Kansas vs. Texas Tech Odds & Betting Predictions - February 3, 2026

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I’m ready to fade Kansas after their five game winning streak, and this feels like the spot. Their win streak was definitely impressive, but the advanced metrics remain skeptical of the Jayhawks. Despite winning five straight games, they rank just 14th overall during the month of January. Interestingly enough, Texas Tech ranks four spots higher over that stretch. What this tells us is that despite the strong results, the efficiency has not been that of an elite team. Shot Quality is especially low on this Kansas team. Despite being ranked as the 11th best team in the AP Poll, Shot Quality has them 50th overall, with the 38th best offense and the 95th best defense. Their data really expects continued regression from the Kansas defense. Kansas is currently a 16-5 team, but Shot Quality projects them as a very concerning 10-11 team. While that may be a stretch, I do see real flaws in their play style, especially when Darryn Peterson has to sit. Peterson is such an interesting case. He’s potentially the most pure scorer in the country, but he simply can’t stay on the court. He continues to battle cramps and dehydration and often has to take himself out of games. When he’s off the floor, the offense falls on Bidunga and Council. While both are solid players, they don’t have the ability to take over a game the way Peterson does. Another major concern for Kansas is how poorly they’ve played on the road. Sure, they’ve won their last two road games, but those came against teams outside the top 70 on KenPom. Overall, Kansas is just 3-3 on the road and owns a brutal 335th away from home grade by Hasla Metrics. Playing on the road is critical in college basketball, and Kansas has clearly shown their game does not translate away from Allen Fieldhouse. Schematically, I also love this spot for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are absolutely lethal from three, shooting an absurd 41.9% from deep during Big 12 play. This offense is dangerous at every level, which is why Shot Quality ranks them first in the country in adjusted offensive shot quality. Not only do they shoot the three well, but they also take them at the 13th highest rate in the nation and the highest rate in the Big 12. This team is the college basketball equivalent of the 2017 Warriors. That’s a major problem for Kansas, considering their defense allows three point attempts at the highest rate in the conference. While Kansas defended the three well in non conference play, that has clearly regressed in Big 12 action. They currently rank 10th in the conference in three point percentage allowed. The Kansas defense has taken a serious step back from its early season form, making this a dream matchup for the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is coming off a loss to UCF, but that was a perfect spot for Central Florida. We were actually on UCF in that game, but now I want to buy low on the Red Raiders. UCF won by dominating the offensive glass and creating second chance points, something Kansas simply doesn’t do well. The Jayhawks rank just 247th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. Texas Tech was also clearly looking ahead to this matchup. This is the game they’ve had circled. The Red Raiders have been elite at home, posting an 11-0 home record. Our model has Texas Tech winning 77.19 to 70.59, which implies a fair spread of 6.60. Kansas guard Elmarko Jackson is also questionable for this game. This would be a significant hit to their depth, especially if Peterson has to exit again with his nightly cramps. Give me the Red Raiders at home.