Cubs vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - April 14, 2026

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There may be some value on Seiya Suzuki's home runs prop. THE BAT X is projecting him to record 0.26 home runs, and oddsmakers are implying 0.20. The model believes there is a 22% chance he records at least 1 home run, so there is value on the over at +470. This play is good down to at least +418. Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/mlb?ref=zdlkmgz

Sent this out last night at 9 (-105), but this is good to 9.5. Riley Martin will open up as the opener for the Cubs and will likely go just one inning before handing the ball off to Colin Rea, one of my favorite pitchers to fade last year. He has started this season off well, but this is a great time to fade him again. He currently has a 3.18 ERA with a 3.68 xERA and 3.63 FIP. Last season, he ended with a 4.52 xERA and is an early regression candidate this season. Rea has always had concerning pitch modeling, but even more so this year. His Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ grades are all at career lows this season. A 92 Stuff+ and 90 Pitching+ grade is less than ideal, especially considering he’s also below average in command this year as well. Rea ended last season with a .261 xBA, 10.3% barrel rate, and a poor 19.2% strikeout rate. He will get to face a Phillies lineup that is top 10 in wRC+ against right handed pitching and that exploded for 13 runs last night. Once Rea exits, the Phillies will see a very average Cubs bullpen that has some bad advanced numbers. Right now they sit 15th in ERA at 3.98, but they own a 4.91 xERA with a 4.80 FIP. Similarly to Rea, this unit is due for regression. Aaron Nola will get the ball for the Phillies. I like Nola, but he’s certainly not the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Nola ended last season with a 6.01 ERA and is very prone to a blowup start. He owns a better ERA in a small sample size this season, but still has estimators in the fours. His Location+ grade is also at its worst mark of his career at just 98. Nola’s fastball has been awful, ranking in just the 12th percentile in run value. He also has a .256 xBA with a 10.6% barrel rate and a 42.6% hard hit rate. Nola can be good, but his stuff has definitely regressed from his early career. The Cubs offense should have a big day today. Not to mention, today will be perfect hitting weather in Philadelphia. They’re calling for 83 degree temperatures at gametime along with 8-10 MPH winds out to right center field. This wind should increase home runs by almost 10% according to Ballpark Pal. I’ll take the over 9.