Spurs vs. Kings Odds & Betting Predictions - March 8, 2025

Tailing @TurveyBets but couldn’t get it as his odds as I needed time to do more research. Can still get it at -140 on bet365. In the month of February, Paul averaged 3.1 rebounds per game on 5.2 rebound chances. The 5.2 rebound chances is the big number for me as it means he’d need to convert 80% of chances if he saw 5 tonight. Sabonis out does hurt as Kings allow the 7th fewest rebounds per game so hoping there’s not a huge dropoff from Sabonis to JoVal. Projections have Paul at 28 minutes and 2.67 rebounds, and I can get on board with that.

CP3 is under in 10 of 13 games with Fox as a member of the Spurs, as he’s averaging only 5 rebound chances per game during this time frame. The Kings are allowing the 6th fewest rebounds to PG & the 2nd fewest to SG L20. His minutes are trending down & his effort isn’t as high as he’s an older veteran player with nothing to play for considering their record & Wemby out for the season. The Spurs are in development mode, getting guys like Castle more experience in a larger role.

Kings at home, laying -5.5 – love the spot. Sacramento’s offense rolling, putting up 116.8 PPG (7th), 47.7% FG (9th), and 35.2% from deep. At home? Even better – 117.1 PPG, 48.1% FG. Spurs’ defense? Leaky. Allows 115.2 PPG (22nd), gives up 37.4% from three (28th). Kings dominated last meeting, 140-113, shooting 56.7% FG. San Antonio missing Wembanyama, weak inside presence. Sacramento still strong on the boards (44.9 RPG) even without Sabonis. Spurs’ road woes – just 11-19 away, defense allows 114.1 PPG in road games. Kings force tempo, Spurs can’t keep up. DeRozan heating up – 35 PTS vs Denver. Spurs have no answer defensively. Spurs' last five – allowing 122.8 PPG, getting torched from three (48.7% FG, 32.3% 3P%). Kings in last five? Holding opponents to 101.2 PPG, 32.2% from three. Spurs’ offense has flashes, but Kings' defense on fire lately. Sacramento covers -5.5 with ease.