Brewers vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - April 22, 2024

Brewers at Pirates

10:40 pm • BSWI

Milwaukee Brewers

11-15

2 - 4

Pittsburgh Pirates

17-10

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Jones			4.14	6-8
J.Ross			3.77	3-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Brewers 11-15	+1.5-175	o7.5+100	+127
Pirates 17-10	-1.5+145	u7.5-122	-151

Monday 10:40 p.m.

April 22, 2024

PNC ParkPittsburgh

PIT -1+105

2.1u

PIT -162 (F5)

1.62u

MIL +120

... divisional dog opening total >8 on 3 game win streak Overall: 489-490-0,50% (ROI:13%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

MIL +120

0.5u

As good as Jones has been, they've been very conservative with him, which means you'll see plenty of bullpen, while Ross hasn't been as bad as his 4.94 ERA. The Brewers have a 40 point wRC+ edge against RHP, as well as a large defensive advantage with maybe the better bullpen too.

Under 4 (F5)-105

1.5u

PIT -130

0.77u

J.Jones u6.5 Ks+114

0.92u

J.Ross u5.5 Ks-148

0.34u

Ballpark pal projects 4.3 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -207 giving value to this number

PIT -145

$1.00

J.Jones o6.5 Ks-125

$1.00

PIT -135 (F5)

0.68u

Bet to -148

Featured Insight
Brewers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season -- fourth highest in MLB. Pirates have struck out 25% since the 2022 season -- second highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Pirates RPs have a strikeout rate of 30% vs right-handed batters this season -- highest in MLB. Brewers right-handed hitters have struck out 28% against LHP this season -- third highest in MLB.

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Opening Pitch: Zerillo's MLB Bets for Monday
Sean Zerillo•
Apr 22, 2024 UTC

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The Brewers are 28-0 (1.000) when they've had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .793.

Willy Adames has struck out in 26% of PA's since the 2022 season -- 12th highest in MLB-- 11th Percentile. Aroldis Chapman has a strikeout rate of 36% since the 2022 season -- sixth highest among qualified RPs-- 97th Percentile.

Rhys Hoskins is slugging .618 on non-fastballs this season -- 12th best among hitters with at least 30 total PA's-- 92nd Percentile. Jared Jones has allowed a SLG of .477 non-fastballs this season -- 10th worst among qualified SPs-- 14th Percentile.

Joe Ross has allowed a slugging percentage of just .200 (3 Total Bases / 15 ABs) on inside fastballs this season -- tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .424 -- 90th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Pirates are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Pirates' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 33 of Pirates' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	90-72	48-33	42-39	19-26	69-45
Brewers	88-74	40-41	48-33	43-53	44-21

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Pirates	61-92-9	33-43-5	28-49-4	17-26-2	42-65-7
Brewers	77-80-5	38-40-3	39-40-2	50-44-2	27-35-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	71-91	44-37	27-54	22-23	48-66
Brewers	97-65	52-29	45-36	59-37	37-28

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 21st	BOS	L 1-6	-1.5 L	U 8	BOS -155
Apr 20th	BOS	L 2-4	+1.5 L	U 7.5	BOS -120
Apr 19th	BOS	L 1-8	+1.5 L	O 8.5	BOS -115
Apr 17th	@NYM	L 1-9	+1.5 L	O 7.5	NYM +135
Apr 16th	@NYM	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	NYM -107

Jose Urquidy
SP
Urquidy is out with arm
Out
Endy Rodriguez
1B
Rodriguez is out with elbow
Out
Jared Jones
SP
Jones is out with elbow
Out

Easton McGee
SP
McGee is out with arm
Out
Garrett Mitchell
CF
Mitchell is out with oblique
Out
Coleman Crow
SP
Crow is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Ross, P	79	5.1	4	1
LH.Milner, P	11	0.1	0	0
RT.Vieira, P	33	2.1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Frelick, LF	0-3	0	0	0
1J.Wiemer, PH	0-1	0	0	0
1J.Wiemer, LF	0-1	0	0	0
1O.Dunn, PH	0-1	0	0	0
2W.Contreras, C	1-3	1	0	0
3W.Adames, SS	0-3	0	0	0
4J.Bauers, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
4G.Sanchez, PH	0-0	0	0	0
4O.Miller, PR	0-0	0	0	0
4O.Miller, 1B	0-0	0	0	0
5R.Hoskins, DH	1-3	1	1	2
6B.Perkins, CF	0-3	0	0	0
7B.Turang, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
8J.Chourio, RF	1-4	0	0	0
9J.Ortiz, 3B	1-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Jones, P	91	6	7	1
RC.Holderman, P	15	1	1	0
LA.Chapman, P	16	0.1	1	1
RH.Stratton, P	5	0.2	0	0
RD.Bednar, P	20	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.McCutchen, DH	3-4	1	1	1
2B.Reynolds, RF	0-2	0	0	0
3K.Hayes, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
4R.Tellez, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
4C.Joe, PH	1-2	1	0	0
4C.Joe, 1B	1-2	1	0	0
5J.Suwinski, LF	0-3	1	0	0
6M.Taylor, CF	0-3	0	0	0
7O.Cruz, SS	3-4	0	0	2
8H.Davis, C	0-3	0	0	0
9A.Williams, 2B	1-4	0	0	0