question is particularly important. Over the past half-decade, Iowa has always had a go-to guy.
I’m unsure who the go-to guy is on this roster.
Could it be Valpo transfer Ben Krikke? He averaged 19 points per game last season.
I doubt it’ll be one of the returning players. I’m not especially high on Tony Perkins, Patrick McCaffery or Payton Sandfort.
We know one thing about Iowa: the defense will be trash again. The defense is always trash in Iowa City. Aside from a solid defensive year in 2022 – based mainly on turnovers – the Hawkeyes have ranked among the bottom-four Big Ten teams in defensive efficiency every year since 2018.
Creighton is a national title contender, while Iowa is a question mark. I lean Creighton in this game, but I suspect the spread will be too large to bet, and the high-variance nature of Iowa games will keep me away from this one.
Wednesday, Nov. 15
While this won’t be the best or most exciting matchup of the Gavitt Games, it’s the most fascinating.
Cooley takes over at Georgetown with an entirely new roster that he pieced together in a mad dash after ditching Providence. There’s talent on the roster – including the aforementioned Epps at point guard – but the Hoyas lack size and depth.
Cooley is a stud coach who will get Georgetown back on track following the disastrous Pat Ewing era. But how long will that take?
Will the Hoyas be fully prepared for a non-con Gavitt Games matchup in his debut season?
Meanwhile, Steve Pikiell and the Scarlet Knights are dealing with some roster turnover, as Cam Spencer, Caleb McConnell and Paul Mulcahy moved on in the offseason.
However, I love that Pikiell brought in UMass transfer Noah Fernandes. He’s a veteran D-I point guard who knows how to run a competent college basketball offense. It’s also a plus that he’s lights out from 3 (career 37.4% from deep).
Fernandes and returning center Cliff Omoruyi create a deadly Big Ten inside-out duo.
At times, Omoryui looked like the Big Ten’s best player last season. He finished the year as Rutgers’ leading scorer (13.2 PPG), rebounder (9.6 RPG) and shot-blocker (2.1 BPG).
Omoryui is solid on the offensive end, but his value comes mainly on the defensive end. He’s among the nation’s best defensive big men and rim protectors, ranking above the 90th percentile of D-I players in post-up PPP allowed (.67) and block rate (9%) last year.
Pair Omoruyi with swingman forward Mawot Mag, and Pikiell has two of the Big Ten’s best defenders on his front line.
Rutgers is the better team than Georgetown, but the Scarlet Knights are also slower-paced and defensive-minded. That makes it really hard to cover a double-digit spread.
I lean towards Rutgers here, but I will likely stay away, primarily because of the game script.
Friday, Nov. 17
This game is funny because it goes against my early-season college basketball hypothesis.
Sparty returns everybody except Joey Hauser from last year’s Sweet 16 team. Tom Izzo’s squad was a top-five preseason team.
Yet, the experienced, stellar group dropped its season opener to James Madison.
Meanwhile, Thad Matta enters his second year at Butler with four new starters, one season after going 6-14 in Big East play.
His Bulldogs have jumped 22 spots in KenPom after 40-point wins over Eastern Michigan and Southeast Missouri State.
I won’t lie, Butler has dudes.
Chief among them is St. John’s transfer Posh Alexander. He’s one of the toughest guards in the nation. He has a Big East DPOY award to his name, averaging over two steals per game for his career. He's also a career 11 points per game guy.
Also, watch out for DJ Davis and Jahmyl Telfort, two guys that averaged double-digits scoring in the mid-majors last season (Davis for UC Irvine, Telfort for Northeastern).
That said, do we really think this fresh-faced group of former mid-major players can hang with Izzo, Walker and A.J. Hoggard?
I generally try to back Butler when it’s catching a lot of points, as Matta-led teams are slow-paced and tough.
But I’m not sure I can get beyond the Bulldogs here. I’ll pass.
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I lied.
This is 100% the most fascinating matchup of the Gavitt Games.
I'm extremely high on both teams.
Maryland is extremely versatile, and Kevin Willard brings back three starters to develop in his second season at the helm.
Point guard Jahmir Young, one of the Big Ten’s best shot creators, is back. Versatile big man Donta Scott and potential All-Big Ten center Julian Reese also returned.
But the key for the Terps this season is the rookies.
Freshman Jamie Kaiser Jr. is, supposedly, already the best shooter on the team. Meanwhile, DeShawn Harris-Smith, a four-star recruit out of Virginia, is an old-school Big East slashing guard who can get to the basket and stop his opponent from getting to the basket.
Last season, Maryland didn’t have shooters, so opposing defenses collapsed on Young, Scott and Reese. And when Young couldn’t create, the offense stalled.
However, if defenses have to respect Kaiser as a shooter, that’ll open up the interior for Maryland’s three returning starters. And it’ll open up lanes for the uber-talented Harris-Smith to score.
Maryland could become very dangerous in that scenario.
Meanwhile, I love how Kyle Neptune built his starting five this season.
Returning starters Justin Moore and Eric Dixon provide a solid floor as an inside-out duo.
Washington State transfer TJ Bamba is an awesome, versatile two-way guard with the perfect mix of off-the-dribble shot creation and spot-up shooting ability for Villanova’s offense.
Richmond transfer Tyler Burton dominated the A-10 last year for 19/7 with two “stocks” per game. He’s an incredible talent.
Finally, Maryland transfer Hakim Hart brings defensive intensity and good enough spot-up stats (1.00 PPP, 70th percentile) to stay on the court for 30 minutes a night. Plus, he’s a Philly native potentially looking to exact revenge on his former program.
I lean towards Maryland here for two reasons.
First, I love both of these squads and I believe the two are within one possession of each other, so I’m happy to grab four or more with the Terps.
Second, Willard’s defensive scheme is very aggressive. The Terps press at an extremely high rate (25% of the time last year, 95th percentile) and run opponents off the 3-point line as much as possible (32% 3-point rate allowed, 30th nationally).
It’s a good scheme to neutralize Villanova’s perimeter-based offense – the Wildcats will run perimeter ball screens repeatedly until they find an open shooter, ranking seventh in 3-point rate last season (47.8%).
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