Orioles vs. Nationals Odds & Betting Predictions - May 7, 2024

Orioles at Nationals

10:45 pm • MASN

Baltimore Orioles

9-10

0 - 3

Washington Nationals

10-9

pitcher		team	era	w-l
T.Williams			2.03	6-1
C.Burnes			2.92	15-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Orioles 9-10	-1.5-135	o8.5-118	-218
Nationals 10-9	+1.5+114	u8.5-102	+180

Tuesday 10:45 p.m.

May 07, 2024

Nationals ParkWashington

BAL -1.5-125

1.25u

BAL -1.5-130

C.Burnes u5.5 Ks-105

1.05u

Under in 4/7, and only has exceeded 6 Ks once (opening day vs the Angels). Gets a Nats lineup with 7 guys who have a sub-20% K% vs righties - and one who doesn’t (Rosario) has not K’ed in 5 ABs vs Burnes. And he’s been excellent vs lefties in general (.223 wOBA), but only a 18.2% K%. He faces five lefties today.

C.Burnes u5.5 Ks-105

@The_Oddsmaker

C.Burnes u5.5 Ks-105

@The_Oddsmaker

C.Burnes u5.5 Ks-105

0.53u

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

C.Burnes u5.5 Ks-105

1.05u

WSH +184

1.29u

40% for me, up from 35.2% implied. Trevor Williams is throwing his slider differently and throwing it more this year, and it has helped improve his underlying data quite a bit (beyond just the nice results). Orioles should be favored -- just not by this much.

Featured Insight
Orioles have won 58% of their games since the 2022 season -- fourth best in MLB. Nationals have won just 40% of their games since the 2022 season -- fourth worst.

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The Orioles are 34-58 (.370) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .268.

The Nationals are just 40-56 (.417) at home since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .519.

The Orioles are 63-33 (.656) on the road since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .481.

The Nationals are 61-6 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .856.

Adley Rutschman has struck out in just 15% of PA's since last season -- 15th lowest in MLB-- 89th Percentile. Trevor Williams has a strikeout rate of just 14% vs left-handed batters since last season -- tied for second lowest among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP-- third Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 61% of the time (180/297) since last season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% -- 100th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 36% of Trevor Williams' breaking pitches (406/1,115) since the 2022 season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 47% -- 0 Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 39% of Trevor Williams' non-fastballs (802/2,056) since the 2022 season -- tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 48% -- second Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nationals are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Nationals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Nationals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	89-73	44-37	45-36	14-12	75-59
Orioles	87-75	41-40	46-35	61-57	25-16

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nationals	76-78-8	37-39-5	39-39-3	9-16-1	65-62-7
Orioles	85-63-14	40-32-9	45-31-5	60-45-13	22-18-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	71-91	38-43	33-48	15-11	56-78
Orioles	91-71	44-37	47-34	68-50	22-19

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 5th	TOR	W 11-8	+1.5 W	O 8.5	WSH -112
May 4th	TOR	L 3-6	+1.5 L	O 7.5	TOR +145
May 3rd	TOR	W 9-3	+1.5 W	O 8.5	WSH +177
May 2nd	@TEX	L 0-6	+1.5 L	U 8	TEX +164
May 2nd	@TEX	W 1-0	+1.5 W	U 9	WSH +167

Josiah Gray
P
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out

Jorge Mateo
IF
Mateo is out with elbow
Out
Trevor Rogers
P
Rogers is out with knee
Out
Kyle Bradish
P
Bradish is out with elbow
Out
Tyler Wells
P
Wells is out with elbow
Out
Chayce McDermott
P
McDermott is questionable with back
Questionable

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Burnes, P	95	6.1	6	3
RJ.Webb, P	18	0.2	1	0
LK.Akin, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1G.Henderson, SS	0-4	0	0	0
2A.Rutschman, C	1-4	0	0	0
3R.O'Hearn, DH	0-4	0	0	0
4R.Mountcastle, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5A.Santander, RF	0-3	0	0	0
6C.Cowser, LF	0-3	0	0	0
7J.Westburg, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
7J.Westburg, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
8C.Mullins, CF	1-3	0	0	0
9R.Urias, 3B	0-2	0	0	0
9H.Kjerstad, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9J.Mateo, 2B	0-0	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
RT.Williams, P	77	5	8
LR.Garcia, P	13	1	2
RD.Law, P	10	1	0
RH.Harvey, P	17	1	1
RK.Finnegan, P	10	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Young, CF	0-2	0	0
2C.Abrams, SS	0-4	0	0
3L.Garcia, 2B	0-2	0	0
4N.Senzel, DH	0-3	0	0
5J.Winker, LF	2-4	1	0
6J.Meneses, 1B	2-4	1	1
7K.Ruiz, C	0-4	0	0
8E.Rosario, RF	1-3	1	1
9T.Lipscomb, 3B	1-4	0	1