Twins vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - September 17, 2024

Twins at Guardians

10:40 pm • BSGL

Minnesota Twins

0-0

4 - 1

Cleveland Guardians

4-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
G.Williams			4.86	3-10
Z.Matthews			6.69	1-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 0-0	+1.5-180	o8-114	+120
Guardians 4-6	-1.5+150	u8-106	-142

Tuesday 10:40 p.m.

September 17, 2024

Progressive FieldCleveland

Under 8.5-125

0.8u

#ProSystem . Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams Overall: 411-280-28,59% (ROI:16%) Season:19-14-1,58% (ROI:12%)

CLE -122

1.22u

J.Ramirez u1.5 Total Bases-123

No way jose

J.Ramirez o0.5 HR+525

0.25u

Odds Surge HR Boost on DK 💎

G.Williams u6.5 Ks-125

Over 8-109

J.Ramirez o1.5 Total Bases+106

Sandy

J.Ramirez o1.5 Total Bases+106

1.06u

Z.Matthews o4.5 Hits Allowed-145

Sura

Z.Matthews o4.5 Hits Allowed-140

G.Williams u6.5 Ks-125

1.25u

Gavin Williams under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125 DK) - Under in 7 straight games - Under in 11/14 starts this season - Under in 3/L3 vs MIN with 0,4,3 (pitched 5 and 6 innings in the 2 games he had 4 and 3 Ks) - Faced the Twins earlier last month and had 3 Ks in 6 innings - MIN ranks 20th in K% on the year - MIN rank 7th in wRC+ and 8th in OBP, so they should be able to get some hits on Williams who has given up 3+ runs in 5/L8 games. - He is coming off a 7 hit and 3 earned runs game against the Rays in his last game, the Twins are a much better lineup and strikeout a lot less. TB is one of the highest K% teams in the MLB and he still went under this line with 5 Ks against them. 👨‍🔬JOIN THE LAB DISCORD TO GET THESE PLAYS AS I PLACE THEM 💰DISCORD LINK IN MY TWITTER BIO

CLE o2.5 Team Total (F5)+130

0.88u

Sandy

CLE o2.5 Team Total (F5)+130

Over 8-113

0.75u

Over 8-113

Over 8.5+100

0.5u

Flat to -102

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Featured Insight
The Guardians have allowed just 2.3 runs per game at home over the last two weeks -- second lowest in MLB (4 games). The Twins have scored just 2.3 runs per game on the road over the last two weeks -- lowest in MLB (7 games).

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The Guardians are 39-10 (.796) when they've hit 2 or more home runs this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Carlos Correa is batting .340 on breaking pitches this season -- best among hitters with at least 225 total PA's-- 100th Percentile. Tim Herrin has thrown his curveball 36% of the time this season -- fifth highest among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Willi Castro is batting just .189 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season -- tied for seventh worst in MLB-- sixth Percentile. 96% of Gavin Williams fastballs are 95+ MPH this season -- eighth highest among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP-- 95th Percentile.

10 of Gavin Williams' 31 breaking pitch strikeouts (32%) have been backdoor this season -- 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 14% -- 96th Percentile.

Gavin Williams has walked 5 of 25 batters (20%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (3 games) -- 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- second Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Guardians are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Guardians are 41-40 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Guardians' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Guardians' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	83-78	42-38	41-40	48-50	34-27
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Guardians	67-83-11	38-38-4	29-45-7	45-46-7	21-36-4
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	92-69	50-30	42-39	63-35	28-33
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 16th	MIN	W 4-3	+1.5 W	U 7.5	CLE -104
Sep 15th	TB	W 2-0	-1.5 W	U 8	CLE -125
Sep 14th	TB	W 6-1	-1.5 W	U 8	CLE -142
Sep 13th	TB	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	TB -191
Sep 12th	TB	L 2-5	-1.5 L	U 7.5	TB -141

Jose Miranda
IF
Jose Miranda (back) has been scratched Thursday.
Out
Trevor Larnach
OF
Larnach is out with hamstring
Out
Joe Ryan
P
Ryan is out with triceps
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RZ.Matthews, P	76	4.2	5	1
LC.Irvin, P	3	0.1	0	0
RC.Sands, P	14	1	1	0
RR.Henriquez, P	10	1	0	0
RJ.Duran, P	30	1.1	2	0
RG.Jax, P	8	0.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Buxton, CF	1-3	1	0	0
2M.Wallner, RF	2-3	0	0	2
2M.Margot, PH	0-2	0	0	0
2M.Margot, RF	0-2	0	0	0
3C.Santana, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
4R.Lewis, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
5T.Larnach, DH	1-3	1	0	0
6W.Castro, LF	2-4	1	1	2
7R.Jeffers, C	1-4	1	0	0
8B.Lee, SS	0-4	0	0	0
9E.Julien, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
9K.Farmer, 2B	0-0	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Williams, P	89	5	7	2
RE.Morgan, P	14	1.1	1	0
LT.Herrin, P	4	0.2	0	0
RN.Sandlin, P	14	1	1	2
RA.Walters, P	20	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Martinez, LF	2-4	0	0	0
2A.Gimenez, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Ramirez, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
4J.Naylor, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5L.Thomas, CF	1-3	1	1	1
6K.Manzardo, DH	1-2	0	0	0
6M.Straw, PR	0-0	0	0	0
6M.Straw, DH	0-0	0	0	0
6D.Fry, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7W.Brennan, RF	2-4	0	0	0
8B.Naylor, C	1-4	0	0	0
9B.Rocchio, SS	0-3	0	0	0