Braves vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - August 30, 2024

Braves at Phillies

10:40 pm • BSSE
7 - 2
Starting Pitchers
pitcherteameraw-l
Ranger Suarez logoR.SuarezPhiladelphia Phillies logo3.4712-8
Reynaldo Lopez logoR.LopezAtlanta Braves logo1.998-5

Braves at Phillies Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Braves
0-2
+1.5-185
o7.5-101
+120
Phillies
0-0
-1.5+154
u7.5-119
-142
location pinFriday 10:40 p.m.
August 30, 2024
Citizens Bank ParkPhiladelphia
Braves vs. Phillies Expert Picks
Sean Zerillo
Sean Zerillo
34d ago
Last 30d: 176-216-13 (-6.4u)
Over 7.5+100
0.5u
Bet to -115
Greg Matherne
Greg Matherne
34d ago
Last 30d: 35-38-0 (+6.0u)
Over 7.5-102
0.5u
Picks  Office
Picks Office
34d ago
Last 30d: 43-59-2 (-19.4u)
Under 8.5-125
1u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Ranger Suárez will take the hill for Philadelphia, carrying a 2.82 ERA and 1.19 WHIP into tonight's contest, having pitched 124.1 innings thus far this season. Suárez has been one of the more consistent arms within the Phillies' rotation, and when he pitches at home, he has given performances that are nothing less than stellar. His 6.3° average launch angle and 1.34 ratio of groundballs to flyballs hint at his ability to induce ground balls, his_irq issue specifically in terms of preventing extra-base hits and home runs. That groundball tendency is a big determinant when facing such power-hitting lineups as Atlanta's, neutralizing them from pushing mistakes over the wall. Suárez's barrel percentage also sits at just 4.7%, which explains that few hitters are taking quality contact off of him. His Hard Hit% of 35.5% further shows his ability to limit damage and make it tough on opposing hitters to find the type of contact that results in big innings. Given these metrics, Suárez is well-positioned to stymie an Atlanta offense that, while potent overall, has shown vulnerabilities, especially against left-handed pitching. Atlanta will counter with Reynaldo López, who has been equally impressive with a 2.02 ERA and a WHIP of 1.18 over 115.2 innings. López has been a godsend for the Braves, especially in terms of giving up strikes, with 88 this season. His recent form, in particular, is outstanding since, in his last three starts, he has managed to record an ERA of 1.22, showing that he is peaking in the right place. The artillery of pitches that López has relied on-so reliant on a four-seam fastball-slider mix-has kept hitters so off-balance and is a big contributor to such a strong strikeout rate, along with limiting scoring opportunities. Perhaps to the point most succinctly regarding López's dominance, he has faced the Phillies twice this season, permitting just one run in 11 innings of work-a clear indication that he can handle the Philadelphia lineup. The big factor here is he has dominated Kyle Schwarber to a tune of 0-for-9 with six strikeouts off him, one of the more dangerous power threats in the Phillies' lineup. If López continues holding down those kinds of key hitters like Schwarber, then the Phillies will struggle to score runs against him. Also not to be overlooked is the bullpen of the Braves, which will be ready in support of López and also plays a critical role in keeping this game low-scoring. They've just had really good Atlanta relievers, with a 1.12 WHIP and near the top of the league in strikeout rate. It's just more depth in the bullpen to know that even if López doesn't go deep, the Braves can still keep the total lower. For the most part, the bullpen for the Phillies has been the same, recording an ERA of 2.76 and a WHIP of 1.06. Its recent performance-most recently allowing just 3 earned runs over its last 23.2 innings-indicates it is firing on all cylinders. Neither team probably will be able to stage a major rally after the starters exit given the capabilities of both bullpens to shut down offenses late in games. The. Both teams have certainly had their struggles offensively in some key areas that further support the Under. The Braves, if nothing else, have power potential but have hit just .235 as a team with a low on-base percentage of .300. Struggles are magnified against left-handed pitchers like Suárez, as they have a .251 batting average but only a .313 OBP. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has the slightly better team average at .248 but faces a tough matchup in López, who has had their number this season. In addition, strong pitching can tend to neutralize the power hitters for the Braves, reflected in their relatively low home run rate against left-handed pitchers at 0.4 HR per game. That, coupled with Suárez's tendencies to induce ground balls, this could be a game where Atlanta might not be able to rely on the long ball simply to try and win. The Philadelphia offense has also struggled through hot and cold periods much of the season and with Alec Bohm day-to-day nursing an injury to his hand, the Phillies lineup could be even more limited in their ability to put runs on the board.
Grant Neiffer
Grant Neiffer
34d ago
Last 30d: 24-44-0 (-11.2u)
K.Schwarber o0.5 HR+450
0.25u
CeeJ Picks
CeeJ Picks
34d ago
Last 30d: 39-64-0 (+13.3u)
R.Suarez o4.5 Ks-130
1u
Lines at Lunch
Lines at Lunch
34d ago
Last 30d: 114-102-2 (-0.0u)
PHI -145
1.45u
Johnny
Firefighter Bets
Firefighter Bets
34d ago
Last 30d: 98-108-0 (-19.2u)
R.Suarez o4.5 Ks-130
0.77u
Stephen Keech
Stephen Keech
34d ago
Last 30d: 72-33-1 (+20.2u)
R.Suarez o1.5 Earned Runs-131
0.76u

PRO Insights

Braves logo

Braves

ATL Insights
  • Braves logoThe Braves have allowed just 1.3 runs per game in the first five innings over the last week -- second lowest in MLB (7 games). The Phillies have scored just 1.9 runs per game in the first five innings over the last week -- fourth lowest in MLB (7 games).
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Phillies logo

Phillies

PHI Insights
  • Phillies logoPhillies have won 57% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since last season -- fifth best in MLB. Braves have won just 40% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since last season -- third worst in MLB.
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Braves vs. Phillies Notes

Prop Odds Comparison

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Line Movement Tracker

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Braves vs. Phillies Public Betting Percentages

21%

Bets%

79%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Phillies
75-8739-4236-4564-6610-21
Braves
75-8735-4640-4160-7115-16

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Phillies
78-76-836-40-542-36-356-68-622-7-2
Braves
58-94-1025-53-333-41-745-77-913-17-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Phillies
95-6754-2741-4082-4812-19
Braves
89-7346-3543-3876-5513-18

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Aug 29thATLW 5-4-1.5 LO 8.5PHI -165
Aug 28thHOUL 0-10+1.5 LU 10HOU +102
Aug 27thHOUW 5-0-1.5 WU 9PHI -138
Aug 26thHOUW 3-2-1.5 LU 8PHI -198
Aug 25th@KCW 11-3+1.5 WO 10.5PHI +120

Braves vs. Phillies Injury Updates

Braves Injuries

  • Chris Sale
    P

    Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.

    Out

  • Ronald Acuna
    OF

    Acuna is out for season with knee

    Out for Season

  • Austin Riley
    IF

    Riley is out with hand

    Out

  • Spencer Strider
    P

    Strider is out for season with elbow

    Out for Season

Phillies Injuries

  • Spencer Turnbull
    P

    Turnbull is out with back

    Out

Braves vs. Phillies Box Score
Braves Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Reynaldo Lopez logoRR.Lopez, P96661
Pierce Johnson logoRP.Johnson, P25121
Joe Jimenez logoRJ.Jimenez, P32100
Dylan Lee logoLD.Lee, P12120
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Whit Merrifield logo1W.Merrifield, 2B0-5000
Jorge Soler logo2J.Soler, RF0-3000
Jarred Kelenic logo2J.Kelenic, LF0-1000
Marcell Ozuna logo3M.Ozuna, DH2-5200
Matt Olson logo4M.Olson, 1B2-4101
Ramon Laureano logo5R.Laureano, LF0-4001
Ramon Laureano logo5R.Laureano, RF0-4001
Michael Harris logo6M.Harris, CF1-4000
Orlando Arcia logo7O.Arcia, SS2-3222
Sean Murphy logo8S.Murphy, C1-2212
Gio Urshela logo9G.Urshela, 3B1-4001
Phillies Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Ranger Suarez logoLR.Suarez, P78464
Jose Ruiz logoRJ.Ruiz, P14110
Max Lazar logoRM.Lazar, P24112
Yunior Marte logoRY.Marte, P24201
Tanner Banks logoLT.Banks, P9120
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle Schwarber logo1K.Schwarber, DH0-4000
Trea Turner logo2T.Turner, SS0-4000
Bryce Harper logo3B.Harper, 1B3-4000
Nick Castellanos logo4N.Castellanos, RF0-3000
Bryson Stott logo5B.Stott, 2B2-4111
J.T. Realmuto logo6J.Realmuto, C1-4111
Brandon Marsh logo7B.Marsh, LF1-2000
Austin Hays logo7A.Hays, PH0-1000
Edmundo Sosa logo8E.Sosa, 3B0-4000
Johan Rojas logo9J.Rojas, CF0-3000
Weston Wilson logo9W.Wilson, PH0-1000

Braves vs. Phillies Odds Comparison

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Braves at Phillies Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
Braves
0-2
o3.5-101
u3.5-127
Phillies
0-0
o3.5-133
u3.5+102