We've got a six-game slate in the MLB on Thursday with four series finales.
However, two four-game series beginning Thursday night include Pirates vs Cubs and Reds vs Dodgers.
I'll target Chicago's Justin Steele and LA's Tyler Glasnow for MLB Player Props on Thursday, May 16.
MLB Player Props (Thursday, May 16)
- Justin Steele Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-150) BetMGM
- Tyler Glasnow To Record A Win (-110) DraftKings
Steele has developed into the Cubs' ace over the last two years.
However, one team that has given him fits is the Pirates.
In seven lifetime appearances (six starts), Steele is 1-2 with a 6.46 ERA against Pittsburgh. After tossing seven scoreless innings in his first start against them, he has allowed at least three runs and two earned runs in each of his last five head-to-head starts, including five earned runs or more thrice.
The latest came last Saturday when the Pirates tallied six runs against him in just four innings.
Having just seen his arsenal and having a lot of success against him should give the Pirates a lot of confidence heading into tonight's game — particularly Connor Joe and O'Neil Cruz, who both homered off Steele last week.
That was Steele's second start off the IL, and the Cubs probably expected more innings from him. Steele may work deeper into the game back on his home mound.
But this prop can still cash. I'd imagine he allows two or three earned across five or six innings.
Pick: Justin Steele Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-150)
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Last Thursday, I faded the Reds offense against Slade Cecconi, who allowed one earned run in 5 1/3 innings.
The Reds turned the tables on Tuesday in a 6-2 victory in Arizona.
However, that was just their second win in their past 13 games this month. In that span, they're scoring only 2.7 runs per game.
It will be hard for them to get three runs today against Glasnow, who boasts a 2.53 ERA after allowing two runs or fewer in seven of nine starts.
Strikeouts fuel Glasnow's dominance, as he's amassed 73 in only 57 innings. I lean toward betting over 8.5 strikeouts for him tonight, but I'm more confident in the Dodgers winning the game.
The Dodgers are 17-5 in their past 22 games, averaging 5.5 runs per game during the furious winning stretch. They also may look to make up for Glasnow's last start, when he allowed just one run across seven innings but earned a no-decision in a 2-1 loss to the Padres.
But that hasn't happened often, as the Dodgers have scored four or more runs in eight of his nine starts, helping him to a 6-1 record and the second-most wins among MLB pitchers.
The Dodgers are -335 on the moneyline, but Glasnow has pitched five innings in all nine starts.
Considering that, the best way to back the Dodgers tonight is to back Glasnow for a win himself.
Pick: Tyler Glasnow To Record A Win (-110)
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