Pelicans vs. Nuggets Prediction, Picks for Friday, Jan. 12
Here's everything you need to know about Pelicans vs. Nuggets on Friday, Jan. 12 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The New Orleans Pelicans face the defending champion Denver Nuggets in a marquee matchup between two of the hottest teams of the past two weeks.
This would be appointment television if not for the fact that almost all of the Pelicans' starting lineup is questionable. Brandon Ingram (Achilles), Zion Williamson (quadriceps), Trey Murphy III (knee) and CJ McCollum (ankle) are all in danger of missing Friday night’s contest.
Let's get to our Pelicans vs. Nuggets prediction and pick.
Pelicans vs. Nuggets Prediction
Pick: Jonas Valančiūnas Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds
Pelicans Betting Outlook
If New Orleans ends up resting its players, it would be a disappointing outcome for such a highly anticipated game. The Pelicans have been No. 1 in nearly every meaningful category over the past two weeks, per Cleaning the Glass. They’re first in point differential (+19.8), spread differential (+12.3) and defensive rating (106.5), and second in offensive Rating (126.4).
The Pelicans' starting unit has been the best in the league the past two weeks, sporting a +13.4 Net Rating. They’ll be a different team without their full squad, but the Pelicans are also one of the deepest teams in the league. Their bench unit has also ranked first in Net Rating over that same period (+8.1).
One player who has been a massive contributor to the Pelicans' success — and who will certainly play tomorrow barring a last-minute scratch — is Jonas Valančiūnas, who is averaging 12.8 points and 10.2 rebounds in 2024.
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Nuggets Betting Outlook
As great as the Pelicans have played of late, the Nuggets haven’t been far behind them. They rank seventh in point differential (+8.8) and sixth in offensive rating (125.6), although they’re coming off some disappointing losses. They lost to the Magic at home last Friday and were blown out by the Jazz on Wednesday.
Before the injury report for New Orleans, I had this spot circled as a bounce-back spot for Denver coming off the Utah loss, but with so much uncertainty, the value isn’t as clear. I’ll be monitoring how the injuries shake out, but can’t back the Nuggets at the current number without knowing who’s in for New Orleans.
After Friday’s game against the Pelicans, the Nuggets face the Pacers (without Tyrese Haliburton) before road games against the 76ers, Celtics, Wizards, Pacers and Knicks, only to come home and face the 76ers and Bucks before another road game against the Thunder. The Nuggets need this game at home.
Pelicans vs. Nuggets Picks, Odds
| Pelicans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -114 | 230.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -106 | 230.5 -110o / -110u | -230 |
With the Pelicans' injury report in flux, let’s go for a play that isn’t tied to whatever iteration of ins and outs we get from the New Orleans roster. I’ll take Valančiūnas over 20.5 points plus rebounds. The Nuggets give up the 23rd most shots at the rim (35.3%) and rank just 20th in rebound percentage (49%).
In many ways, this play is injury-proof. Valančiūnas has gone over this line in six of the last 10 games without Williamson and seven of the last 10 without Ingram, McCollum and Murphy III individually. But even if they all play, he’s averaging 21.7 points plus rebounds and has cleared this line in eight of the last 10 games and in 11 of the last 15 against the Nuggets.
Follow in the Action Network app for how (or if) I play the Nuggets side in this matchup as injury news comes out.
Pick: Jonas Valančiūnas Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds
