There are three NBA player props I'm eyeing for today's slate of games on Friday, Jan. 5.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA. However, they began their road trip with a loss in Atlanta on Wednesday night. Tonight, they will be in Brooklyn taking on a Nets team that has lost nine of their last 11 games. Jalen Williams will look to help the Thunder even up their road trip.
The Trail Blazers also took a loss on Wednesday, 126-97 to the Mavericks. They are back in Dallas tonight and will looking to avoid the quick sweep. Anfernee Simons will look to help them be more competitive tonight.
The Raptors are 2-0 since last Saturday’s trade. They will continue their road trip in Sacramento tonight and I will be back one of their new acquisitions, Immanuel Quickley.
Let's dig in.
NBA Player Props Today
At this point, it is more surprising when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander does not score 30 points than when he actually does it. However, Oklahoma City is averaging 122 points and nearly 27 assists per game, so there is plenty to go around. The second-leading scorer on Oklahoma City is Jalen Williams.
The second-year forward is averaging 18 points per game, which he has bumped to 19.7 over his past 10 games. He has scored 17 points in six of his last 10 games and was hooked on 16 in the other one. In five of the games he went over this line, Williams scored 20 points or more. His long-range marksmanship has helped.
Williams has knocked down at least one 3 in nine of his past 10 games and at least two 3s in five of them. Tonight, he faces a Nets team that is 29th in 3s allowed per game (14.2) and 3-point percentage defense (38.5%). In the last two weeks, Bojan Bogdanovic, Khris Middleton, Corey Kispert, Deni Avdija, Luguentz Dort and Herbert Jones have gone over points against the Nets.
Williams also has scored 23 and 17 points in his last two games against the Nets. I like his chances of hitting 17 for the third-straight game against them tonight.
Pick: Jalen Williams Over 16.5 Points (-120 at DraftKings)
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Prior to Wednesday's game, I saw Anfernee Simons' line at 21.5 points. I did not pull the trigger because he was on a minutes restriction. It ended up being a good decision as he went 5-for-16 from the field and scored 15 points in 27 minutes. However, Dallas still presents an excellent matchup for him.
The Mavericks are allowing over 23 points per game to both point guards and shooting guards, the fourth-most points allowed to shooting guards. They are allowing 117.4 points per game overall. In Simons' first two games against Portland this year, he scored 30 and 33 points. Now, both of those games were at home. However, when Simons is not on a minutes restriction, he has a very high volume.
In the nine games this season in which he has played 30+ minutes, Simons is averaging 30.1 points per game. He has scored 25 points in seven of the nine games and attempted at least 20 field goals in eight of them. If Simons takes 20 shots and plays 30 minutes tonight, there is a good chance that he scores 25 points, especially if he gets hot from deep.
Simons is averaging 3.6 3s on 9.3 attempts per game this season. The Mavericks are allowing 13.3 3s per game on 36.7% shooting, which should set up well for him. You can also take him to score 30 points at +230 and 35 at +650 on FanDuel.
Pick: Anfernee Simons Over 24.5 Points (-110 at DraftKings)
Prior to the trade last Saturday, Immanuel Quickley had scored 20 points in four of his final six games with the Knicks. However, it has not taken him much time to fit in with his new team.
In two games with the Raptors thus far, he has scored 14 and 26 points. He soared over this line against the Grizzlies on Wednesday. I would not be surprised if he did the same against the Kings tonight.
The Kings are 21st in scoring defense, allowing 117.2 points per game. They are allowing over 23 points to both backcourt spots and Quickley will spend time at both positions. Without an uptick in minutes for Davion Mitchell, the Kings are very vulnerable to guards. They are also allowing opponents to shoot 38.1% from 3 and allowing nearly 13 per game.
The question with the Raptors for now is how will they incorporate their new pieces into their rotation. Quickley has played at least 28 minutes in both games. He was in foul trouble on Monday, which hurt his minutes a little bit. However, he played 33 minutes on Wednesday and was able to go off. I like his chances of doing the same against the Kings.
Sacramento has recently allowed at least 29 points to Terry Rozier, Anfernee Simons and Anthony Edwards. If Quickley repeats his performance from Wednesday night and joins them, you can also take him for 25 points at +360 on FanDuel.
Pick: Immanuel Quickley Over 17.5 Points (-120 at ESPN BET)
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