Orioles vs. Rangers Odds & Betting Predictions - April 5, 2023

Orioles at Rangers

6:05 pm • BSSW

Baltimore Orioles

12-13

2 - 5

Texas Rangers

13-14

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Orioles 12-13	+1.5-130	o7.5-115	+160
Rangers 13-14	-1.5+110	u7.5-105	-194

Wednesday 6:05 p.m.

April 05, 2023

Globe Life FieldArlington

G. Rodriguez o4.5 Ks-116

The top MLB pitching prospect in baseball is making his debut here. While Rodriguez struggled in spring training the Ks were there and his stuff is filthy. Even if he ends up on a strict pitch count in the 70-75 range I still think he clears this. I’m projecting a 30%+ K rate for the 3-7 & 9 hitters in his first time through the lineup and a ~53% chance he will have 3 Ks after getting through the lineup once. I’m projecting this closer to 5.5 and a fair price of -165 for over 4.5

BAL +174

0.5u

add just bc the price

BAL +175 (F5)

0.15u

BAL +175 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to +170

G. Rodriguez o4.5 Ks-110

0.32u

He’s one of the best pitching prospects in baseball with multiple plus pitches. He struggled a bit in Spring Training but last season with Norfolk he logged: 2.20 ERA, 97 Ks in 69.2 innings (14 starts) Stud.

G. Rodriguez o5.5 Ks+210

0.15u

BAL +155

0.25u

BAL +1.5-137

1.37u

BAL +170

AL ROTY quest begins

BAL +1.5-126

0.63u

Bet to -145

BAL +176

0.5u

Bet to +146. Can increase sizing or add spread. Waiting on F5 Grayson. Has. Arrived.

BAL +176

0.4u

Gotta do it

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The Orioles are 65-4 (.942) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Orioles are 67-69 (.493) when underdogs since the 2022 season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .397.

The Rangers are just 31-30 (.508) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Jorge Mateo had an OPS of just .646 last season -- ninth worst in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Jacob deGrom allowed an OPS of just .537 (264 PAs) last season -- fourth best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 98th Percentile.

64% of Jorge Mateo fastball strikeouts were located away last season -- fourth highest in MLB-- 97th Percentile. 64% of Jacob deGrom fastball strikeouts were located away last season -- fourth highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .085 (32-for-378) against Jacob deGrom with two-strikes since the 2021 season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .167 -- 100th Percentile.

Jacob deGrom has a strikeout rate of 43% (263 SO in 605 PAs) since the 2021 season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 23% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rangers	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Orioles	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Rangers	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Orioles	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rangers	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Orioles	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 5th	BAL	L 2-7	-1.5 L	O 8.5	BAL -150
Apr 4th	BAL	L 0-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	BAL -142
Apr 2nd	PHI	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 8.5	TEX -125
Apr 1st	PHI	W 16-3	+1.5 W	O 7.5	TEX +104
Mar 30th	PHI	W 11-7	-1.5 W	O 6.5	TEX -139

Jorge Mateo
IF
Mateo is out with elbow
Out
Trevor Rogers
P
Rogers is out with knee
Out
Kyle Bradish
P
Bradish is out with elbow
Out
Tyler Wells
P
Wells is out with elbow
Out

Chayce McDermott
P
McDermott is questionable with back
Questionable

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Rodriguez, P	83	5	5	2
RA.Voth, P	33	1.1	3	3
LK.Akin, P	9	0.2	0	0
RB.Baker, P	16	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1C.Mullins, CF	0-4	0	0
2A.Rutschman, C	0-3	0	0
3A.Santander, RF	0-4	0	0
4R.Mountcastle, 1B	1-4	1	0
5G.Henderson, 3B	0-4	0	0
6T.Vavra, DH	0-1	1	0
6R.Urias, PH	0-1	0	0
6R.Urias, DH	0-1	0	0
7A.Hays, LF	0-3	0	1
8A.Frazier, 2B	1-3	0	1
9J.Mateo, SS	0-2	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.deGrom, P	92	6	11	1
LW.Smith, P	16	1.1	2	0
RJ.Hernandez, P	13	0.2	1	0
RJ.Leclerc, P	12	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Semien, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
2C.Seager, SS	0-4	1	0	0
3N.Lowe, 1B	1-4	0	0	1
4A.Garcia, CF	2-4	2	0	1
4A.Garcia, RF	2-4	2	0	1
5J.Jung, 3B	2-4	1	1	3
6R.Grossman, RF	1-4	0	0	0
6R.Grossman, LF	1-4	0	0	0
7M.Garver, DH	1-4	0	0	0
8J.Heim, C	0-3	0	0	0
9E.Duran, LF	1-3	1	0	0
9T.Jankowski, CF	0-0	0	0	0