The last day of the NBA season is here, and with it comes an unprecedented amount of uncertainty for the playoffs. Of the 20 postseason spots (including Play-In Tournament spots), only five are locked in.
So with that in mind, here's a look at each of the games, who has what motivation, and how that's historically gone to determine how to bet the NBA's final regular season slate this Sunday.
How To Bet The NBA's Final Regular Season Slate
The Knicks have a lot to gain here which is why they're such heavy favorites. Chicago is locked into the 9th seed, they'll play Atlanta this week for a chance at 8th. They have nothing to gain here. The Knicks, on the other hand, can clinch the three seed with a win or the two-seed with a win and a Bucks loss.
One problem: if the Knicks want to avoid the Philadelphia 76ers, they need to keep an eye on the other games. An Orlando loss coupled with a Pacers win and a Sixers win puts the Sixers into the sixth seed. But there's nowhere really for the Knicks to go is the problem.
The Cavaliers have listed Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert as out and Darius Garland as doubtful; it appears the Cavs are just relinquishing the fight and accepting the fourth seed.
So if the Knicks can't move down (which they can't if the Cavaliers lose), then the Knicks might as well win this game.
Notably, the Bulls' injury report is clean; they're going to play guys but for how long is a mystery. I would not mess with this one.
The Heat have to try and win this to try and get into the 7th seed (or higher). There's actually a path for the Heat to jump from 8th to 5th.
It requires the Sixers and Pacers to lose winnable games along with the Magic losing to Milwaukee, but it is possible.
The problem might be if the Sixers are way ahead or if the Magic are way up on Milwaukee, there's no point. Then the Heat could pull starters second half.
The Raptors can't move up or down in the lottery; they're stuck where they're at. A first-half play (if the lines come available) on Miami is probably the play.
This line is a little baffling. Giannis Antetokounmpo is out but Damian Lillard is probable. It looks like the rest of the Bucks will go here as they look to secure the 2-seed. But even with the Magic being one of the best ATS teams this season and with even more motivation, this line is fishy.
The Magic need to win this game. If they lose, a number of bad things can happen. They will almost definitely fall to at least the 7th and could slip to the 8th if Miami wins. (Miami has season series tiebreaker and as a result wins all three-way ties with Orlando because you have to settle division winner first.)
It's also hard to beat a team twice in a week.
But the concern has to be that if Cleveland isn't going to try and get the 2-seed, the Knicks might not either, and then Milwaukee has nothing to play for while the Magic have everything. But I think there's a small amount of value in taking Milwaukee here with a chance to increase the chances that they face this Magic team in the first round.
Wouldn't you rather play Orlando than the Sixers?
Indiana has every reason and opportunity to boat race the Hawks here. Indiana clinches a playoff spot with a win; they can get as high as fifth.
The Hawks are locked into the 10th spot. Their injury report is clean but they have nothing to play for and Indiana is at home in a season finale with a chance to win a playoff spot.
The Pacers are 6-2 this season SU and ATS as a double digit favorite, and teams in Game 82 favored by more than 14.5 points are 9-5 ATs since 2003.
Same deal here. The Nets are eliminated, nothing to play for. The Sixers are looking to clinch a playoff spot. They need a loss by the Pacers to get it done, though, and the Pacers might be up big time.
The Magic game doesn't mean much; they're already tied. As long as they win and the Pacers lose, the Sixers get a playoff spot, be it 5 or 6. However, if the Pacers are up big time, the Sixers might pull the plug.
Still, though, there are some small percentage-chance outcomes that make it worth it for the Sixers to keep the hammer down. This is also a great matchup for Joel Embiid and playing his props is not a bad idea for the first half only.
The books certainly think the Cavs are going to try and win this game; the injury report says otherwise. No Donovan Mitchell, no Caris LeVert, Darius Garland doubtful. The Cavs are conceding the 4-seed.
Now, certainly, the Cavs have enough defense and shooting to beat the Hornets anyway. But this line reflects an intention to win that the injury report says otherwise.
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The most hilarious number on the board today. These are two Finals contenders, and the Mavericks are getting 20 points.
Why? Because the Mavericks can't move up or down. They are locked into the 4-seed. But if the Thunder win, the Denver Nuggets can finish in first place, which means the Mavericks won't play Denver until the conference finals if they do meet up.
If OKC wins, they can move up to first or second, depending on what Denver does.
I know it's 20 points, but it's probably worth laying it based on historical trends and the fact that this isn't a "motivated team vs. a team playing carefree." It's a "motivated team vs. a team that doesn't want to win."
Big game for both teams. The Wolves can move up to 1st or 2nd with a win. The Suns need a win and a Pelicans loss to move up into sixth and avoid the play-in. Given that the Pelicans are playing the Lakers, the Suns won't have a great feel for how they should approach this, so they'll just try and win. If the Wolves lose and the Nugggets win and the Thunder win, the Wolves finish third.
The Suns are 2-0 SU and ATS on the season series matchup, but in Minnesota with these stakes is different. You also just don't know which Suns team you're going to get on any given night. Even the stakes in this one don't guarantee a great effort. This is a stay away and watch the game for enjoyment.
Even in Game 82, the Warriors can't be treated as powerhouses. Everyone else in the West either gets a competitive game or are laying 15 points or more. But the Warriors just have a normal spread up.
That said, Steve Kerr said it's entirely possible they rest players. Will that matter? The Jazz can't move up in the lottery odds but they can get caught.
I lean towards the Jazz here. Teams favored at home by less than 9 points are around 53% ATS which isn't good enough to back.
Golden State is looking for a win and a Kings loss to move to 9th or Kings and Lakers losses to 8th.
This feels steep. The Kings just aren't very good right now.
Not only are they injury-ridden without Kevin Huerter or Malik Monk, but they also have the vibe of a team that knows this isn't their year. They need a win and a Lakers loss to vault back into 8th with a chance at 7th.
The Blazers cannot move down; they have reason to play the young guys and keep getting better.
Um.. what?
Yes, 13 players are out for Memphis. But the injury report lists Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as questionable.
The Nuggets are signaling that they're not going to go for a win with very small chances they move up to 2nd or 1st. What's weird is that Wolves game is absolutely losable for Minnesota and then Denver gets homecourt in the second round at worst with a win.
Definitely play the full-game. The Nuggets may play starters just in case in the first half but will have a sense if there's any real reason for them to push. They also might just be happy in the 3-6 vs. the Pelicans if the Pels are up early.
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The big one.
Pelicans win and they get the sixth seed. Lakers win and they get the 8th seed, two shots at a playoff spot and homecourt in the second matchup.
The Pelicans have struggled with this Lakers team going 2-1 this year with the first matchup in Vegas for the In-Season Tournament genuinely being pretty sad.
If the Kings were to be down big to the Blazers and the Warriors down to Utah, the Lakers could take their foot off the pedal. That won't happen, but it's something to keep in mind.
The Lakers can potentially sneak into a 7th-seed with a first-round matchup vs. OKC depending on how the bracket shakes out.
This one should be great, but doesn't have a ton of betting value.
