The second round of the NBA Playoffs continues today with a pair of crucial Game 3s. The Boston Celtics will try to regain home-court advantage by taking one in Cleveland, while a young Oklahoma City team looks to bounce back from losing Game 2 at home to the Mavericks.
Both of these games are priced really well in terms of the spreads and totals, but there are matchup and prop angles worth exploring. In both Game 2s I noticed a reliance on 3-point shooting as variance became the deciding factor in both games. With all of these coaches emphasizing the long ball, I think it is worth digging into the 3-point market to find betting edges.
So, let's get into my NBA player props picks today and go over my best prop bets.
NBA Player Props for Saturday, May 11
I think this line holds value for two main reasons. For one, I'm simply fading the recent hot hand. Derrick White has been "white-hot" throughout the playoffs. Prior to a weak showing for Boston in Game 2, White had made 20-of-36 3s over his past four games. The volume and efficiency both were at season highs, and that is unlikely to last in a game with movement toward the under.
I also recall in Round 1, when the Celtics lost Game 2 to the Heat, the Game 3 defensive plan was clearly to run the other team off the 3-point line and generate easy looks near the rim. If White is going to be relied upon for strong closeouts and is attacking the rim more, in a game with under movement, it's an easy grab to fade White's inflated line.
I'm going right back to the well after hitting this in Game 2, but feel this is a play if — and only if — Jarrett Allen is activated. Evan Mobley took two quick 3s in the first quarter, made one and cruised to an easy Game 2 cash. If Allen is active, I expect Mobley to get looks from deep, and at +170, it's worth it to bet into one falling. Mobley is also a young player coming off his best playoff game and returning home to a crowd that should be roaring him on. If confidence is high, all we need is one!
Oklahoma City is the early sharp side and my read is that a lot of that has to do with Dallas' front-court depth, which continues to diminish. Maxi Kleber is out for the rest of the season and now Daniel Gafford has a hurt hand, which he fought through in Game 2.
Luka Doncic has a hobbled knee and ankle, and even Derrick Jones Jr. took a hard fall and momentarily grabbed his leg. With these games moving toward the over, I'm looking to back scoring and spacing. Oklahoma City can exploit Dallas on the road by spacing it out and hitting shots.
Chet Holmgren will be a focal point of Oklahoma City's attack. Holmgren has attempted a consistent volume of 3s throughout the playoffs, including a playoff-high seven attempts in a road game against New Orleans. Hopefully Holmgren is draining his shot.
There has been an overreaction to the 3s made by Dallas in Game 2. The Mavericks haven't shot well in the playoffs, so lets fade them and back one of the Thunder's best shooters.
