Warriors vs. Magic Odds & Betting Predictions - February 28, 2025

The Golden State Warriors begin their five game road trip tonight in Orlando and it’s not a favorable matchup particularly for Buddy Hield. Ever since the All-Star Break, the sharpshooter has seen a role change, coming off the bench with Podziemski starting, as he’s now looked as the 6th man microwave scorer for the new-look team. As a result, we can expect Hield’s minutes to range from 14-22 depending on how effective his shot is. But against Orlando, who ranks the best at defending spot-up (38% of his shots) and 5th best at limiting ATB 3-pointers L10 games (39% of his FGA) it won’t be easy. In games playing these minutes vs. top-20 spot up defenses w/ Curry and w/o Kuminga, Hield averages 6.8 PPG, going under 10 points in 7 of 9 games. #PlayerProps

🔑 Magic +4.5 (FanDuel) 2.5u I know they got absolutely destroyed their last game but i love riding that exact team their next time out. They are 18-12 ATS at home and the Warriors are due for a clunker. My model loves this spot for Orlando too, giving them a 5 ⭐️ grade and 59.1% expected win probability.

He's under in just 3/7 since the Jimmy trade but he started for a few of those games. Since moving to the bench, he's recorded 3, 27, 7, 19 PRA and played less than 23 MIN in 3/4 of those games. Under in 18/25 (72%) w/ 25 or less minutes w/ Draymond/Steph - AVG 12.8 PRA. ORL is a brutal MU for Buddy - they allow the lowest C&S FREQ/spot up FREQ%, which is how he gets most of his shots. The 3 and 7 PRA games off the bench were against HOU/DAL who also rank bottom-10 in C&S FREQ% - he took just 5 and 4 FGA in those games. The games he soared over? Both teams top-10 in C&S FREQ%. When Buddy takes 10 or less FGA and plays with Draymond/Steph (regardless of minutes), he's under this line in 16/18 games - AVG 8.9 PRA. In games he takes 10 or less FGA, he AVG just 6.8 PTS. ORL is also a terrible RA MU - they rank #2 in REB and #2 in AST per game --> Buddy has seen 5 RA or less in 4/4 games off the bench w/ Jimmy. He's AVG 9.0 pRA L4, which is a -5.3 decrease from the games he was starting w/ Jimmy. ORL also rank #28 in pace, so this is a pace down spot for GSW on the road --> possessions will be limited and ORL is a T5 team in limiting transition opportunities as well. Under 14.5 PRA also playable

B. Hield ⬇️ 2.5 Threes THE BOUNCE 📽️: 1.83 Threes Collab w/ BettorBetsNBA Here is his 📝: I’m absolutely in love with this play — this is a nightmare matchup for Hield. Orlando allows the fewest three-point attempts in the league, plus the fewest transition threes, which is where Hield gets a big chunk of his points. They’re also the best team at limiting above-the-break threes, where 52% of his shots come from. On top of that, Hield has a 1.6 out of 10 Chart Score, meaning Orlando defends the exact areas he shoots from better than almost anyone. The numbers couldn’t be worse for him. In his one game against Orlando this season, he only took 2 threes and missed both. Orlando also allows the fewest made threes to shooting guards by a wide margin. This is as bad of a spot as you’ll find. I'll add that we get some awesome +EV from sharper books too: FanDuel: -182 Caesars: -199 Pinnacle: -178

Johnny

love the value we are getting on Orlando tonight. The Magic match well with this Warriors team, which lacks offensive firepower. Orlando ranks first in the NBA in points allowed per game (105.5) We will see a close, low-scoring back-and-forth game that favors the underdog.