Phillies vs. Nationals Odds & Betting Predictions - March 27, 2025

3.63% ev pinny line at -121

Zack Wheeler’s filthy, but Nats aren’t scared – Gore threw 6 shutout innings w/ 9 Ks vs Philly in his last 2024 start. Wheeler solid (2.29 ERA in 3 starts vs WSH), but Nats' lefties match up well. Philly lineup shift vs LHPs still untested. Home opener juice matters. Nats hit .242 vs RHP last season – not elite, but CJ Abrams hit .259 vs righties, .256 career avg vs PHI. New-look bullpen adds heat: Susana touching 101mph, Sims + López stabilize late innings. Gore ended ‘24 on fire – 7 straight starts w/ ≤2 ER, including vs PHI. Momentum matters – WSH looked sharp in spring, offense showed life, young guys flashed. Phillies still elite, but Wheeler has a 4.45 career ERA vs Nats. Philly bullpen was mid (3.94 ERA), and if Gore holds early, WSH pen can close. Early season = chaos. We ride the dog.

Washington was one of the toughest lineups to strike out last season, and they could be even better in that regard this season. The Nats finished with the 8th-lowest K% against RHP last season. Over the final two months of the season, Washington was down to the 4th-lowest strikeout rate. They've moved on from high-strikeout bats, like Lane Thomas and Joey Gallo, replacing them with good-contact options, including Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell. Paul DeJong stands out as a whiff-heavy addition, but the surrounding lineup should make up for his shortcomings. Wheeler maxed out at 75 pitches and 5 innings in Spring Training. That will likely be the extent of his leash in his season debut. Wheeler exceeded 10 K/9 last season for the first time since 2021, but projections systems have him falling back below that mark. He should be good for a strikeout per inning, but anything beyond that is unlikely.

Wheeler only went over this line in 1/3 starts against WSH last year. WSH struck out the 5th least last year and actually got better in the 2nd half of the season. Also pretty high number to start the season so like to fade just because they don’t let him stretch out the innings too much in the first start of the year

Bet to -160

Projecting Wheeler closer to 5.7 strikeouts. He made four spring training starts and fanned 13 batters over 14 innings. More importantly, he threw just 30, 50, 75, and 71 pitches in those starts. He’s not the type of pitcher who needs a ton of spring work to get stretched out but I’m thinking it’s more likely we see a 90-pitch outing as opposed to a 100-pitch outing. Nationals were a below-average offense last season and they didn’t do anything in the offseason to drastically change that, but they were one of the harder teams to strikeout against RHP. They had just a 20.6% K%, which made them the 8th hardest team to strikeout.