Pirates vs. Cubs Odds & Betting Predictions - May 16, 2024

Pirates at Cubs

11:40 pm • MARQ

Pittsburgh Pirates

30-28

5 - 4

Chicago Cubs

31-27

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Steele			3.07	5-5
J.Jones			4.14	6-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Pirates 30-28	+1.5-199	o8-114	+104
Cubs 31-27	-1.5+165	u8-105	-123

Thursday 11:40 p.m.

May 16, 2024

Wrigley FieldChicago

CHC -125

2.5u

PIT +105

1.05u

PIT +110

1.1u

CHC -122 (F5)

1.22u

PIT +110

1.65u

PIT +115

$23.00

PIT +142

$14.20

PIT +110

1.1u

PIT +105 (F5)

1.05u

B.Reynolds o0.5 HR+510

0.2u

B.Reynolds o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-135

0.74u

J.Steele u5.5 Ks+118

0.5u

J.Jones o6.5 Ks+116

0.58u

PIT +117 (F5)

0.59u

PIT +116

0.58u

PIT +125

0.63u

Superbook. Bet to +113

PIT +120

1.2u

Would rather find an F5 and not deal w/ pens, but don't want to let this number get away. Jones (27 K-BB%) has the best Stuff+ (135) and Pitching+ (115) grades in the league. Steele should be better, but he's also part of the reason the Pirates have a 109 wRC+ against LHP (9.9 BB%, 15.5 HR/FB). The Cubs have a 96 wRC+ against RHP.

Over 7.5-110

0.5u

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Featured Insight
The Cubs have scored first in 55% of their games since the 2022 season -- fifth highest in MLB. The Pirates have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games since the 2022 season -- fourth highest in MLB.

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Opening Pitch: MLB Bets for Bucs-Cubs, A's-'Stros
Sean Zerillo•
May 16, 2024 UTC
MLB Player Props for Thursday: Bets For Tyler Glasnow and Justin Steele
Alex Hinton•
May 16, 2024 UTC

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The Cubs are 24-19 (.558) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .426.

33% of Cody Bellinger strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- tied for 13th highest in MLB-- 93rd Percentile. 46% of Jared Jones's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- ninth highest among qualified SPs-- 91st Percentile.

Michael Busch has struck out in 34% of PA's this season -- fifth highest in MLB-- second Percentile. Aroldis Chapman has a strikeout rate of 37% this season -- eighth highest among qualified RPs-- 96th Percentile.

Jared Jones has a strike rate of 74% (229/311) against right-handed batters this season -- highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 65% -- 100th Percentile.

Jared Jones has a strike rate of 72% (482/670) this season -- highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 64% -- 100th Percentile.

Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (229/499) when behind in the count since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 31% -- 100th Percentile.

Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,454/3,386) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 31% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Cubs are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Cubs are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Cubs are 11-18 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Cubs' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 15 of Cubs' 29 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	23-35	12-17	11-18	14-23	9-12
Pirates	30-28	15-16	15-12	17-16	12-12

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Cubs	33-25	15-14	18-11	19-18	14-7
Pirates	31-25-2	20-11	11-14-2	21-12	9-13-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	31-27	18-11	13-16	21-16	10-11
Pirates	30-28	16-15	14-13	19-14	10-14

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 15th	@ATL	W 7-1	+1.5 W	U 9	CHC +154
May 14th	@ATL	L 0-7	+1.5 L	U 7.5	ATL +164
May 13th	@ATL	L 0-2	+1.5 L	U 8	ATL +119
May 12th	@PIT	W 5-4	-1.5 L	U 9	CHC -120
May 11th	@PIT	L 9-10	-1.5 L	O 7	PIT -112

Tyler Austin
1B
Austin is out with knee
Out
Justin Steele
SP
Steele is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Jones, P	91	6	7	3
LA.Chapman, P	17	1	2	0
RC.Holderman, P	23	1	1	0
RD.Bednar, P	8	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Joe, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
1C.Joe, RF	1-4	0	0	0
2B.Reynolds, DH	1-4	0	0	1
3O.Cruz, SS	0-4	1	0	0
4E.Olivares, RF	2-4	2	1	2
4R.Tellez, 1B	0-0	0	0	0
5N.Gonzales, 3B	1-4	1	1	1
6Y.Grandal, C	0-3	0	0	1
7J.Suwinski, LF	0-4	0	0	0
8M.Taylor, CF	1-3	1	0	0
9A.Williams, 2B	1-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Steele, P	88	5.2	7	5
RH.Wesneski, P	21	1.1	3	0
RT.Miller, P	27	2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Tauchman, DH	1-5	1	0	0
2S.Suzuki, RF	1-3	1	0	0
3C.Bellinger, CF	1-4	0	0	1
4C.Morel, 3B	0-3	0	0	1
5I.Happ, LF	1-4	1	1	1
6M.Busch, 1B	1-3	1	0	0
7N.Madrigal, 2B	1-4	0	0	1
8M.Mastrobuoni, SS	1-4	0	0	0
9M.Amaya, C	0-3	0	0	0
9P.Wisdom, PH	0-1	0	0	0