Orioles vs. Rangers Odds & Betting Predictions - April 5, 2023

Orioles at Rangers

6:05 pm • BSSW

Baltimore Orioles

0-2

2 - 5

Texas Rangers

0-0

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Orioles 0-2	+1.5-130	o7.5-115	+160
Rangers 0-0	-1.5+110	u7.5-105	-194

Wednesday 6:05 p.m.

April 05, 2023

Globe Life FieldArlington

BAL +0.5 (F5)+125

0.63u

Happy Grayson Rodriguez day

G. Rodriguez o4.5 Ks-116

0.5u

@The_Oddsmaker

G. Rodriguez o4.5 Ks-116

The top MLB pitching prospect in baseball is making his debut here. While Rodriguez struggled in spring training the Ks were there and his stuff is filthy. Even if he ends up on a strict pitch count in the 70-75 range I still think he clears this. I’m projecting a 30%+ K rate for the 3-7 & 9 hitters in his first time through the lineup and a ~53% chance he will have 3 Ks after getting through the lineup once. I’m projecting this closer to 5.5 and a fair price of -165 for over 4.5

G. Rodriguez o4.5 Ks-110

0.32u

He’s one of the best pitching prospects in baseball with multiple plus pitches. He struggled a bit in Spring Training but last season with Norfolk he logged: 2.20 ERA, 97 Ks in 69.2 innings (14 starts) Stud.

G. Rodriguez o5.5 Ks+210

0.15u

BAL +175 (F5)

0.15u

BAL +175 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to +170

BAL +155

0.25u

BAL +1.5-137

1.37u

Under 4.5 (F5)-125

Under 7.5-105

BAL +1.5-126

0.63u

Bet to -145

BAL +176

0.5u

Bet to +146. Can increase sizing or add spread. Waiting on F5 Grayson. Has. Arrived.

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The Orioles are 65-4 (.942) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Orioles are 67-69 (.493) when underdogs since the 2022 season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .397.

The Rangers are just 31-30 (.508) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Jorge Mateo had an OPS of just .646 last season -- ninth worst in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Jacob deGrom allowed an OPS of just .537 (264 PAs) last season -- fourth best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 98th Percentile.

64% of Jorge Mateo fastball strikeouts were located away last season -- fourth highest in MLB-- 97th Percentile. 64% of Jacob deGrom fastball strikeouts were located away last season -- fourth highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .085 (32-for-378) against Jacob deGrom with two-strikes since the 2021 season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .167 -- 100th Percentile.

Jacob deGrom has a strikeout rate of 43% (263 SO in 605 PAs) since the 2021 season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 23% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Rangers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Rangers are 33-47 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Rangers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 32 of Rangers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rangers	70-91	37-44	33-47	35-56	34-34
Orioles	87-75	41-40	46-35	61-57	25-16

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Rangers	74-79-8	32-47-2	42-32-6	40-47-4	34-30-4
Orioles	85-63-14	40-32-9	45-31-5	60-45-13	22-18-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rangers	78-84	44-37	33-47	52-39	24-44
Orioles	91-71	44-37	47-34	68-50	22-19

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 5th	BAL	L 2-7	-1.5 L	O 8.5	BAL -150
Apr 4th	BAL	L 0-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	BAL -142
Apr 2nd	PHI	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 8.5	TEX -125
Apr 1st	PHI	W 16-3	+1.5 W	O 7.5	TEX +104
Mar 30th	PHI	W 11-7	-1.5 W	O 6.5	TEX -139

Jorge Mateo
IF
Mateo is out with elbow
Out
Grayson Rodriguez
P
Rodriguez is out with back
Out
Tyler Wells
P
Wells is out with elbow
Out

Corey Seager
IF
Seager is out with hip
Out
Tyler Mahle
P
Mahle is out with shoulder
Out
Evan Carter
OF
Carter is out with back
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Rodriguez, P	83	5	5	2
RA.Voth, P	33	1.1	3	3
LK.Akin, P	9	0.2	0	0
RB.Baker, P	16	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1C.Mullins, CF	0-4	0	0
2A.Rutschman, C	0-3	0	0
3A.Santander, RF	0-4	0	0
4R.Mountcastle, 1B	1-4	1	0
5G.Henderson, 3B	0-4	0	0
6T.Vavra, DH	0-1	1	0
6R.Urias, PH	0-1	0	0
6R.Urias, DH	0-1	0	0
7A.Hays, LF	0-3	0	1
8A.Frazier, 2B	1-3	0	1
9J.Mateo, SS	0-2	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.deGrom, P	92	6	11	1
LW.Smith, P	16	1.1	2	0
RJ.Hernandez, P	13	0.2	1	0
RJ.Leclerc, P	12	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Semien, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
2C.Seager, SS	0-4	1	0	0
3N.Lowe, 1B	1-4	0	0	1
4A.Garcia, CF	2-4	2	0	1
4A.Garcia, RF	2-4	2	0	1
5J.Jung, 3B	2-4	1	1	3
6R.Grossman, RF	1-4	0	0	0
6R.Grossman, LF	1-4	0	0	0
7M.Garver, DH	1-4	0	0	0
8J.Heim, C	0-3	0	0	0
9E.Duran, LF	1-3	1	0	0
9T.Jankowski, CF	0-0	0	0	0