Reds vs. Rays Odds & Betting Predictions - July 26, 2024

Reds at Rays

10:50 pm • BSOH

Cincinnati Reds

0-0

3 - 2

Tampa Bay Rays

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Baz			3.06	4-3
N.Lodolo			4.76	9-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 0-0	-1.5+160	o7.5-101	-109
Rays 0-0	+1.5-188	u7.5-117	-111

Friday 10:50 p.m.

July 26, 2024

Tropicana FieldSt. Petersburg

S.Steer o0.5 HR+560

0.25u

Under 7.5-115

CIN -107

N.Lodolo o6.5 Ks-111

Projection lands at 6.73 and a +ev pick giving us value at this number

CIN -107

2.8u

Under 7.5-105

0.48u

Flat to -105 or better

Featured Insight
The Reds have allowed just 3.8 runs per game on the road this season -- fourth lowest in MLB (49 games). The Rays have scored just 3.7 runs per game at home this season -- third lowest in MLB (54 games).

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Featured Insight
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games last season -- highest in MLB. The Reds allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games last season -- second highest in MLB.

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The Reds are just 7-17 (.292) after a win as underdogs this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.

The Rays are 37-2 (.949) when leading entering the 8th inning this season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .896.

The Reds are just 22-23 (.489) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season -- 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.

Amed Rosario has an OPS of just .710 since the 2022 season -- 11th worst in MLB-- 10th Percentile. Alexis Diaz has allowed an OPS of just .573 (703 PAs) since the 2022 season -- 11th best among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Shane Baz has a strikeout rate of just 11% (3 SO in 27 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) -- tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 21% -- 10th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 23% (6/26) against Shane Baz this month (3 games) -- 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 42% -- second Percentile.

Nick Lodolo has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (534/1,186) with two-strikes since the 2022 season -- 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 31% -- 98th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Rays are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Rays are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Rays are 44-37 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Rays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Rays' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	89-73	45-36	44-37	32-36	55-34
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Rays	68-88-6	36-40-5	32-48-1	29-38-1	36-48-5
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	80-82	42-39	38-43	36-32	42-47
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 25th	@TOR	W 13-0	-1.5 W	O 8	TB -105
Jul 24th	@TOR	L 3-6	-1.5 L	O 8	TOR -121
Jul 23rd	@TOR	W 4-2	+1.5 W	U 8.5	TB +110
Jul 22nd	@NYY	L 1-9	+1.5 L	O 9	NYY +142
Jul 21st	@NYY	W 6-4	+1.5 W	O 9	TB +124

Shane McClanahan
P
McClanahan is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Jeimer Candelario
IF
Candelario is out with toe
Out
Stuart Fairchild
OF
Fairchild is out with thumb
Out
Matt McLain
IF
McLain is out with shoulder
Out
Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out with elbow
Out
Graham Ashcraft
P
Ashcraft is out with elbow
Out
Andrew Abbott
P
Abbott is out with shoulder
Out
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
IF
Encarnacion-Strand is out with hand
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LN.Lodolo, P	93	6.2	5	2
RF.Cruz, P	5	0.1	0	0
RN.Martinez, P	35	2	2	0
RA.Diaz, P	19	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.India, 2B	0-3	1	0
2E.De La Cruz, SS	0-4	0	0
3S.Steer, 1B	0-4	0	0
4T.Friedl, CF	0-3	1	0
5J.Candelario, DH	1-4	0	2
5A.Slater, PR	0-0	1	0
5A.Slater, DH	0-0	1	0
6T.Stephenson, C	1-3	0	0
7J.Fraley, RF	0-2	0	0
7S.Fairchild, PH	1-2	0	1
7S.Fairchild, RF	1-2	0	1
8N.Marte, 3B	0-4	0	0
9W.Benson, LF	0-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Baz, P	86	6	7	2
LG.Cleavinger, P	14	0.2	1	0
RK.Kelly, P	5	0.1	0	0
RJ.Adam, P	12	1	3	0
RP.Fairbanks, P	17	1	1	0
RM.Rodriguez, P	13	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1Y.Diaz, 1B	1-5	0	0
2A.Rosario, RF	0-3	0	0
2J.Lowe, RF	0-1	0	0
3C.Mead, 3B	1-2	0	0
3R.Palacios, PH	0-2	0	0
3R.Palacios, 2B	0-2	0	0
3R.Palacios, 3B	0-2	0	0
4I.Paredes, DH	0-2	1	0
5J.DeLuca, LF	2-5	1	0
6J.Siri, CF	1-4	0	1
7J.Caballero, 2B	2-4	0	1
7J.Caballero, 3B	2-4	0	1
7J.Caballero, SS	2-4	0	1
8T.Walls, SS	0-3	0	0
8B.Lowe, PH	0-1	0	0
8B.Lowe, 2B	0-1	0	0
9A.Jackson, C	0-4	0	0