Yesterday was an awesome day here at player prop headquarters. We went 3-0 on Saturday, cashing Zion Williamson's points under, CJ McCollum's assist over, and Bogdan Bogdanovic's points over.
Today's NBA slate has three times the action, though. So let's try and find some more value and dive into my top three NBA player props for Sunday, March 31 featuring picks for Nikola Jokic, Steph Curry and Josh Giddey.
NBA Player Props for Sunday, March 31
We are similar situation in the Cleveland vs. Denver game as explained below in Warriors vs. Spurs. The game total is on the rise, so I am inclined to find some correlated over props.
Jamal Murray has already been ruled out for this game, and the statistical output of Jokic both at home, and in games without Murray show an increase in assist.
That is likely because Murray and Jokic run such a dominant two-man game where Jokic gets the catch to score often.
Here he will lead the creation surrounded by shooters. Not overthinking this one, give me Joker's over to drop some dimes.
Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 7.5 Assists (-145)
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In the recent stretch since the NBA All Star Break, NBA totals have been cashing unders at a ridiculous rate and game totals have been moving down in odds pricing from open to close.
FanDuel seems to be the leader in the clubhouse of books pricing in the under, and have consistently been one point below the market. If FanDuel is fully committed to the under trend, it should be very noteworthy when they decide to price a game higher than the rest of the market.
That is happening here, as most sites have this total at 226.5, but FanDuel has this priced at 227.5 or 228. I think sites are going to move this north and we should expect pace and scoring in tonight's Warriors vs. Spurs game.
If we expect more scoring than the market consensus, and we factor in that the Spurs have one of the top tier rim protectors the league, the Warriors are going to be reliant on Steph to lead the offense and open spacing with his shooting.
It would not surprise me to see Curry take 12-plus three-point attempts, and he is shifty near the rim to draw some fouls.
At -130 juice on bet365, this is a strong play correlated to the market movement.
Pick: Steph Curry Over 25.5 Points (-130)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has already been downgraded from questionable to doubtful for the Sunday clash between the Thunder and Knicks.
In the last four games, including a few without SGA, Giddey has been looking to drive and score. He is also getting increased minutes and usage, as the Gordon Hayward experiment in OKC seems to not be working well.
Giddey is both shooting well and a lead creator without SGA, he also has size at the guard position to use against Brunson or DiVincenzo, so look for Giddey to stay aggressive getting to the rim.
Pick: Josh Giddey Over 13.5 Points (-115)
