Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds & Betting Predictions - May 1, 2025

Red Sox at Blue Jays

11:07 pm • NESN

Boston Red Sox

1-2

2 - 4

Toronto Blue Jays

8-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Berrios			4.18	9-5
T.Houck			8.04	0-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 1-2	-1.5	-1.5+146	o8.5-117	-113
Blue Jays 8-6	u8.5	+1.5-176	u8.5-102	-105

Thursday 11:07 p.m.

May 01, 2025

Rogers CentreToronto

J.Berrios u5.5 Ks-140

0.5u

Have a lean on the under here. Projections have him around 5.1-5.3 but if you look at the underlying metrics, Berrios is generating his lowest swinging strike rate in his career (7.7%) and getting the highest called strike percentage of his career (19.6%). He’s also struggling with walks this season (15 in 34 innings) which I hope continues to elevate his pitch count. This is a good strikeout matchup for him but based on the underlying metrics, I’m willing to take a shot on the under here.

BOS -116

1.16u

J.Berrios o1.5 BB-125

J.Duran o1.5 Total Bases-115

0.86u

V.Guerrero o1.5 Total Bases+110

0.83u

J.Berrios o1.5 BB-135

1.35u

TOR +107

2.14u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-111

Under 8.5-103

Over 4.5 (F5)-105

1.05u

BOS -105

Red Sox have won 6 of last 8 in Toronto – confident at Rogers Centre. Houck owns this matchup – 1 ER in 6.2 IP vs TOR this April, 0 ER in 5 IP here last Sept. Jays hitting just .202 last 10 games, only 3.47 runs/gm on season. Red Sox score 5.12 – big edge. Toronto bats ice cold vs RHP – just .228 avg, no depth beyond Vlad & Bo. Boston bullpen sharper: 3.07 ERA vs Jays' 3.14, and just 2.87 last 3 games. Red Sox hitting .250 on season vs Jays .234. Toronto’s lineup out of sync – .228 vs righties, lacks depth behind Vladdy/ Bichette. Jays' pen shakier lately – 4.64 ERA last 3 games.

BOS -110 (F5)

R.Devers o0.5 HR+375

0.5u

BOS -105

J.Berrios o1.5 BB-120

365

TOR -110

0.91u

365

TOR -106

0.5u

Bet to -115

Red Sox vs Blue Jays: +210 SGP for Thursday
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MLB Public Betting

Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Blue Jays are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Blue Jays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Blue Jays' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	91-71	49-32	42-39	42-45	48-25
Red Sox	87-75	43-38	44-37	53-50	34-23

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Blue Jays	86-71-5	45-34-2	41-37-3	46-40-1	39-30-4
Red Sox	76-82-4	33-45-3	43-37-1	50-50-3	26-30-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	94-68	54-27	40-41	52-35	41-32
Red Sox	89-73	48-33	41-40	61-42	28-29

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 30th	BOS	W 7-6	+1.5 W	O 9.5	TOR -110
Apr 29th	BOS	L 2-10	+1.5 L	O 7.5	BOS +120
Apr 27th	@NYY	L 1-5	+1.5 L	U 8.5	NYY +136
Apr 27th	@NYY	L 2-11	+1.5 L	O 8.5	NYY +170
Apr 25th	@NYY	W 4-2	+1.5 W	U 9	TOR +126

Bowden Francis
SP
Francis is out with shoulder
Out

Tanner Houck
SP
Houck is out with arm
Out
Patrick Sandoval
SP
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
SP
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Jovani Moran
RP
Moran is out with arm
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Houck, P		86	7	6	1
RJ.Slaten, P		29	1	0	3

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Duran, CF	1-4	0	0
2R.Devers, DH	1-3	0	0
3A.Bregman, 3B	1-4	0	2
4W.Abreu, RF	0-4	0	0
5T.Story, SS	1-4	0	0
6T.Casas, 1B	1-4	0	0
7R.Refsnyder, LF	1-4	1	0
8D.Hamilton, 2B	1-3	1	0
9C.Narvaez, C	0-3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Berrios, P	88	6.2	8	2
LM.Fluharty, P	6	1.1	0	0
RY.Garcia, P	12	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Bichette, SS	1-4	1	0	0
2V.Guerrero, 1B	1-4	1	1	3
3A.Santander, DH	1-4	0	0	0
4D.Varsho, CF	1-3	1	1	1
5A.Kirk, C	1-4	0	0	0
6A.Barger, 3B	0-2	0	0	0
6A.Gimenez, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
7A.Roden, LF	0-3	0	0	0
8E.Clement, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8E.Clement, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
9N.Lukes, RF	2-3	1	0	0