Celtics vs. Heat Odds & Betting Predictions - May 22, 2023

Celtics at Heat

12:30 am • TNT

Boston Celtics

3-4

102

102 - 128

Miami Heat

4-3

128

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Celtics 3-4	-4.5-110	o214-112	-180
Heat 4-3	+4.5-110	u214-110	+150

Monday 12:30 a.m.

May 22, 2023

Kaseya CenterMiami

C.Martin o12.5 Pts+Ast-108

BOS -3.5-110

3.3u

Under 217.5 (Live)-113

R.Williams o6.5 Pts-130

Huge mistake Mazzulla didn’t start him over Horford. He’ll still stager & should abuse high PnR to combat zone defense. All it takes is for one mismatch away from Bam against MIA’s small-ball lineup to dominate inside. #PlayerProps

A.Horford Double-Double (Yes)+1400

0.25u

@JoeDellera

J.Tatum o4.5 Ast-140

0.5u

Going lighter because of the RA play. Seeing value on this at 4.5

J.Tatum Double-Double (Yes)-127

This is -150 to -160 on FD/MGM/DK. 18 REB chances last game. He’ll play 40+ MIN. New starting lineup: BOS committed to running small-ball staggering Horford/Time Lord MIN. 10+ REB in 4 of L5 games vs. MIA. #PlayerProps

M.Strus u16.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-125

0.8u

J.Brown u33.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

0.87u

A.Horford o6.5 Rebs+125

0.75u

Ugh here we go again

A.Horford Double-Double (Yes)+1300

0.25u

RW not starting

C.Martin o2.5 3pt M+171

$49.59

BOS -4.5-105

3.15u

MIA +155

3.88u

Under 214-110

K.Lowry o1.5 3pt M-110

0.83u

J.Brown o24.5 Pts+100

0.75u

M.Smart o12.5 Pts+160

0.5u

Bet365 - this is o14.5(!) - entered wrong, will update

C.Martin o14.5 Pts+250

0.75u

MIA +4-110

M.Smart Double-Double (Yes)+1200

0.1u

BOS -1.5 (1H)-127

1.27u

Their theme has been collapsing in the 2nd half due to Spo’s adjustments. Bank on desperation & hot starts if they want to win. BOS 11-4 in playoffs w/ +9.3 NETRTG (2nd best) in 1H. MIA is -0.2 NETRTG in 1H ➡️ +10.0 (#1 ranked) in 2H.

J.Butler Double-Double (Yes)+310

0.33u

D.White o1.5 3pt M-140

Can’t believe they’re still offering this! 83% of shots come from 3PT this series. +130 ➡️ -105 ➡️ -140. BOS should play Game 3 w/ a more smaller lineup, & there’s potential White starts. 2+ 3PM in 8 straight vs. MIA. #PlayerProps

BOS o108.5-115

0.4u

J.Tatum o14.5 Rebs+Ast-136

C.Martin o15.5 Pts+Rebs-130

0.77u

BOS o118.5+390

0.5u

Boston is averaging 116.3 ppg in wins during the Postseason and 121.4 ppg on all of their wins this season. Must win spot today and they’re still shooting well below their averages from 3 point range. Think I’d rather just take this alt than lay points on the spread.

J.Brown o23.5 Pts-130

$65.00

BOS -3-130

$65.00

BOS -2.5 (1H)-110

1.2u

J.Tatum o9.5 Rebs-128

0.78u

K.Lowry o3.5 Ast-132

0.76u

M.Smart o12.5 Pts-118

J.Tatum o14.5 Rebs+Ast-130

21 last game and over in 73% of Playoff games. Expecting max mins in a must win game.

C.Martin o2.5 3pt M+340

1.19u

M.Strus o11.5 Pts-120

Follow at my picks at FTNBets.com!

A.Horford u13.5 Pts+Rebs-111

-Under in 8/L12 playoff -Under in 4 straight vs Mia -Should see fewer minutes moving forward -3 overs vs Embiid who ignored him on offense, and he was rebounding a lot in drop - Both u7.5 pts & u6.5 reb is heavy juiced

C.Martin o1.5 3pt M-120

Over 214-108

C.Martin o10.5 Pts-130

Line hasn’t caught up to role. 20.0 PPG on 30+ MIN so far vs. BOS. He takes advantage of easier defense, & can score on all levels. If BOS decides to put more focus on him, Bam + Jimmy would benefit (not a good idea). #PlayerProps

K.Love u6.5 Rebs+Ast-125

Scroll to read why: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-betting-odds-expert-picks-celtics-vs-heat-predictions-may-21

C.Martin o1.5 3pt M-115

0.87u

3 makes on 7 attempts in both Games 1 and 2. Now he heads home. Like him to stay hot with 29 and 32 mins this series.

B.Adebayo o31.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-117

1.76u

I’m not going to duplicate everything I said last game - but the analysis holds. BOS isn’t as tough as a matchup for Bam as NY and MIL were, and he’s a guy who averaged 34 PRA per 36 mins in the regular season.

BOS -3-110

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NBA Public Betting

Heat are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Heat are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Heat are 24-14 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Heat' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 21 of Heat' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Heat	40-39-3	16-25	24-14-3	23-21-3	17-18
Celtics	42-36-4	23-17-1	19-19-3	41-34-4	1-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Heat	35-47	21-20	14-27	23-24	12-23
Celtics	43-38-1	22-19	21-19-1	42-36-1	1-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Heat	1-4	N/A	N/A	35-12	11-24
Celtics	16-3	N/A	N/A	63-16	1-2

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 20th	@BOS	W 111-105	+9.5 W	O 214.5	MIA +350
May 18th	@BOS	W 123-116	+8.5 W	O 212.5	MIA +305
May 12th	NYK	W 96-92	-6.5 L	U 204.5	MIA -250
May 10th	@NYK	L 103-112	+3.5 L	O 209.5	NYK +134
May 8th	NYK	W 109-101	-4.5 W	O 209.5	MIA -177