Braves vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - March 29, 2025

Booked on ProphetX 🔑 Braves ML +122 (ProphetX) 3u 🔨 time. I really like the Braves to bounce back here. Sharps and big money on em. Cease is vulnerable to get lit up. This is more of a git feeling play but I like it.

4.25% ev

#BQ

3.65% ev

Tailing @cawright95 who was on this first. Lopez reached 72 pitches in his last spring training start so we’re likely looking at 85-90 pitches tonight. Still, he struck out just 5 batters over 13 spring training innings and there were reports of diminished velocity. Most important for me is that the Padres only had a strikeout rate of 17.6% last season, lowest in the Majors.

Lopez's velocity on all his pitches was down significantly during the spring. He averaged 93.3 MPH on his fastball in his final spring start, down from 95.5 MPH in 2024. The late-season shoulder issue, followed by diminished Spring Training velocity, is the exact opposite of what you'd want to see with Lopez given his career arc. He finished the spring with a 5:4 K:BB across 13 IP. He maxed out at 72 pitches. San Diego was the most difficult strikeout matchup in the league for righties in 2024. Their 17.8% K% vs. right-handed pitching was 1.4% lower than the next-closest team (Houston). Tonight's projected lineup had a 17.1% K% against righties last season.

4.22% ev pinny line at -181