Twins vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - September 17, 2024

Twins at Guardians

10:40 pm • BSGL

Minnesota Twins

40-42

4 - 1

Cleveland Guardians

40-40

pitcher		team	era	w-l
G.Williams			4.86	3-10
Z.Matthews			6.69	1-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 40-42	+1.5-180	o8-114	+120
Guardians 40-40	-1.5+150	u8-106	-142

Tuesday 10:40 p.m.

September 17, 2024

Progressive FieldCleveland

Under 8.5-125

0.8u

#ProSystem . Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams Overall: 411-280-28,59% (ROI:16%) Season:19-14-1,58% (ROI:12%)

CLE -136

0.5u

CLE -122

1.22u

J.Ramirez u1.5 Total Bases-123

No way jose

J.Ramirez o0.5 HR+525

0.25u

Odds Surge HR Boost on DK 💎

G.Williams u6.5 Ks-125

Over 8-109

J.Ramirez o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-140

1.25u

J.Ramirez o1.5 Total Bases+106

1.06u

J.Ramirez o1.5 Total Bases+106

Sandy

Z.Matthews o4.5 Hits Allowed-145

Sura

Z.Matthews o4.5 Hits Allowed-140

G.Williams u6.5 Ks-125

1.25u

Gavin Williams under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125 DK) - Under in 7 straight games - Under in 11/14 starts this season - Under in 3/L3 vs MIN with 0,4,3 (pitched 5 and 6 innings in the 2 games he had 4 and 3 Ks) - Faced the Twins earlier last month and had 3 Ks in 6 innings - MIN ranks 20th in K% on the year - MIN rank 7th in wRC+ and 8th in OBP, so they should be able to get some hits on Williams who has given up 3+ runs in 5/L8 games. - He is coming off a 7 hit and 3 earned runs game against the Rays in his last game, the Twins are a much better lineup and strikeout a lot less. TB is one of the highest K% teams in the MLB and he still went under this line with 5 Ks against them. 👨‍🔬JOIN THE LAB DISCORD TO GET THESE PLAYS AS I PLACE THEM 💰DISCORD LINK IN MY TWITTER BIO

CLE o2.5 Team Total (F5)+130

0.88u

Sandy

CLE o2.5 Team Total (F5)+130

Over 8-113

0.75u

Over 8-113

Over 8.5+100

0.5u

Flat to -102

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Featured Insight
The Guardians have allowed just 2.3 runs per game at home over the last two weeks -- second lowest in MLB (4 games). The Twins have scored just 2.3 runs per game on the road over the last two weeks -- lowest in MLB (7 games).

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The Guardians are 39-10 (.796) when they've hit 2 or more home runs this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Carlos Correa is batting .340 on breaking pitches this season -- best among hitters with at least 225 total PA's-- 100th Percentile. Tim Herrin has thrown his curveball 36% of the time this season -- fifth highest among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Willi Castro is batting just .189 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season -- tied for seventh worst in MLB-- sixth Percentile. 96% of Gavin Williams fastballs are 95+ MPH this season -- eighth highest among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP-- 95th Percentile.

10 of Gavin Williams' 31 breaking pitch strikeouts (32%) have been backdoor this season -- 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 14% -- 96th Percentile.

Gavin Williams has walked 5 of 25 batters (20%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (3 games) -- 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- second Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Guardians are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Guardians are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Guardians are 22-20 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Guardians' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 17 of Guardians' 38 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	39-41	17-21	22-20	15-15	24-25
Twins	45-37	23-16	22-21	28-24	16-13

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Guardians	32-44-4	17-20-1	15-24-3	14-16	18-27-4
Twins	35-43-4	18-20-1	17-23-3	24-26-2	10-17-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	40-40	20-18	20-22	19-11	21-28
Twins	40-42	22-17	18-25	28-24	12-17

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 16th	MIN	W 4-3	+1.5 W	U 7.5	CLE -104
Sep 15th	TB	W 2-0	-1.5 W	U 8	CLE -125
Sep 14th	TB	W 6-1	-1.5 W	U 8	CLE -142
Sep 13th	TB	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	TB -191
Sep 12th	TB	L 2-5	-1.5 L	U 7.5	TB -141

Ben Lively
SP
Lively is out with elbow
Out
Shane Bieber
SP
Bieber is out with elbow
Out
John Means
SP
Means is out with elbow
Out

Royce Lewis
3B
Lewis is out with hamstring
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RZ.Matthews, P	76	4.2	5	1
LC.Irvin, P	3	0.1	0	0
RC.Sands, P	14	1	1	0
RR.Henriquez, P	10	1	0	0
RJ.Duran, P	30	1.1	2	0
RG.Jax, P	8	0.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Buxton, CF	1-3	1	0	0
2M.Wallner, RF	2-3	0	0	2
2M.Margot, PH	0-2	0	0	0
2M.Margot, RF	0-2	0	0	0
3C.Santana, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
4R.Lewis, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
5T.Larnach, DH	1-3	1	0	0
6W.Castro, LF	2-4	1	1	2
7R.Jeffers, C	1-4	1	0	0
8B.Lee, SS	0-4	0	0	0
9E.Julien, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
9K.Farmer, 2B	0-0	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Williams, P	89	5	7	2
RE.Morgan, P	14	1.1	1	0
LT.Herrin, P	4	0.2	0	0
RN.Sandlin, P	14	1	1	2
RA.Walters, P	20	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Martinez, LF	2-4	0	0	0
2A.Gimenez, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Ramirez, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
4J.Naylor, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5L.Thomas, CF	1-3	1	1	1
6K.Manzardo, DH	1-2	0	0	0
6M.Straw, PR	0-0	0	0	0
6M.Straw, DH	0-0	0	0	0
6D.Fry, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7W.Brennan, RF	2-4	0	0	0
8B.Naylor, C	1-4	0	0	0
9B.Rocchio, SS	0-3	0	0	0