Guardians vs. Yankees Odds & Betting Predictions - August 20, 2024

good home favs off a loss Overall: 686-393-0,64% (ROI:10%) Season:37-13-0,74% (ROI:28%)

Tailing Jovan

#5Starsmlb

Flat to -155

Circa

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Cleveland has been consistently involved in low-scoring affairs, hitting the under in 11 of their last 15 road games, which emphasizes their inability to produce offense away from home. The Guardians have alternately hit the under in 15 of their last 21 Tuesday games, which may seem a bit arbitrary but could reflect some deeper pattern of the way this team performs on specific days of the week. The Yankees have trended heavily with the under in recent games that are played on a Tuesday. In fact, the under has cashed in 19 of the last 27 games. These indicate both of these teams often stay under the projected total in games, notably under similar situations in scheduling. Let's zero in on the pitching matchup: for the Yankees, Luis Gil has been rather good this season, with a 3.47 ERA and a WHIP of 1.27, although he hasn't been super sharp in his last three starts, allowing an ERA of 6.75. But his full-season numbers say he is capable of throwing a good game, especially with a Cleveland lineup that has really struggled to hit right-handed pitching. The Guardians' below-average offense, with an OPS of .230 and a batting average of .231 against right-handers, does not stand to cause too much havoc against Gil. Compounded by Cleveland's terrible road OPS of .225, which sheds some light on the terribleness that they have been thrown at them on the road. Gil's ability to silence opposing baserunners and runs, in addition to the fact that the Yankees bullpen has an ERA of 3.91 at home, also indicates that this game may have less scoring. The Guardians counter with Matthew Boyd on the bump, some decent, if short, sample-size recent effort. Boyd has thrown to a 3.28 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last few starts, which makes for some evidence of his working ability to control games. His strong form is of essence to the under, as he takes on a Yankees lineup that, while a bit better against left-handed pitching with a .255 OPS and a .257 average, has not really been too effective on offense consistently. Boyd will have to bring with him the good command he has of the ball, not letting it soar and not overly doling out hits or free passes to keep this Yankees offense at bay. Also, Boyd will be supported by one of the elite bullpens in the game, as Cleveland's relievers currently possess a collective ERA of 2.30 through 395.1 innings pitched. Even more importantly, this bullpen has been able to shut the door in many of their victories while also minimizing late-inning comeback opportunities—an ideal situation for an under bet. Historically, these teams have been low-scoring against one another, with the under posting a 12-4 count in their last 16 matchups. This is supported by the form of both sides at the moment, particularly their recent bouts of struggles at the plate. An OPS of .245 by the Yankees and .235 by Cleveland reflects an offense that has been, at best, inconsistent but often ineffective against decent pitching. Combine that fact with strong bullpens on each side, and you have a game likely to be a grind with runs hard to come by. Also, both teams are looking for more offense after recent contests in which neither could create much offense—a trend that could continue here. While the Yankees bullpen comes in with a pretty high 1.27 WHIP, it's been good enough at home to hold on once they get a lead or keep the game close enough till the offense can catch up, and Cleveland's bullpen should be able to shut things down late. When taking all of these factors together: trending under in like matchups, quality pitching, relatively effective bullpen work, and limp offenses, it is no surprise the Under 8.5 feels strongest on this game.

Bet to -118 or 8 (+100)