Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB picks for Tuesday, September 17.
MLB Predictions & Expert Picks, Odds for Tuesday — 9/17
Sean Zerillo's MLB Braves vs Reds Best Bet
Grant Holmes (ATL) vs. Brandon Williamson (CIN)
After spending the past month working out of the Braves' bullpen, Grant Holmes (3.66 xERA, 3.49 xFIP, 18.9% K-BB%, 98 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+, 4.67 botERA) will return to Altana's starting rotation and make his fifth start of the season in place of an injured Reynaldo Lopez.
The Reds will counter with Brandon Williamson (85 Pitching+, 5.85 botERA), who has excelled in a limited 2024 sample (3.96 xERA in 13 IP) despite woeful results as a rookie (4.77 xERA, 12% K-BB%, 96 Pitching+, 4.91 botERA) after an aggressive promotion to the majors (6.62 ERA, 4.2% K-BB% at Triple-A before his callup) last season.
Moreover, Williamson suffered a shoulder injury in the spring, which kept him out for most of this season. He returned with his velocity ( from 93.5 to 92.8) and Stuff+ ratings ( from 93 to 68) down compared to last season. Projection systems continue to view Williamson as a replacement-level arm (projected FIP range of 4.67 to 5.03); he never posted strong results in the minors, and pitching models don't like him either.
Atlanta has the better starting pitcher and a potentially sizeable bullpen edge, too. Cincinnati has ranked highly by pitch modeling metrics all season (2nd with a 104 Pitching+, 6th with a 3.82 botERA in the second half) compared to the Braves (17th and 22nd, respectively). Still, Braves' relievers have posted better results (2nd in second-half xFIP and K-BB% vs. 19th and 11th, respectively) and projected substantially better in my model.
I'd put Atlanta's bullpen up against any bullpen in baseball (projected 3.30 model-weighted ERA, 1st among the 30 teams in action on Monday), including the Padres (projected 3.33) and Phillies (3.45). However, on Monday, I project the Reds' bullpen closer to a 4.10 model-weighted ERA—23rd best among the 30 teams in action.
Moreover, while the Braves lineup has taken a big hit with all of their injuries, they have performed much better against lefties (115 wRC+, 5th) than righties (96 wRC+, 21st) in the second half. Cincinnati is also in its better split but has struggled against all types of pitching (19th vs. righties, 26th vs. lefties).
Lastly, Atlanta has a sizeable defensive advantage – worth as much as 1.7% to my moneyline projection. The Braves rank 11th in Defensive Runs Saved (+28) and 20th in Outs Above Average (-3), while the Reds rank 28th (-31) and 25th (-18) respectively. By DRS, Cincinnati has ranked as a bottom-four defensive team for the past four seasons.
I projected the Braves around -150 in the first five innings (F5) or first half and -145 for the entire game, but I would reduce bet sizing beyond -127 and -122, respectively.
Bets: Atlanta Braves F5 Moneyline (-137 or better) | Atlanta Braves Full-Game Moneyline (-133 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Phillies vs Brewers MLB Best Bet
Zack Wheeler vs. Frankie Montas (MIL)
The Brewers enter Tuesday with a magic number of two – and can clinch an NL Central title with a win and a Cubs' loss against the Athletics.
When the Brewers do clinch their division, you can't necessarily expect a hangover game the following day; Milwaukee still has seeding (and a potential first-round bye) left to play for, particularly against the Phillies and Dodgers. That said, the Brewers (twelve games vs. the Diamondbacks, Mets, Phillies, and Pirates) do have a more difficult schedule than the Phillies (twelve vs. the Brewers, Cubs, Mets, and Nationals) and Dodgers (six games against the Rockies, three each against the Marlins and Padres) the rest of the way.
Zack Wheeler (2.96 xERA, 3.41 xFIP, 21.1% K-BB%, 108 Pitching+, 2.97 botERA) gives the Phillies the starting pitching advantage against Frankie Montas (4.48 xERA, 4.34 xFIP, 11.6% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 4.23 botERA) and the Brewers.
Still, since arriving in Milwaukee after the trade deadline, Montas has altered his pitch mi and is throwing harder in general, averaging 96.3 mph on his four-seamer and 95.4 mph on his sinker, compared to 95.2 mph and 94.3 mph, respectively, with the Reds.
Improved results (3.40 ERA, 3.59 xFIP, 17.2% K-BB% in Milwaukee vs. 5.01 ERA, 4.70 xFIP, 9% K-BB in Cincinnati) and pitch modeling metrics (101 Pitching+, 4.09 botERA vs. 99, 4.30 in Cincinnati) are both extremely encouraging.
The Brewers' bullpen has also posted better second-half results (3rd in xERA and K-BB%; Phillies are 15th by both metrics).
With two righty starters, offensive splits point to Milwaukee, too. The Brewers rank 6th against right-handed pitching (115 wRC+) since the trade deadline, while the Phillies are 14th (104 wRC+). The teams rank 9th and 13th, respectively, over the 2024 season. The Phillies prefer lefties, ranking 1st on the season (121 wRC+) and since the trade deadline (133 wrC+) against Southpaw pitching.
Bets: Brewers Full-Game Moneyline (+120 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Athletics vs Cubs Prediction & Pick
Mitch Spence (OAK) vs. Jordan Wicks (CHC)
A trio of Action Labs systems triggered for the Under in Tuesday's A's-Cubs matchup, including the Wrigley Field Unders Pro system. The following system has generated a 15.5% ROI since 2005 on a 60.1% win rate, netting more than 77 units for a consistent $100 bettor.
Tuesday's matchup fits the windspeed (6 mph at first pitch) and direction (blowing in from center field). However, the humidity level will also be low compared to an average September day in Chicago – further limiting ball flight.
The greatest threat to an under in these conditions is command – and Jordan Wicks (4.70 xERA, 4.55 xFIP, 10.6% K-BB%, 3.82 botERA) has struggled with a 9.5% walk rate despite a 102 Locaiton+ rating. Wicks missed all of July and August with an oblique injury and has been shaky since his return (8 BB, 6 K in 13 IP), but his velocity in his last start (92.5 mph) bounced back to his season average after dipping to 91.5 and 91.6 mph in his first two starts off of the injured list.
Mitch Spence (3.90 xERA, 4.06 xFIP, 12.3% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 3.73 botERA) is more reliable than Wicks. However, the relievers could make things sweaty – the Cubs and A's rank 25th and 26th in bullpen walk rate this season (20th and 28th in the second half).
I still projected Tuesday's total at 7.41 runs after adjusting for the wind and weather, compared to 8.22 on a weather-neutral day at Wrigley Field.
Bets: Under 8.5 (8, -112 or better)
Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, September 17
- Atlanta Braves F5 (-114, 0.75u) at FanDuel (bet to -137)
- Atlanta Braves (-115, 0.75u) at Caesars (bet to -133
- Atlanta Braves / Cincinnati Reds, Over 9 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -111)
- Houston Astros / San Diego Padres, Over 7.5 (+105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -102)
- Los Angeles Dodgers / Miami Marlins, Under 9.5 (-104, Risk 0.5u) at BallyBet (flat to -120 or 9, -101)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+132, 0.5u; bet to +120)
- Minnesota Twins / Cleveland Guardians, Over 8.5 (+100, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -102)
- New York Mets F5 (-140, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -150)
- New York Mets / Washington Nationals, Under 8 (-112, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -115)
- New York Yankees / Seattle Mariners, Over 7 (-110, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -117)
- Oakland Athletics / Chicago Cubs, Under 8.5 (-124, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -8, -112)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to +104)
