Royals vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - April 25, 2023

Royals at Diamondbacks

1:40 am • BSAZ

Kansas City Royals

0-0

4 - 5

Arizona Diamondbacks

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
T.Henry			4.15	5-4
B.Keller			4.57	3-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Royals 0-0	+1.5-160	o10-110	+130
Diamondbacks 0-0	-1.5+126	u10-110	-160

Tuesday 1:40 a.m.

April 25, 2023

Chase FieldPhoenix

ARI -1+100

KC +134

Over 10.5-105

1.05u

ARI -143

0.7u

KC +130

0.5u

Bet to +118

Over 10-104

Over 10-125

T.Henry u4.5 Ks-146

0.5u

B.Keller o3.5 Ks-112

Available at FanDuel. I have Keller projected for 4.46 strikeouts here thanks to his new approach in 2022. He has entirely changed his pitch repertoire, and it has led to a 20.7% strikeout rate through four starts. He's facing an Arizona team that doesn't strike out much, but he doesn't need them to to hit the over here. Keller has gone 105 pitches in one of his starts, so length is of no concern here.

KC +110 (F5)

0.4u

Joining the Keller folk

KC +110 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to +100

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The Diamondbacks are just 60-36 (.625) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2021 season -- tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .732.

Josh Rojas has a miss rate of 46% on outside fastballs this season -- eighth worst among hitters with at least 30 total PA's-- third Percentile. Brad Keller has located his fastball away 49% of the time this season -- tied for 15th highest among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP-- 88th Percentile.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is batting just .067 on breaking pitches from RHP this season -- tied for fifth worst among hitters with at least 30 total PA's-- third Percentile. Brad Keller has thrown his slider 48% of the time this season -- second highest among qualified SPs-- 98th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last 5 games.
Diamondbacks are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Diamondbacks are 42-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Diamondbacks' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 39 of Diamondbacks' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	82-79	40-41	42-38	36-52	45-27
Royals	82-80	38-43	44-37	32-38	49-40

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Diamondbacks	80-74-7	39-36-6	41-38-1	43-40-5	37-33-2
Royals	71-90-1	31-50	40-40-1	30-40	41-47-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	80-82	43-38	37-43	45-43	34-38
Royals	82-80	43-38	39-42	40-30	40-49

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 23rd	SD	L 5-7	+1.5 L	O 9	SD +131
Apr 23rd	SD	L 3-5	+1.5 L	U 9.5	SD +125
Apr 22nd	SD	W 9-0	+1.5 W	U 9	ARI -108
Apr 21st	SD	L 5-7	+1.5 L	O 10	SD +120
Apr 19th	@STL	L 5-14	+1.5 L	O 10.5	STL +175

John Curtiss
RP
Curtiss is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Keller, P	95	4	2	4
RC.Hernandez, P	29	2	3	0
RJ.Cuas, P	9	1	0	0
LA.Chapman, P	27	1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Witt, SS	0-4	0	0	0
2E.Olivares, LF	1-4	2	1	1
3V.Pasquantino, 1B	3-4	1	0	0
3F.Fermin, PR	0-0	0	0	0
4S.Perez, C	2-4	0	0	2
5F. Reyes, DH	0-5	0	0	0
6M.Massey, 2B	2-4	1	0	0
7M.Duffy, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
7N.Lopez, PH	0-0	0	0	0
7N.Lopez, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
8H. Dozier, RF	0-2	0	0	0
8K.Isbel, PH	1-2	0	0	1
8K.Isbel, CF	1-2	0	0	1
9J. Bradley, CF	0-4	0	0	0
9J. Bradley, RF	0-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LT.Henry, P	73	4.1	1	3
LK.Nelson, P	18	0.2	0	0
RS.McGough, P	26	1.2	1	0
RM.Castro, P	9	0.2	0	1
LA.Chafin, P	35	1.2	4	0
LA.Chafin, P	35	1.2	4	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1G.Perdomo, SS	2-4	0	1
2K.Marte, 2B	1-3	0	0
3C.Carroll, LF	1-3	1	0
3C.Carroll, CF	1-3	1	0
4E. Longoria, 3B	0-4	0	0
5L.Gurriel, DH	0-2	2	0
5L.Gurriel, LF	0-2	2	0
6P.Smith, 1B	2-3	1	1
6C.Walker, PH	0-0	1	0
6C.Walker, 1B	0-0	1	0
7G.Moreno, C	1-3	0	1
8A.Thomas, CF	0-2	0	1
8N.Ahmed, PH	0-1	0	1
9J.McCarthy, RF	0-3	0	0