Brewers vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - April 22, 2024

Brewers at Pirates

10:40 pm • BSWI

Milwaukee Brewers

34-20

2 - 4

Pittsburgh Pirates

30-28

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Jones			4.14	6-8
J.Ross			3.77	3-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Brewers 34-20	+1.5-175	o7.5+100	+127
Pirates 30-28	-1.5+145	u7.5-122	-151

Monday 10:40 p.m.

April 22, 2024

PNC ParkPittsburgh

PIT -1+105

2.1u

PIT -162 (F5)

1.62u

MIL +120

0.5u

As good as Jones has been, they've been very conservative with him, which means you'll see plenty of bullpen, while Ross hasn't been as bad as his 4.94 ERA. The Brewers have a 40 point wRC+ edge against RHP, as well as a large defensive advantage with maybe the better bullpen too.

Under 4 (F5)-105

1.5u

PIT -130

0.77u

J.Jones u6.5 Ks+114

0.92u

PIT -145

$1.00

J.Jones o6.5 Ks-125

$1.00

PIT -135 (F5)

0.68u

Bet to -148

Featured Insight
Brewers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season -- fourth highest in MLB. Pirates have struck out 25% since the 2022 season -- second highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Pirates RPs have a strikeout rate of 30% vs right-handed batters this season -- highest in MLB. Brewers right-handed hitters have struck out 28% against LHP this season -- third highest in MLB.

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Opening Pitch: Zerillo's MLB Bets for Monday
Sean Zerillo•
Apr 22, 2024 UTC

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The Brewers are 28-0 (1.000) when they've had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .793.

Willy Adames has struck out in 26% of PA's since the 2022 season -- 12th highest in MLB-- 11th Percentile. Aroldis Chapman has a strikeout rate of 36% since the 2022 season -- sixth highest among qualified RPs-- 97th Percentile.

Rhys Hoskins is slugging .618 on non-fastballs this season -- 12th best among hitters with at least 30 total PA's-- 92nd Percentile. Jared Jones has allowed a SLG of .477 non-fastballs this season -- 10th worst among qualified SPs-- 14th Percentile.

Joe Ross has allowed a slugging percentage of just .200 (3 Total Bases / 15 ABs) on inside fastballs this season -- tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .424 -- 90th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Pirates are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Pirates are 15-12 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Pirates' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 20 of Pirates' 31 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	30-28	15-16	15-12	17-16	12-12
Brewers	32-22	18-12	14-10	20-14	12-8

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Pirates	31-25-2	20-11	11-14-2	21-12	9-13-2
Brewers	24-29-1	13-17	11-12-1	16-17-1	8-12

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	30-28	16-15	14-13	19-14	10-14
Brewers	34-20	19-11	15-9	23-11	11-9

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 21st	BOS	L 1-6	-1.5 L	U 8	BOS -155
Apr 20th	BOS	L 2-4	+1.5 L	U 7.5	BOS -120
Apr 19th	BOS	L 1-8	+1.5 L	O 8.5	BOS -115
Apr 17th	@NYM	L 1-9	+1.5 L	O 7.5	NYM +135
Apr 16th	@NYM	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	NYM -107

Akil Baddoo
LF
Baddoo is out with quad
Out
Quinn Priester
SP
Priester is out with wrist
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Ross, P	79	5.1	4	1
LH.Milner, P	11	0.1	0	0
RT.Vieira, P	33	2.1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Frelick, LF	0-3	0	0	0
1J.Wiemer, PH	0-1	0	0	0
1J.Wiemer, LF	0-1	0	0	0
1O.Dunn, PH	0-1	0	0	0
2W.Contreras, C	1-3	1	0	0
3W.Adames, SS	0-3	0	0	0
4J.Bauers, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
4G.Sanchez, PH	0-0	0	0	0
4O.Miller, PR	0-0	0	0	0
4O.Miller, 1B	0-0	0	0	0
5R.Hoskins, DH	1-3	1	1	2
6B.Perkins, CF	0-3	0	0	0
7B.Turang, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
8J.Chourio, RF	1-4	0	0	0
9J.Ortiz, 3B	1-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Jones, P	91	6	7	1
RC.Holderman, P	15	1	1	0
LA.Chapman, P	16	0.1	1	1
RH.Stratton, P	5	0.2	0	0
RD.Bednar, P	20	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.McCutchen, DH	3-4	1	1	1
2B.Reynolds, RF	0-2	0	0	0
3K.Hayes, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
4R.Tellez, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
4C.Joe, PH	1-2	1	0	0
4C.Joe, 1B	1-2	1	0	0
5J.Suwinski, LF	0-3	1	0	0
6M.Taylor, CF	0-3	0	0	0
7O.Cruz, SS	3-4	0	0	2
8H.Davis, C	0-3	0	0	0
9A.Williams, 2B	1-4	0	0	0